I believe the Bookings metric is the key. In fact they are only counting "new" bookings and not renewals. Presuming the margins hold, expenses are controlled, R&D and New Hires, new Infrastructure cost remain or diminish as a proportion of the overall operation, Steady Rise is a pretty good guess IMHO. However, in the chance that something BIG happens that rapidly increases the implementation of VR, NUAN appears to have the capacity to meet the demand. I would think we could work our way to a little higher base in the meantime. Also, the Monopoly continues to expand as this space gets more demanding in both depth (advanced applications) and breadth (expansion geographically).
Three sources of delta: 1. New accounts (horizontal) 2. Growth in existing accounts ((vertical) 3. cash flow reported from conversion to subscription model. Then margins based on cost of producing, marketing and admin of the products. Then costs of R&D, infrastructure development and other non current items. I don't see how any of these could have gotten worse, but also don't see enough upside potential that the report will create a rocket ship!!! Forward guidance will be important, but NUAN investors don't typically give price points to what RR "says" he's going to do.
gk about says it all and what keeps us "addicts" rolling up our sleeves. "CI is our shepard, we shall not want ...he lets us lie down in green pastures ...... and get covered with dung ...... so far!!!
There appears to have been a significant drop in this category OR it is being "counted" differently. It's now around 85% down from 97% a few months back. Could it be that there are more retail buyers getting in as publicity about VR expands?
How many people see the Poison Pill as "protection" for the largest shareholder. This way no one else can come along and gain control with the notion of taking it Private for a song. CI has all he wants and doesn't want anyone else getting ideas to "Trump" his position. In concert with other "strong hands" any bottom feeding hostile group would be disincentivized. I think CI put the PP in place, AND likes it!!! BTW the BOD can waive the PP any time CI wants them to. Of course nobody will care if they can't get the Revenue and Profit metrics to work.
No deal. CI is not in this to get his money back. This is a real company with a monopoly on the most critical tech ingredient of all --- input protocol!!! He and his other institutional cohorts are waiting for the fundamentals to firm up and ride the wave up, exiting as their individual targets are hit. I'm still hanging on to his HAIN analogy. (who says I can't write Fiction?)
Dark until cc. Another setup for potential -- or not! Vertical, horizontal, international, subscription model maturing, medical, security, pizza, endless. Maybe Alibaba could use a "toy" to go with it GOOG/AMZN look-a-like? After all it's the Asian alphabet that gets the most from VR. imho
What a cool novelty item! One Bot per customer, how efficient!!! I'm betting Watson as the Crown Jewel and next "sliced bread" app for VR.
Opal, You avoided my question (so you got the spirit thing right ---lucky guess!!!) I said IF in the end he does get it DONE and NUAN becomes a star (Jobs was not always a Rock Star), will all be forgotten and forgiven? LaBron (once the Goat of Cleveland) is now, once King James!!! mwb gave a straight answer, Macy's here we come!!, Onyx even cut some slack (I agree that if no one in the 98% institutional shareholder group seems to be outraged, that's good enough for me). Is Opal cheering for RR demise "ove" the success of NUAN? al a Rush's famous quote "I hope he fails"!! opps!!! time for a refill!!
Onyx, So let's say just for the fun of it that the Recurring Revenue continues to expand as could be expected and suggested by peso, onyx, etal and the unit expenses stabilize with a more experienced and efficient work force and margins increase as NUAN monopoly (only game in town at the high end of VR) becomes more applicable resulting in more investor entities getting interested to the point of moving this POS to new highs. Should Ricci still get the "boot"? Or will he become the Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Zuckerberg, Musk, et al? With a few differences and based on the Biographical information on these and numerous others considered as "Titans", a whopping success and adoption of VR in the future will undoubtedly cast Ricci as the Principle Architect. Remember Jobs was "fired" at Apple, which promptly nearly failed, then he came back and the rest is history So far the "smart money" is hanging in there with Ricci, in spite of what Greenberg and Krammer say!!! I'm glad to hear there are still some CA's doing Spirits!!
Teador Raza, in a Seeking Alpha article make a case for valuing NUAN at 50% higher. ($22.72 or so I recall)
The points are the same as have been made by us amateurs for a while plus a 7X recurring revenue multiple that tech fetches upon a sale. The 65% of recurring revenue that was last reported however is growing from a. existing contracts converting b. new customers c. existing customers using more. How can CI make substantive public comments regarding NUAN as an Insider? Ricci took his chips off the table previously by exercising his options, next up is the shareholders. Stay independent!! Show me the $$$! imho of course
GTAT and NUAN are about as far apart in similarity as possible. GTAT has no intellectual property, pure commodity play, the product GTAT provides is available elsewhere. NUAN has a unique product not available at their level anywhere else. For the most part it is not a Direct Retail Consumer product, except for some of the Dragon packages. The market is through Branded Products, Mobile, Enterprise, Medical, Security, Client Management, Call Management, etc. VR at this level is NOT a commodity and currently has NO serious competitors. especially internationally (China, India, Indonesia -- 3 of 4 largest). Why is it trading at such a paltry multiple with all this opportunity in front of it? (So far my optimism is NOT shared by the market!!!!)
I saw him on CNBC just before noon and he emphasized the VR feature of his and all other wearables as a key ingredient. A bit of a different persona that the typical "talking head" or "guest" nonetheless very well spoken and passionate about his project. Nothing in the general news because unless you know NUAN is the VR component, it didn't get mentioned.
Market up 1% for every 3% for NUAN. Same on the down side, then sideways. I expect the Institutions that control the price to get it in line before the day is over. Imagine what happens when the rest of the Cash rich, and getting richer with the strong Greenback, discovers this stock that so far has been hoarded by a small pack of Money Centers. The problem of course, IMHO, that I haven't harped on for a few months, is that when the metrics of the operating business get in place, these same Bigs will privatize the Company for themselves, then break it up for the value of the pieces, leaving us former shareholders in their dust!!! Time will tell. We won't know for a couple of weeks if this bouncing Cat is dead or alive!!!
Standpoint has opined before. 4/1/14 at $17.30 said Hold, 5/16 said Buy at $15.28, 6/30 said Hold at $18.77, now say buy at $14. Pretty good calls as it turns out!!! --- so far!!!!
The key metric her imho is "going to do business". i.e. this is a work in progress, but will become the standard. This is the sole reason us NUAN freaks have been hanging on to this POS for all this time? so come on people!!! what are you waiting for? Opal and I would like to see it in our lifetime, already!! Opal, do you still have a TV antenna on your roof? I switched to Cable months ago myself!!!
Opal, As an "older" folk myself, with Grandkids in their 20's, Kids in their 40's, I urge you to at least "try" the VR thing. You don't need to buy the Dragon package, it's available as an "app" free or a couple of bucks on every device. At least use it for surfing the web, navigation, emails and texting. We already use it in our interface with banks, airlines, etc, etc (no choice). Also activate the app to have your emails "read" to you!!! Got to go now -- time for my AM snooze!! then lunch and PM snooze, then dinner watch Jeopardy, Wheel of Fortune and Bedtime. Who says us Seniors don't have a "robust" life? Oh Yea, and check on how NUAN is doing!!!