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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

uy1517 34 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: May 25, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Pinterest and Twitter merger

    by uy1517 12 hours ago

    Snapchat is currently valued at 10 Billion. I think they would want 15B but I don't see Noto selling that deal. It is too dilutive. The company needs to do a deal now that valuation at 25B gives them leverage. This is were Costelo has been slow to react. They really should have done deal when stock was in 50-55 range. Noto is all about numbers so other deals may make more sense.
    I want to an aggressive move by Twitter ...

  • Well it is something to argue about. It would mean some dilution for investors but it might be worth it. The current valuation is 5 billion and they might not be interested but what if they do merge. The negatives is the have no real revenues and that is huge negative. The positive side is they are just starting to monetize. If they do a stock deal and say value Pinterest at 8-10 billion...That would give us a combined market cap of 35B at current prices. The selling point here is that both these organization together could potentially give the big boys a new and extremely dangerous competitor.
    I want an aggressive move like this and I do not mind dilution. I think the merger would immediately create value and the timeline would also be shorter.
    I think both parties win here . Pinterest gets to go public gets awesome valuation and get cash it needs. Twitter gets another incredible property and users growth is a mute point.
    I know Noto had plans for that convertible debt. The conversion will happen in the future and will be dilutive but if he pulls a mega deal like this he will have raised capital and the companies to make this business plan happen.

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 24, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    Yes I was in that same dilemma at exactly 30. I wanted that other leg down but at 30 it was too good a deal to let go. I started buying hard at 30. I have raised my optimal price to 32 cause don't think we see 30 again. Yes if the market rolls over we see thirty but it doesn't look good going into the Santa Claus rally.
    I started buying FB hard at 20 and we both know that number is gone forever. Twtr is a younger company with less revenues but if they turn that corner this thing goes vertical. I don't see that happening this year my best guestimate is Dec next year. In the meantime we can both play our strategies out.

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 24, 2014 1:40 PM Flag

    Just Curious I have my buy orders at $32.00 a share that makes it a 20 billion market cap. What are your thought at $32.00 a share ? Obviously from a option trader point of view. Are you still short at that point?

    Just a clarification that 2 Billion is asset but yes the liability is obviously on other side of balance sheet. It is convertible debt so it could be dilutive to shareholders but gets rid of debt. It gives them room to do whatever they need to work that business plan. 2 Billion is quite a bit of leverage.

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 24, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    I think we are at a interesting moment for this company. We will see longer term and yes we can both be right. I always keep an eye on options either for protection or longer term.
    Regardless we both know any news positive or negative will create incredible volatility.

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 24, 2014 12:59 PM Flag

    So your trading options... trading options only limits your risk and you will swing from calls to puts at a moments notice. I have no issue with your short term trading and I use them whenever needed but your positions swing fast depending on factors. Investors are looking longer term and fundamentals should be your variables.
    Tell me any company growing at this pace that does not have Expenses growing as quickly. Look at it as an investment in the future.
    If they come up with new products or buy companies you will close your position fast.... I on other had will be buying on dips and holding long term. Sitting on 3.5 billion in cash and growing Revenues will eventually translate into EPS.

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 24, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    1&2 175 million is mostly on stock compensation...
    3 . Look at non Gaap numbers because the 175 skews number
    4. Not true.... ?????? That is simply a straight out lie. They have no cash issues. This was simply a smart financial move. Those bonds are convertible and they may or may not exercise but it simply was a great move.
    Won't bother with rest of list .... Short the stock if your so positive... I highly doubt you will.
    On the other hand I will continue accumulating slowly. I already have large position and I will continue accumulating on dips.

  • Reply to

    buy or not??

    by david.dorkhan Nov 24, 2014 10:58 AM
    uy1517 uy1517 Nov 24, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    David I will give you my reasons to go long. The potential of growth is incredible and Twitter's Revenue line is producing incredible growth. Yes many would look at the slowdown in active users as a negative but the new disclosures of non users going to the sight is incredible. I believe this is where management has the responsibility of strategic management and monetizing it. I like you am not concerned at the near term and see 40 as a logical bottom but we have to understand it is selling at a premium.
    I hope it does drop and I can buy more at a better price. I didn't sell on the rise to 50-55 and looking long term is the way to go. If Noto's plan is correct then in 5 years 40 will be a bargain. If he is wrong and we see the company stumble I think Google Apple or even Facebook will buy Twitter.
    I am not looking for safety that is why I am in Twitter. I expect to review financial Q after Q and see Revenues growing fast. Don't buy any stock unless you know what your getting into. This stock swings hard so volatility better be a comfort zone for you.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 21, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    It is important for the stock to continue forming a base around 40. It is a good solid indication the stock has found a base. It is a mirror image of Facebook. Social media stocks are out at this moment but may turn at any moment. These are the moments to accumulate .

