I have heard same thing .....channel checks nothing illegal about it(in addition management gave guidance) . He has gone against and now he is with Twtr. If you look at the financials and listen to managements guidance it tends to indicate 2015 will be big year for Twtr... I think his sixty something price for year end was conservative. I have it at 75 and honestly next year I think they blow into high one hundreds.
His analysis was mostly technical but if you look at the fundamental case he is on target. This is same thing FB faced when they were at 20. No one really knows till the Q comes out but their guidance and wall streets sentiment has definitely changed.
LOL ,,,Wishful thinking. This Q will surprise to the upside.... I also wish your scenario would come true so I could increase my position, but that is unrealistic. I have large position for some time now and have no worries .... Everyone has an opinion but look at the financials and review the business plan and be careful you don't underestimate the potential this company has going forward.
You know I heard that interview and it left me wondering why anyone listens to guys like that. I think Twitters a short here. Honestly I don't care what he think give me facts to support the short. That goes the same for his dislike of the stock. Then he says its a complicated model. If he doesn't understand it then don't make a call short or long. Going long on FB and short Twitter because he thinks Twtr is overvalued is simply a horrible analysis of either company.
Your obviously new to investing but if your looking for a p/s=2 in technology then I suggest you look for one that makes cement. Have you looked at the financials? Investors like me are not worried about todays stock price but instead are buying into the future and at these prices your simply accumulating. I bought my first position at 30 and have been accumulating all the way up. This week alone bought three separate times.
Short this and you won't sleep at nights. I on other hand just keep buying every dip.
So 29 sounds reasonable . I loaded up at 30 .. Did you at 29?
Although your numbers seem logical currently the street is already pricing in next years numbers. Your use of P/E or Peg is not valid in a profit less org. Price to sales and if you use that then it is line with tech companies .
I think it can... Lets look at numbers by end of year 2.3-2.5 Billion of Revenue .... so at 20 times sales that gives you a 46 Billion - 50Billion Market cap.. Currently it is at 30Billion Market cap so lets look at stock price and market cap
60 dollars a share 38 Billion
70 dollars a share 44 Billion
80 dollars a share 50 Billion
So these numbers are for Dec but you really should be running this somewhere in the summer.
Now run the same numbers in Dec which at same trend should be 4.2 and 4.5 billion for 2016
Use same multiple 20X sales and 84 Billion and 90 Billion 135 a share 145 a share
Oh and Guy is going on a gut feeling ... even a small pullback needs to tested before a climb
Traders follow those technical analysis ...Spent whole day spinning at 48 ... Risk reward says goes lower ...Puts volume should pick up this week and from a fundamental perspective 30 billion market cap still pricey ... It is a bit early and although everyone is waiting for the Facebook moment this is not it.
Stats tell you goes lower. The # of users is big issue on next earnings call... It sounds like a 13-16 million users if so then we see beginning of a slow facebook moment.
Pullback needed. Options indicated a 12% swing before earnings and somehow it blew up to 48...Momentum and short covering ...100 million volume.... We will test 44 and retest that 48 area.... Traders not gonna go long at 48 ... too soon... The earning were good but not that good.
Technicals say a pullback is in order probably 44 and a retest of the 48 area. I would not be surprise to se 42-44 range neither. Fast Money trader all in agreement a pullback first and then we test that 48 range again. See twitter headlines video there.
Yahoo will have cash but 30B will not suffice. 40B plus. Marissa could pay for Twtr but /I think Twtr management has one bullet left. They will not impress but they may just be idle till next Q.The product development will give them a q to figure out things. After the next Q Costelo is out of bullets. He either proves Mau's can be accelerated because of either acquisitions and product development or he is dead in the water. He will be forced out. This Q he has a break. I do think they should beat on the top line because according to them they have tons to monetize. I for one don't like they sold positions and if those numbers don't meet investors should really give them hell.
Own both positions but I doubt that is happening. 35 billion still too cheap. The number is north of 40Billion. FB has plenty on its plate already It will not dilute shareholders .
Google on other hand should buy it. It should pay 40+ but even then I don't think twitter will sell. The potential is just to great and kinda obvious. Costello might not be best CEO but company is monetizing and YOY Revenue growth is amazing. Few companies can compare.
Google has to pay up. Simple as that. Even if they do not sure if management will sell it. They have faith in their business plan and if successful leave too much money on the table. If we run the numbers in valuation assuning their 11B in revenue idea this stock goes first to 100Billion valuation and then work up. Why sell for 40Billion??????????????? Only if you want to cash out.
I think they have set themselves up very comfortable in stock options and the company has 3.5 Billion in cash.... They need to continue to buy companies like zip dial that extends their Mau....they just picked up an excellent one at 30-50 million,,,,,good deal, Now use that 3.5 billion wisely and they can buy their way up!!!
Article kind of weak, nothing new revealed. The facebook comparison is lame cause the life cycle of companies are different. I am also an investor in FB but I remember a day at 20 a share that everyone questioned Zuck. This could be Twitters moment. They are monetizing and user growth/reach will continue as the refine the product and new products come out. The company is in a sweet financial position and does not need to sell to google. Google has its own issues. Twitter just needs time.
Noto is smart and wont let Twitter overpay on acquisitions so internal growth is what will lift the stock price. In 10 months the company will be doing 2.3 billion in sales. At 24B valuation today that is 12X sales. The year 2016 will be crucial cause that should be the year they accelerate eps.
At end of 2015 Twitter really should be compared to Facebook. If they ramp and are successful todays 24 Billion valuation is a bargain. Time will tell.
From Google perspective they should try to buy it. Peck said north of 40Billion not at 40B. Management will not sell such a potential at bargain prices. They may be tempted to sell at 65 70 range. Again why sell at that range they most likely will hit that number in 2015.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Twtr has the cash to hold and see if business plan works. Buyout would have to be at high premium. Why sell your potential to another company. As long term shareholder I rather wait than sell out. If Google were to offer say $70.00 today I would say ok. If Google offers $70 later in 2015 I would say no. The Revenues are just growing at a pace that would not make sense later in the year. I see us at $70.00 regardless in Dec.
Yes there could and should be a bidding war. FB and Goog both want this property just at a cheap price. Everyday or Q that goes by that price goes higher. We are one year away from a probable 2 Billion revenue company at 12X Sales which is reasonable. In one year we look cheap at 40 a share. So the 65 dollar range is most likely a fair value at that point.
The question is why would Twitter sell itself with the growth and potential about to start. I doubt it.
Carl may buy into twitter in 2015 with all this in mind. The most important thing is for Twitter to continue to monetize.
Yahoo Purchase why??? Yahoo is a company with a who knows business plan and only makes money because of an investment in Alibaba. Why would Twitter dilute itself to pay a Premium Yahoo does not deserve.
Best thing for Twitter is to just continue and build out its business plan without all these transactions.