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Array BioPharma Inc. Message Board

urabt2 88 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 26, 2015 5:09 PM Member since: Jul 28, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Anyone has binary event calendar for EXEL ?

    by annasaaru May 23, 2015 3:12 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 May 24, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    This is the make or break event for EXEL. Because of the company's debt, cobi will support just that plus a little, and any real opportunity to make money for longs rests in METEOR and other readouts to follow. If the read out is favorable, the unfortunate likely outcome which will also cap upside is a another needed dilutive equity raise, but hopefully at least at levels which most of us will be in the black until we build on METEOR with a cobi combo approval in August and a solid CELESTIAL readout in the next few years. Just being realistic folks. I have yet to sell a share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Line Bonds

    by felix_urman Jul 16, 2015 7:49 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 17, 2015 1:35 AM Flag

    There are no golden parachutes for execs of bankrupt companies knucklehead. The reason no to file is because the execs have stock, restricted stock and stock options that will all be worthless, not to mention the strong potential to be unemployed when the bondholders take over ownership, the board and our shares. Buying back the debt at a discount is a good idea as long as it isn't coerced. If they are coerced, the company will be deemed a defaulter by the rating agencies and their ability to attract capital in the near term will be harmed.

  • So the advisory committee voted FOR approval of Regeneron's new LDL reducing drug. They did so without proof that their drug which helps to loweri LDLs increased overall survival. Though they want to see results of a trial before very wide use. Does this seem like a double standard as compared to Amarin, or is it just me?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The value for the cabo franchise spiked today. rather than scrap and save to fund continuing trials, dilute with share issuance or give away low risk late stage indications, i would prefer a sale at no less than $25 today. After the cobi approval that number would be even higher.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 by urabt2 Jul 23, 2015 10:23 AM Flag

    So today, the PO recipients will have an idea of how many shares they will get and likely many institutions will short shares with expectations that they will get new shares at a lower price. This typically causes the sp to dip. Hopefully that ends today and the nextr few days the shares will recover and as I said before, with liquidity concerns gone for a while, the sp should climb.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jul 20, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    Well, then you ascribe no value to Celesteal and many combo opportunities? Ifigure it this way, $25 per share with 196 million shares = $4.9 billion market cap. You add $368 million of debt = $5.27 Billion enterprise value. In the pharma/biotech space, acquisition multiples run at about 3 to 4 time PV sales. So using a 3.5x average, the PV need to be about $1.5 billion in sales. Cobi on the melenoma indication alone on a PV basis is at least $400 million. Thyroid is already over $40 million. So we need to get another $1 billion of PV sales. Meateor sales are expected to reach over $400 million in the US I think and lets say the rest of the world generates $300 million more (not sure about this number though) for a combined PV of about $400 million. Now we need $600 more. So we turn to Celesteal. Let say we have peak global sales of around the same as Meteor (guessing here) but it takes several years longer to achieve than Meteor, to arrive at a PV of about $250. Now we just need another $350 million. Now you people don't think that there is at least one more potential combo (I think there are very many) that could result in a PV of $350 to reach this enterprise value after today's news? I think other new indications and combining with immunotherapires could lead to several home run combos that would provide a buyer with a healthy return above the $25 asking price (the buyer would need to achieve a 15% to 20% ROI to do the deal). That is how I get to $25. Anything less is leaving to much on the table if you are a long term investor like me. In this puppy since 2008 and have a good sized position that I hope will stay in the black from here on in.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 by urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    Looks like around 11.7% dilution to the total share count. PR says that the offering was underwritten. Hopefully they are smarter this time and it was calculated on the closing price today so that it is underwritten at around $5.35 ps. I sold around 4 thousand shares yesterday for the first time (just under 10% of my holdings) at around $5.73, out of fear that they might do this and not get burned again. I am not criticizing until I know the underwriting price, but I hoped that they would have waited until the cobi approval or a partnership deal to drive the sp up and minimize the dilution. So be it. Liquidity is very important.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dilution

    by urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:52 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 21, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    One more thing. With all the favorable attention on EXEL this week on strong volume, it is possible that after the offering is completed (as long as the PO $ ps is reasonable, say $5.25 to $5.40 IMO) that the sp could rise nicely. I saw this happen two times immediately following POs for CLDX. Liquidity is fire not to be played with and removing that risk can really boost a stock when the issue is removed from the discussion.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone has binary event calendar for EXEL ?