  • Reply to

    I guess I am real Twitter growth story believer

    by fatedecides21 Nov 14, 2014 12:45 PM
    uy1517 uy1517 Nov 14, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    My intial is 30.50 and bought heavy till 37. I have reevaluated and I believe that 30 bottom should now be 40. I doubled my shares at 40 and if any pullback into thirties I will buy more. This company is just starting and investors here need to see top line growth. I love that we have capital and have no worry of financing. We just need patience. This company has so much potential just came out 2 years early to the public market. This is our advantage. I will keep watching Quarter to Quarter and Costelo better keep to the plan.

  • Reply to

    S&p rating timing is "malicious"

    by fatedecides21 Nov 14, 2014 9:44 AM
    uy1517 uy1517 Nov 14, 2014 11:22 AM Flag

    Just saw this article
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/billfeingold/2014/11/14/twitters-convertible-bonds-more-rating-agency-irrelevance/?partner=yahootix

  • Reply to

    Another good time to sell...right now.

    by morebeer4mee Nov 14, 2014 10:09 AM
    uy1517 uy1517 Nov 14, 2014 10:58 AM Flag

    Lol ....Just the opposite just bought more shares. I doubled my shares and looking to buy more. The Risk reward is too good here. If you short this I would not sleep well at night. You could wake up one morning and lose your home on this position. Lol .... I sleep just fine. I am giving Costelo a bit more time but regardless the investment is safe. Google Apple and Facebook would all love a chance to take this company over.

  • Reply to

    S&p rating timing is "malicious"

    by fatedecides21 Nov 14, 2014 9:44 AM
    uy1517 uy1517 Nov 14, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    I agree. The disclosure was timed with the analyst meeting. We have to look at it from the positive perspective Twitter has cash and can do what it wants to grow. In addition it only proves what an incredible financial move that was on Anthony Noto's part. The S&P rating honestly is already known by smart investor simply because this is a High risk investment. This dumb rating is behind the curve and Twitters objective is still on track.

    I have learned that when Wall street is to negative normally it is time to buy. In Baba's case it seems to be a bull run and few have negative things to say about Baba. I agree the slowing of China economy and inexperience has its dangers. A+ seems too bullish. Even Jack Ma seems worried about the optimism. They have many hurdles to leap now that they are a public company and want to do business in the US and Europe.

  • Reply to

    TWTR is one sick puppy

    by knowurtrades Nov 10, 2014 4:32 PM
    uy1517 uy1517 Nov 11, 2014 12:38 AM Flag

    Yes stock is sick and sentiment is negative. It looks like its down for now. CEO has lost confidence of shareholders which means price will go down. The analyst call on Wed will most likely be another negative. They are just waiting to pounce on Costelo. Unless he turn it fast and that won't happen. Investors gave Twtr one year and year is up. Twitter needs time and only way to do this is getting new CEO. That will give board another year and revenues at 2.6 billion. The comedy bit is over for Costelo . I am sure board is feeling this downturn.

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 7, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    Lol !! That is the problem your thinking Global Population. How many niche companies have 3.9% of Global Population as users? How many are monetizing with next Q estimates at 450 million? Oh and lets now forget how many niche companies have 3.8 billion in bank?
    When I was a Facebook buyer at $20 everyone and there mothers talked bad about Zuck. At 75 a share everyone wishes they had purchased at $20. You need potential and this product has it.
    I bought my initial purchases in low thirties..I would welcome a visit back too load up.
    Problem here is simple a CEO that is not pivoting fast enough and investors who are not patient. This is what creates opportunity.

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 7, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    Agree totally. The past is not forgotten and investors should not forget. I don't listen to anything he says.

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 7, 2014 1:16 PM Flag

    The niche product has 284 million users worldwide... What a dumb statement. This is where you really have to understand your company and its potential. Cramer understands and his idea of a buyout is simply a smart company like Apple will monetize this quicker than Costelo and his circles idea. The company is growing leaps and bounds but it should be growing faster. I am holding position here but would gladly buy more at 30.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 7, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    Perception on wall street is Costelo is lost. Extremely hard to reverse that perception and drawing circles does not help. Board really has to move they cannot be passive on this especially since Twitter is all about real time. We need a real time decision cause Wall Street does not forgive unless you perform. The idea of being purchased is crazy your just giving the purchaser the LT gains. That is not what Twitter investment base had in mind. That is Costelo sole responsibility. Gotta GO!!

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 6, 2014 1:25 AM Flag

    Just watching Sportscenter heard Twitter at least 6 times during 10 minutes. This company has incredible potential just the CEO is not on board. His selling 25% really means he needs to go ... That is the last thing I want to see from a CEO. Why put my hard earn money LT in a company with the leadership selling. I need action from our board.

  • uy1517 uy1517 Nov 6, 2014 12:47 AM Flag

    Normally I would agree but the revelation of Costelo selling 25% of his shares has me wondering. It has been odd the way Cramer is been so persistent and now this new information. Honestly the timing is too odd,

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