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Array BioPharma Inc. Message Board

urabt2 69 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 27, 2015 11:39 AM Member since: Jul 28, 1998
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  • Reply to

    SEC Filing today

    by twodogsfracking Jul 24, 2015 4:48 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 26, 2015 5:09 PM Flag

    A best efforts underwriting masked as a low ball "fully underwritten" deal, if thats what they want to call it, after announcing and testing the market, Is what type of activity continues to smell rotten about wall street. Management needs to be smarter about this stuff. Many other biotechs do a much better job at raising capital efficiently and effectively IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SEC Filing today

    by twodogsfracking Jul 24, 2015 4:48 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 26, 2015 3:58 PM Flag

    A best efforts underwriting requires little risk to underwriters and should not have garnered a fee anywhere near what was paid, and perhaps less of a discount to the trading sp.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SEC Filing today

    by twodogsfracking Jul 24, 2015 4:48 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 26, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    Ernie, "fully underwritten" is not a vague term on the street. I have seen a lot of underwritings in my day and this just tells me that this management team still has a lot to learn about finance and wall street. If we are fortunate enough to be bought out one day, they will probably give away the store to cheaply then too.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Valuation of EXEL post METEOR

    by pvaluens Jul 25, 2015 9:13 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 25, 2015 1:36 PM Flag

    Really important post. Thanks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What's the technical message...

    by wilderguide Jul 24, 2015 11:15 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 25, 2015 12:33 AM Flag

    I think the market like the base of news behind it and the strong chance for another important positive news event in November. Should set up nicely for that baring any negative competitive surprises.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SEC Filing today

    by twodogsfracking Jul 24, 2015 4:48 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 25, 2015 12:30 AM Flag

    So here we go: The company stated in a PR early in the week, Tuesday after the close I think that they had a "fully underwritten" deal with several banks. The SEC filing (see post above) states that they entered an agreement two days later. Clearly the press release was false and there likely was a letter of intent or similar agreement, but until Thursday's agreement, there was no "fully underwritten" offering. This is what still stinks about wall street and corporate America. Now I understand that companies such as EXEL are highly speculative, particularly as compared to public companies on average, which means the banks are entitled to higher fee income to underwrite to compensate for the higher risk. But transactions structured like this are relatively riskless following the signaling and public announcement, and falsely using terms like "fully underwritten" when it is closer to a best efforts underwriting in reality. The difference between the $5.40 and the $5.076 is the income that the banks keep for their risk, which in my opinion wasn't earned. The fee should have been lower, or the underwriting agreement should have been signed and nailed on Tuesday, perhaps with a formula dependent upon Wednesday's trading average or closing price, adjusted for the dilution and then the fee taken off of that. Just ranting, but these guys are like deer in the headlights when wall street comes knocking, and we keep paying for it. This time with over $8 million in fees, not to mention the fact that given the strength in the sp (never really came close to $5.40), they might have gotten better execution.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why $5.40

    by itssofine2 Jul 24, 2015 10:58 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 24, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    I suspect that the closing price the day after the announcement was discounted by the dilution % and an additional 1 to 2% margin for underwriting profit. That is how I arrived at my $5.25 to 5.40 range. There shares should all be out in the market soon and then we should see the $6 to $7 range.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dilution

    by urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:52 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 24, 2015 1:18 AM Flag

    Given the high end of my range estimate was the price, I would agree that EXEL wisened up this time and did in fact get a fully underwritten deal. Goldman likely did not fully underwrite until after they drove the price down. The timing of the underwriting guarantee and setting of the formula are critical. They appear to have learned from their past mistakes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dilution

    by urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:52 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 24, 2015 1:15 AM Flag

    The knuckleheads at EXEL can call it what they want. I have been involved in wall street transactions for 30 years and even started out auditing Investment bank underwritings. A fully underwritten deal involves a negotiated formula for the number of shares and offering price as part of the underwriting. Noone wants a failed deal, so expressions of interest are there to gague the depth of demand for the number of shares and the size of the book for a price within a range taking into consideration the dilution and a discount to mitigate somewhat the risk of underwriting and offer a potential profit to the underwriter. There is risk to this for the underwriter. What you suggest above implies little to no risk to the underwriter and is not the real world. It describes a "best efforts" underwriting, which is not the same thing as "fully underwritten".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dilution

    by urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:52 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 24, 2015 1:06 AM Flag

    Priced at $5.40. The high end of my estimated range. very good. We should move up from here next week IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 by urabt2 Jul 23, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    So today, the PO recipients will have an idea of how many shares they will get and likely many institutions will short shares with expectations that they will get new shares at a lower price. This typically causes the sp to dip. Hopefully that ends today and the nextr few days the shares will recover and as I said before, with liquidity concerns gone for a while, the sp should climb.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 by urabt2 Jul 22, 2015 9:54 AM Flag

    Failed late stage trial. Rare Baker Bros major stumble. Shares plummet.

  • Reply to

    Dilution

    by urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:52 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 22, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    Your definition ernie is inconsistent with a fully underwritten offering. They likely agreed on how the price is set and that is not based on interest. It may be the average price for Tuesday or the close for wednesday, and may take that price and discount it for dilution and an underwriter's margin to ensure interest. This is all negotiated before the PR is put out, otherwise it isn't "underwritten."

  • Reply to

    Dilution

    by urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:52 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 11:08 PM Flag

    So tomorrow's trading should be interesting before and after the underwritten price. Hopefully it is set already or it ain't really a true underwriting. They should have Canter do the best efforts over a few months for them to get the highest and best execution like CLDX and ARRY and others have done. At least they dumped Goldman Sucks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dilution

    by urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:52 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    One more thing. With all the favorable attention on EXEL this week on strong volume, it is possible that after the offering is completed (as long as the PO $ ps is reasonable, say $5.25 to $5.40 IMO) that the sp could rise nicely. I saw this happen two times immediately following POs for CLDX. Liquidity is fire not to be played with and removing that risk can really boost a stock when the issue is removed from the discussion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 by urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    Looks like around 11.7% dilution to the total share count. PR says that the offering was underwritten. Hopefully they are smarter this time and it was calculated on the closing price today so that it is underwritten at around $5.35 ps. I sold around 4 thousand shares yesterday for the first time (just under 10% of my holdings) at around $5.73, out of fear that they might do this and not get burned again. I am not criticizing until I know the underwriting price, but I hoped that they would have waited until the cobi approval or a partnership deal to drive the sp up and minimize the dilution. So be it. Liquidity is very important.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    ECC 2015 Vienna, Austria 9/25-9/29

    by wilderguide Jul 21, 2015 7:27 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 7:47 AM Flag

    Seems a bit distant for something material to keep under wraps like a partnership for example. what did you have in mind?

  • Reply to

    sec filing - look at last line

    by oncolyte Jul 20, 2015 6:56 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 20, 2015 7:15 PM Flag

    Look at the real last line of the filing: 7 million stock options vested due to today's news.

  • Reply to

    Convert strike price

    by erniewerner Jul 20, 2015 11:47 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 20, 2015 4:22 PM Flag

    There is no rational reason for holders of converts to convert earlier than maturity. So the issue is whether EXEL would be in a good capital position to call them. I suppose they could issue new common shares to do so which wouldn't be a bad thing for common shareholders as long as it is at a good price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Convert strike price

    by erniewerner Jul 20, 2015 11:47 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 20, 2015 3:04 PM Flag

    " the bonds can be converted early."

    I haven't read the prospectus in a while. Converted early by the holder or are you talking forced conversion by EXEL?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ARRY
5.95+0.29(+5.12%)Sep 2 4:00 PMEDT