One such player, Continental Resources (you may have heard of them?? --- they're the largest producer in the Bakken) cashed out $4B (yes, that's with a B) in hedges recently and went net long in a big way.........
Actually, I'm laughing at you -------the largest traders are net long fool.............
Percent of Open Interest Held by the Indicated Number of the Largest Traders
: By Gross Position By Net Position
: 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders 4 or Less Traders 8 or Less Traders
: Long: Short Long Short: Long Short Long Short
All : 55.4 30.9 70.9 50.6 42.7 27.5 52.5 39.1
Old : 55.4 30.9 70.9 50.6 42.7 27.5 52.5 39.1
Other: 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
It's right there in BP's daily regulatory filings --- most unusual and it's the first time a break in their daily share buybacks has occurred --- this is a tell tale flag that's something underway --- same thing happened during HP's merger talks with EMC.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Speaking of the Clean Water Act (CWA) and fracking which is now totally exempt under the CWA (the "Halliburton Loophole")---- any chance CWA gets amended to include hydraulic-fracturing and their costs per barrel explode?
My take is when the first real "documented" case of ground water poisoning happens (100s of "undocumented" cases have already happened) is when public opinion forces the Congress to remove the CWA exemptions the fracking industry current "enjoy" and hydraulic fracturing costs per barrel go up exponentially.
Stock buyback program has now been paused/suspended for almost two weeks -- with $35B in cash sitting on the books today and a worst case $17B CWA fine (payable in maybe 7-10 years after all appeals --- pennies on the dollar with inflation) there's no reason other than talks are underway --- same thing happened during HP's merger talks with EMC last month.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You can bet BIG OIL will be looking for ways (e.g inversion) to start avoiding these new taxes starting next year
From the American Petroleum Institute (API) web site:
FY2015 Budget Calls for Nearly $97 Billion in Targeted Tax Increases
on America’s Oil & Natural Gas Producers
The Administration’s FY2015 Budget proposal includes over nearly $97 billion in tax increases on the U.S. oil and natural gas industry. Studies have shown that these tax increases would discourage oil and natural gas production, lead to fewer well-paying American jobs, increase our reliance on foreign imports and potentially contribute to higher energy costs for consumers. Further, these tax provisions are in no way “taxpayer subsidies” and are not unique to our industry. They constitute standard business deductions (some available to all other industries) and mechanisms of cost recovery – a fundamental and necessary component to a national income tax system.
The company ran 10,000,000 miles of testing on this new series.............body panels are 10x more resistant to "dings" too because of the combination of thicker gauge panels and the new adhesives. I think the truck will win Motor Trend's Truck of the Year...........
Pricing is just about in line with the competition but the features (aluminum engine, body and that incredible engine) make the new F-150 a true winner. Fuel economy is not published yet, but I added the 3.55 axles (towing) which may lower the previous year's stated numbers.
The industry is already the target of Washington with Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips paying 37%, 39% and 74% tax rates respectively -- the three companies paid $290B in taxes from 2008-2012 alone.
The sting of the new Obama tax hikes starting next year will make these players think hard about M&A, inversion, etc.
Or alternatively, just head to London where the top rate is 21% vice the US top rate of 40% -------saves half in taxes and realize another $10B- $15B annually in cost savings from the merger.
Hardly -- there's a long string of strategic, inversion-based re-alignments in the oil patch (Noble, TransOcean, Weatherford) ...........................some of the big boys (e.g XOM) would love inversion -- snapping up BP and re-incorporating in Ireland for example with tax rates at 12.5% vice the US rate of 35%.
This company is in play and even Bob Pisani picked up on it down at the exchange.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
BP's proven reserves alone, with Brent hovering around $80/barrel, are worth $20-$25 a share more than recent stock prints ------------EVEN factoring in a worst case ($17B) scenario on CWA penalties.
While I don't own the security for the likelihood of M&A, there are a couple of interesting developments of recent that tend to confirm something's afoot --- including the fact they have "paused", "suspended" and/or outright stopped the buyback program. With approx $35B in cash in the bank and an official announcement of a new $10B buyback program, there's no reason for the above other than some sort of deal in the works IMO.
It sure looks like they downloaded most, if not all, of Lockheed's intellectual property..........we're getting robbed (blind) by the minute.........
Note: Had it not been for the expiration of Abu Dhabi's concession, BP's upstream would have actually grown 4% YOY --- a win will put upstream back on a growth trajectory.
Abu Dhabi will announce the winner very soon ---- they LOVE BP's technology..........
BP: Oppenheimer analysts renew BP takeover talk
11/07/14 3:47 PM
The combination of low oil prices and the possibility for an oil spill settlement make BP (BP +0.3%) a takeover target, according to Oppenheimer analysts Fadel Gheit and Luis Amadeo.
The pair believes spill liabilities and Russian exposure have made BP the cheapest stock in the sector, with its implied reserve value of $12.60/bbl 55% below the peer average.
A merger involving BP and one of its peers would create the world’s largest oil producer and could generate $10B-plus annual cost savings, the analysts say.
I see where the Oppenheimer analysts have now put out a piece on this possible takeover..............while I don't own the security for that reason, I do see where a clear case for $65 / share is very possible on a takeover. BP (after all) does own the second largest portfolio of oil reserves of the integrated majors and while oil is down recently it will not remain so for long.
Irrespective, I'm still not selling on any takeover move.
I agree --- the non-performers "occupying" the White House have low personal and professional standards and it shows. Obama has little, if any, work ethic and Boozer Biden was caught lying BOLDLY again (by CNN) about speaking to the independent candidate Orman in Kansas.