they had their "two top biotech analysts" chime in on EXEL. One was negative and said that the company was appropriately valued based on its future opportunities, and the other said the same with upside for Meteor and celestial to multiple times the share price, but expected the share count to double due to likely dilution in an equity raise (I guess I am not alone about the dilution concern), and gave a somewhat low probability for Roche stepping in unless the price gets much cheaper as they weren't as bullish on the melanoma market for the combo since it is very competitive.
Fidelity has been an owner of shares for years. They are so big, they have to own everything accross their many funds. Same applies to most of the top 25 buyside firms.
They can especially since there are only about 30 employees, but more likely they will just issue a ton of new ones at the much lower strike price.
The article in SA state that if reduce it fails that the PV is greater than the current market price. I think that assumes that the FDA would not revoke their intial approval for 500 TG. I wonder what makes the author think they won't?
You expect what you want. Hope it works out for you, because I am holding the same bag. But the difference is, I have analyzed it and drew my own conclusions and suggestions. You can disagree, but I thought that the best contributions to the board are multiple opinions that are grounded in facts and experience. How do YOU get past the high dilution risk?
I would be happier if the Bakers bought a big position of the equity (not the debt). They are more focused on opportunities in the small cap biotech space and have made some great calls. When they buy big, the stock typically moves up.
I am happy about this (better than them selling!), but this is peanuts for Fidelity, a couple of million bucks. Somebody at FMR might be as emotional as us about this stock and averaging down. So don't wet your pants.
You are forgetting Meteor and the other trials. Which ones are you saying should be ended? That is what the cash is for. Pay attention!
You are forgetting that they need to spend the cash to complete Meteor at least and the trials in process that follow it. In other words, the cash is spoken for through the Meteor read out. The best solution is to partner with a big pharma or well capitalized BT. Avoid funding the trial costs but share in the successes. Use cash from partnering agreement and miles stones to reinvest in new discovery and to reduce debt. Equitize at reasinable prices some of the debt, preferably the maturing debt. These moves would avoid massive dilution and sustain the company for the long term IMO. That is my view of what the strategy should be.
I believe at last count there is around $350 million of total debt. MTC is nnot going to cover much beyond the interest on the debt and some corporate overhead if they are lucky.
I think that a partnership is much different than an outright sale of assets. I would not advocate an outright asset sale (as compared to a full company sale) as it would reduce pipeline diversity and might not leave much beyond paying down debt, but of course, that depends on what price they get (presumably cobi) verses the future potential. But proceeds from striking a new partnership on cabo indications may have to be shared with Debt holders, which isn't a bad thing (debt reduction). there are still milestone payments to receive and hopefully trials are funded by the partner.
This is a complicating factor here that needs to be considered. there are layers of indebtedness. There is both sub debt and secured debt. The sub debt holders will need to assess whether they are better off (lower recovery) keeping the company going or restructuring? I have not done the analysis yet, but this may determine what happens to the company as much as Meteor. More than likely, the Deerfield debt which matures in 2015 can not be restructured in a manner which is negative to the other debt holders whichout their consent. They could equitize, within the terms of the indenture but they may not be willing to do that earlier if they feel that it could result in lower recovery in default which would be likely IMO.
It truly amazes me that this board has no LT holders that see these issues. Frankly, ST owners should be equally concerned and call IR about it. There has been a plethora of discussion on EXEL's science but little on risk mgt and finance except when that do a capital raise. Unless you are a short, the issues for the company short of a successful Meteor read out will clobber us all. Are the smarter long term contributors to the board unconcerned? I am interested to know. I really don't care about the new kids on the block, and they might all by Jonesy under his latest alias's anyway.
Mgt stated that they have only enough cash to fund through the Meteor read out, or were you not listening. They will be required to fund the rollout of the cobi combo with Roche, in later half of 2015, and they won't have funds to cover the burn rate on additional indications. Do you listen to the company's conference calls? Why do you think the stock hasn't responded to the Cobi read out. I want the stock to go up as much as the next guy, but be prepared for the mother of all EXEL dilutive equity raises if they don't partner up. Smuck.
You talk in circles and then say nothing. I am through with you. You haven't answer the biggest question on liquidity because you cant without undermining your reason for investing in EXEL. I gave you plenty of opportunities. I don't put many people on ignore, but its time for you as of now.
Lets see....No (partner on cabo, not "go it alone"); Yes, selling the company or partnering - neither which are "folding" the company; No I don't believe that doing so now would be at distressed terms because we still have cash (for now) and Meteor has yet to read out so a partner would be optimistic (but the later reading out trials would be preferable to partner because they have the highest trial costs likely in front of them). If we wait until we run out of cash, then you might say that we might get distressed terms and if Meteor fails, again I assure you we will get distressed terms. But not now; Yes, "give up their go it alone strategy". The company's biggest success to date in my view is their partnership with Roche with the cobi combo which may lead to other opportunities that they would have never gotten on their own. Many have said that mono therapies are a thing of the past, so partnerships will be all the rage (and acquisitions). It is pretty common for developmental stage biotechs to partner tofurther developmental, clinical trial costs, marketing costs and muscle and deeper experience in getting across the finish line. Such partnering not only doesn't "fold" a company but ensures its ongoing survival as a going concern and minimizes dilution with upfront partnership fees and progression milestone payments (all non-refundable). Again this is all far from folding.
Understand this: You tell me to short. I am not a short investor. Thats not my thing. I would prefer to sell covered calls than naked short. But I assure you that a looming liquidity problem and significant eggs in the meteor basket will draw plenty of shorts which is why our stock has not moved on the cobi news. The shorts know what I am saying is all factually correct. The only way we can knock out the shorts is to cure the liquidity problem without diluting the stock (as raising new equity is a shortie's dream scenario).
So tell me how do we get past running out of cash genius.
I would bet money that the big fish are well aligned with me on this one. You really can't think they are happy with MM's leadership and the stock price. Does that truth hurt?
You keep saying that my suggestion is to fold the company. Please provide quotes, because I think you are delusional. I, and I am not alone, believe that we need to find partners interested in the cabo indications and I also beleive that now is the time to deal with their looming liquidity problem. Oh yeah, you waived your wand and made it go away because you don't believe they have one and wall street will come to the rescue. Thanks for providing proof that you can't read a financial statement. I am glad that you have so much more confidence in EXEL at about $1.70 or whatever you paid for it with a comet failure than everyone else had at $4 with Comet yet to read out. But if MM does nothing about running out of cash, its debt and Meteor flops, you will be right next to me on the Group W bench.
Thats your response dawg? MM has to worry about his job. That is the point. Change direction or face the consequences. I think that he will get the point. Especially when he gets it from LT intelligent and loyal shareholders. What, you think that he doesn't meet with the institutional holders and he doesn't hear the same things directly from them? You are such an idiot?
I am still waiting for your response to my questions? Or is that all you have. Clearly, that is a retorical question that I know the answer to already.