    by annasaaru May 23, 2015 3:12 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 May 24, 2015 7:52 PM Flag

    Indeed that is true and I have been banging the partnership gong for years. This mgt team is either too stupid or too greedy, and they have done nothing to mitigate financial risk, but only increased it. There is enough business risk in biotech already without the additional layer of financial risk, and now we suffer from providing the shorts with a tool to play with for years (buy the converts and short the stock for a risk free return). They should have partnered cabo years ago and let the partner fund the prostrate cancer and all the other trials. Just like with cobi. They are best at inventing new molecules to fight cancer, not design and fund trials. Do what you do best. So, I agree with you. I have not considered a partnership, but at this stage, that now depends on the upcoming readout, so we bare all the risk. I have around 40k shares, which may not be alot to many people, but a sizable one for me. I am underwater with an average cost of around $4.68. At this point, I am hoping for at least $6 or $7 (higher would be great too), and praying that it doesn't go to $1 again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Will EXEL go high up to 15 ?

    by annasaaru May 30, 2015 6:25 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 May 30, 2015 7:59 PM Flag

    debt is high and cash is not. Blew their wad on failed prostrate trials instead of partnering. Also, made the mistake of issuing converts which are a short seller's dream.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Mountain of options issued at $3.13

    by wilderguide May 29, 2015 3:37 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 May 29, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    I don't want to burst any bubbles but EXEL has made me generally a "show me" kind of guy. There are two folks on each side of any trade. Perhaps alot of longs are hedging by selling covered calls?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A good ASCO for Exel

    by oncodoc02138 May 31, 2015 3:28 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 May 31, 2015 5:59 PM Flag

    Amen Onco. Couldn't have stated the situation better. Thanks. GLTL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jun 18, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    People are dying.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What if...

    by hensley_1957 Jun 19, 2015 10:54 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 20, 2015 11:00 AM Flag

    last time I checked, we closed over $3.50 yesterday.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A quick note on the Convertible Debt:

    by maxx22xx Jul 1, 2015 9:34 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 1, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    This is the most liquid bond market in history. The market is not the point. the point is that the stock price is manipulated lower by the significant number of shorts, many of which have no risk due to their ownership of the converts. without the contribution by convert holders to that pool of shorts, perhaps the sp would be higher and we could do a meaningful and less dillutive equity capital raise. Converts are bad for EXEL. The company was badly advised and badly led. Period.

  • Reply to

    A quick note on the Convertible Debt:

    by maxx22xx Jul 1, 2015 9:34 AM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jul 1, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    "-companies do not want to lay out the cash for redemption". - Only true if they don't have the cash. Converts can be very dillutive and expensive if the stock is running up. So typically, companies that can afford it do wnat to pay cash to take out the converts.

    Converts are a terrible vehicle for developmental companies like EXEL and lead to excessive short selling without the typical prospect for a short squeeze as convert holders will short the stock usually after some run up in order to achieve a risk free return on the convert investment. In other words, they don't get scared when the stock runs up because they have the implied warrant in the convert, and they don;t get scared about the convert exposure if the stock tanks because the value of their short increases to hedge the convert. Then they are left with the risk free 4.25% coupon to enjoy for four years. What a country!

  • Exelixis Announces Start of Phase 1 Trial of Cabozantinib in Combination with Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab in Patients with Advanced/Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma and Other Genitourinary Tumors

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone has binary event calendar for EXEL ?

    by annasaaru May 23, 2015 3:12 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 May 24, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    I totally agree Lagatik. I thought of selling half my shares at a loss to hedge against a weak Meteor readout. However, I have been in the stock since 2007, and now that we are at the doorstep, I guess, I have gotten use to riding this roller coaster and am hoping there is more upside than down. If I were at breakeven or in the Money, I would very likely sell down as a hedge though. Lets see where the stock goes during ASCO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    1 Drug Will Make or Break These 3 Biotech Stocks

    by wilderguide Jun 14, 2015 12:40 PM
    urabt2 urabt2 Jun 15, 2015 2:05 PM Flag

    Slam!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • urabt2 urabt2 Jul 20, 2015 11:55 AM Flag

    You watch, the Baker Bros will be buying at today's price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

ARRY
5.75-0.01(-0.17%)Jul 30 4:00 PMEDT