Great Earnings. P/E at share price of 25 would be ~27.5. China still not contributing substantially on profit side. 1st analyst asked a question about RAISING dividend. 2nd seemed more knowledgeable and had a decent question about US mint sets and their impact since the baseball coins were apparently a major win for Q4 and have been for Q1 2015 as well. The response is that the mint is always issuing collectible sets but that it is fair to say that the baseball one was particularly sought after.
I added today. I could add more if it continues to fall, but how low can this possibly go? It sounds like before the end of the year there will be an announcement naming the big 5 company that has begun testing. Prior to that though there will probably be another quarter of underwhelming numbers.
If there's mostly radio silence from the company between now and the big 5 announcement, with only the Q in between, I feel like the shorts are free to keep pounding and we are destined to just drifting.
What is out there that could steady the ship? 2nd wave licensing announcement or a Discover announcement with a company like Amazon would be good obviously, but some of that is offset by the threat of (thankfully measured) dilution. The stock has seemed to respond to trade show demonstrations so maybe that can turn the tide somewhat.
Basically, if I fire my last bullet at this thing, I don't want it to be 5 or 6 pts too early.
*100 million so far.
Also, they said on the call that they made the mistake on the pricing of the dsal stuff, and are consciously avoiding the same issue for the O&G stuff.
That being said, I would not be surprised if I ended up doubling down as low as sub 3.50. Sounds like it will take some time to see any requests to turn to orders and for orders to turn to revenue.
Didn't he use to not sell below 14? It looks like he's moved that # up to $20 so that's for me kind of an executives view of the new floor on the price.
I finally jumped in for about 1/2 of what I'd like to have after the earnings. The reason I don't have the other half is exactly what you're mentioning. The call sounded outstanding, but none of it is hitting the bottom line any time soon. The way I see it, it's going to come down to a race between bad earnings and good PRs. They have the cash and no debt to weather it as a company, but what worries me is that it sounds like they sign a ton of non disclosures so the contract announcements might be few and far between. I feel like I could easily be averaging down close to three. However, if they do get a big contract that they can announce it might leave the 4-6 orbit and never come back.
Cash only went down 1million in the last 4 quarters, and while last year the company broke even in this quarter the coin stats page projects this year will show a net gain. Cashflow positive on a yearly basis shouldn't be too far away and there is more than enough to cover dividend in the mean time. That being said, historically I played the pops here so it is an adjustment to have to sit long.
The titanic stuff always sells incredibly well when auction piecemeal, but it's almost an apples to oranges comparison. Think of the number of people who have enough money to splurge for five or six figures on a neat little thing to show to their friends vs. the number of people or even consortium who have 100+ million. This is one of those situations where it's worth exactly what a person will pay and there's really no other way to value it. (actually, it might be worth less than that. A few conference calls ago I remember a response being given that, reading between the lines, sounded like someone was willing to pay OVER the 189m but they were blocked by the court)
That's why I think it's kind of foolish that they're having everything reappraised. Obviously the appraisal is going to be even higher than before especially with the IP involved, but if no one would spring for $189m then what's the point? They could say it's worth a billion dollars, but it means nothing.
Now, I still believe it will sell for an amount greater than the current market cap of the company by a large margin, but whatever the number is the appraisal will have no bearing.
Subscription. Subscription revenue includes subscriptions for products and services, is generally recurring, paid in advance and recognized over the term of the subscription.
License. License revenue originates primarily from licensing our technology and patents where we receive fixed license fees and/or royalties as our income stream. The majority of license revenue is derived from contracts with IV, Nielsen, Verance and Civolution. Revenue from our licensed products have minimal associated direct costs, and thus are highly profitable.
There is a major fall off in licensing recently because the IV contract mentioned above went from having to make minimum payments to only having to pay once a certain profit threshold is hit. However, the company is working on a new bundle of patents to be licensed at sometime in the future.
Also, I'd try looking at the most recent investor presentation on their website. I always find those are useful.
The short answer is licensing technology. The barcode and magazines are a zero and small potatoes, respectively right now.
You've got to learn how to do DD. I am a lazy somewhat recent post collegiate, but I at least know how to get the basics. Anyway here's some help. First, the annual report breaks revenue into subscription, service, and licensing defining them like so :
Service. Service revenue consists primarily of software development and consulting services. The majority of service revenue arrangements are structured as time and materials consulting agreements, or fixed price consulting agreements. Most of our service revenue is derived from contracts with the Central Banks, IV and government agency contractors. The agreements range from several months to several years in length...
I cut this in half because my post wasn't going through...
Seriously. Predictions on this board of up to $5 and "conservatively $1" coming this week. I never thought people investing in a pot company would be so greedy. If the share price hits a quarter this week, you will have one of the best returns of your entire investing careers and at that point I will short it with all I've got.
For now I'm on the sidelines just enjoying the madness of this board. And since I don't like to root for anyone's misfortune when I don't have any skin in the game... good luck I guess.
low float and one big holder wanted to sell? It's really only down if you're looking from the all time high. Over just about any other timeframe it's still way up.
If insiders bought I might be interested. But I can't imagine this collar being a hit. This is how I think of it. An infant can't do much to tell it's parent how it's feeling either, and that's a human, and people don't yet do this type of monitoring. Now, it's possible that people love dogs more than infants, and that people with dogs have more disposable income, but I'll believe it when I see it.
On the other hand, maybe the margins on these are incredible so they don't even have to move too many.
The "New York" based bank is probably out of Schenectady. But hey, if they can turn and burn this thing I'm all for it.
Now that I have long term instead of short term gains, China is the number one reason I'm holding.
However, I'm guessing that this Monday business is going to take a few quarters of observing before you can use it to make accurate predictions. I remember that the PCGS estimates were off at first when you were using them and then you figured out a way to back your way into better predictions.
For now, the best we can probably do is observe growth in that Monday number. Maybe on the next US national holiday when we get two days of international data free from US noise then you can evaluate to see if Monday's are high/low/average vs. other days of the week.
Regardless, I appreciate what you're doing just thought I'd offer some insight on how to potentially refine the process.
Sentiment: Strong Buy