Remember CI tweeted a year or so ago that he saw NUAN in the same light as HAIN which was a 4X in 3 years. It wouldn't seem likely that 1. He would have changed his "guess" this soon. 2. That a sale now would get more than a 50% premium to current price ($25 +/-) 3. That the fundamentals will kick in, utilization of the recent couple of years dramatic increase in infra structure costs including head count, cloud, real time billing, etc, for at least another several quarters. Since we have nearly zero retail investors here, the retail speculators don't have much upward influence on the price except sporadically. IMHO
Code for Revenue (sales) is "bookings" Code for the Expense side of P & L is "payroll/headcount" (if its 12,000 that's double in the last couple of years).
12,000 employees, exactly my point. How long ago did they have 6,000? Clear case of 3 steps back for 1 forward to build out infrastructure. imho
The operating fundamentals have not changed since the price was in the 20's. The sentiment and accounting methods have. No value for forward potential (institutional only), restructured recognition of Revenue, increased development expenses (increasing capacity presumably from R&D to Marketing), etc. CI is content to get this Pig (no reference to Onyx intended) in shape before putting on the Lipstick and showing up at the dance. Of course CI and I could be way off and VR turns out to be a bust, or NUAN doesn't compete. IMHO
Do you think RR will see another round of $30mm. His "ravaging" occurred as a result of the stock price getting ahead of itself. Maybe should give him another load if he gets it to $50? Program trades only until some big news. imho
So let's say AAPL builds its own VR universe that doesn't require any of NUAN apps, patents, etc, and the new products take the World by storm. The rest of the smart phone space will need to come up with a similar capacity to compete. Will AAPL share their great VR with the others or will they need to also build out their own OR outsource? AAPL going it alone, organically or otherwise, and making VR indispensable will be the tide that lifts all boats. Somewhere around 2000 the wizard Bill Gates said VR will be dominate in 5 years, so far he may still be correct by the timing is 10 years behind. It's not like VR has found its footing and NUAN missed the boat. In fact NUAN continues to increase it share of the market. The market has not yet developed at some folks predicted pace. RR took his pay me now strategy, which if VR never happens would be a master stroke, if it does he has minimal skin left in the game. (Jobs w/AAPL, unlike Gates with MSFT,unlike Bezos w/AMZN, etc)
These recommendations are based on conventional algorithms that do the "diligence" mechanically. They may be right but not on purpose. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day. imho
CI's son, wife and any other member of his "control" group is typically included in his 20%. I would however, expect that much of the rotation in institutional shareholdings are also CI advocates. I just head him on the "Half Time" at CNBC where he spoke of dollar general as a "no brainer" where he made $200mm so far, even though he may have sold a little early. i.e. Him getting out especially incrementally doesn't "kill" the price. He told us some time ago he's looking for a "triple" +/-, I suspect he still is. Don't forget the pill is part of his concession not to become an "activist", BOD seats, etc. He also said he still like's AAPL which just hit a split adjusted new high after its plunge a few months ago when investors gave up. I also like the CI, back of the envelope technique of valuing businesses. The Contrarian would also be plused with Opal, a long time advocate being down on the POS.. imho
until 8/19/2014. This of course can be modified anytime the BOD wants including giving CI more "rope". In the meantime he is pat with 60mm shares. Who knows the details of the hedge he put on with options needing $18.50 or so to be in the $$. Strange as it may seem, I think he's satisfied with the Company and willing to wait for more follow through. Samsung, et al, may not have been up to the price he had in mind!!! Don't sell the Goose for a few months of eggs. Looks like no fireworks tomorrow!!!
another open following the market with a bit of extra due to float. These are the Bigs controlling a stock price with muscle that only institutional positions can exert especially with a non retail POS. Laughable that CI would make any decisions based on his "legacy" or "perception of the public". These Bigs wars are interesting in that nothing is left to chance, long, short, spreads, straddles, etc. Tomorrow we see if CI is ready to pull any triggers. I doubt it and rather think he will wait out the vertical growth (they already have most of the applications and clients) and revenue recognition. Unless of course someone blinks and makes a run at it. Samsung, IBM, MSFT, APPL, et al.
billy, I agree this will not continue, beyond what has already been committed of course, with CI involved. The excessive insider comp alone is enough to improve the bottom line by 10c a share. Of course this would be a combo of what they don't get going forward and holding the shares (as RR has been doing lately).
This is the kind of stuff (putting lipstick on pigs) that CI thrives on, knows how to spot and modify. imho 750K didn't do much to the price, obviously a direct preset deal.
billy, were these options expiring? If so he could have exercised them for cash (borrowed or otherwise), then been subject to the tax on the gain. In the end it was his best/only option to sell them, at least enough to repay the loan and taxes. This is the result of paying employees in company script rather than cash. RR is probably, by now in a financial position to do some accumulating. Does anyone think RR doesn't think NUAN has a bright future?
VR is a winner IMHO. NUAN, thru RR owns the advanced space. RR has bad rep for taking his $ off the table and booking it, unlike Buffet, Gates, CI, Bezos, et al.who have their $ in the paper. We are old enough to know good ideas with dominant market position are good bets, albeit a convoluted route to prosperity of the stock. Big difference here remember is that NUAN is totally owned by the bigs, except of course that owned by us genius spectators who cajole the idiots who are playing the game. Fire the coach! Red Sox, Yankees, Texas. What a great sport this gambling against other gamblers is. Nuan makes more profit than Tesla and Amzn combined but is stuck with those rational big investors who need to see the results rather that hopers like us. Onyx is a kid so will probably see Nuan prosper in his lifetime, maybe not us old folks. IMHO
What happened to the CFO quit, CEO being investigated? Bookings continue to soar, deferred Revenue the same. GAAP EPS is irrelevant, Non GAAP is OK. Margins are diminished a bit, can they make it up in volume. Competition not a factor, in their mind at least. I guess if the recasting of rev to on demand takes 3 years that makes the shortfall harder to recoup. On the surface, and in light of the cc presentation, I would be happy if the market reaction tomorrow is as modest as the AH. Seems like the pricing is deteriorating as fast as the volume increase. Not much spoken about the buy out. Don't forget the other shoe is the CI date. No mention of that? Could he take it Private at $18?
Nice pop early, nothing left in the tank until some indication. Also, if anyone knows anything its not showing up in the trades. Fwd look will be the key metric today. Sale, Merger, Revenue, EPS, etc. Best to expect on trailing seems to be status quo. imho