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Seagate Technology Public Limited Company Message Board

v1kes_won 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2014 3:21 PM Member since: Jul 28, 2003
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  • Reply to

    The Hedge Fund Short Shills on CNBC

    by v1kes_won Aug 19, 2014 4:10 PM
    v1kes_won v1kes_won Aug 21, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Forgot to mention:

    BTW: Did you hear gravity gripe about my response???????

    The reason nobody responds to you except me and people don't recommend your posts is that 97% of what you post is nothing but whinny, self righteous political garbage for the far right or Obama Bashing , which btw got your posts banned/removed from the WDC board, or has zero content about the drive stocks or investment.

    THINK ABOUT IT EINSTEIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    PS-I do give you high marks for finding that solicitation a couple years ago for paid shills, ooops "IR specialists", to post on these message boards.

  • Reply to

    The Hedge Fund Short Shills on CNBC

    by v1kes_won Aug 19, 2014 4:10 PM
    v1kes_won v1kes_won Aug 21, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    What's the matter runt are you upset that?

    Your SFB tea party friends, a number of whom reap huge benefits from federal farm subsidies, have given up trying to cut food stamp benefits for the poor?

    Or are you still upset that your cake eater, white cap moron didn't win the White House?

    FYI, your understanding of what causes inflation is truly laughable!

    Monetary policy which has been expansive for the past five years has obviously done little to fuel inflation.

    Yes, we should see some modest wage inflation next year, but that will be a healthy thing. However,

    1. Population demographics, wage demands and energy prices, the three major factors that fueled high inflation during the 1970s have all been benign or disinflationary.
    2. Due to the greed of your exec and banking friends in the top 1%, there has been a tremendous erosion in the buying power and net wealth of the middle case. Since 2003 in 2013 dollars, the median household wealth fell has declined from $87,992 to $56,335.

    If high inflation was on the horizon due to lax monetary policy why has the yield on 10 year treasuries dropped as QE II is being spun down?

    THINK ABOUT IT EINSTEIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Reply to

    HTCH up 110%

    by v1kes_won Aug 19, 2014 4:19 PM
    v1kes_won v1kes_won Aug 20, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    HTCH ran to $6.50 last year after it provided a forecast of improved suspension shipments, then it took one step back.

    Agree, there is a lot of speculative trading both on the upside and downside that moves the stock, so it takes a iron cast set of cajoles to own it.

    "Most recent gains are due to the shift to WDC, since they are still pretty much cutoff from STX's biz"

    Incorrect, over the past year business has doubled to STX, now over 20% of shipments, this coupled with the following are the reasons for the recent rise:

    1. HTCH projected suspension shipments will rise 10% to 15% this quarter versus 5% expected drive TAM growth.
    2. HTCH margins highly sensitive to factory loading, margins could double this quarter.
    3. HTCH announced new opportunity of supplying suspension assemblies for optical image stabilizers used in cell phones. While small ships initially, this higher ASP/margin opportunity could grow significantly.
    4. Further ramp of suspension assemblies in Thai plus other measures should reduce cost and BE shipment level
    5. After stagnating in the first six months this year, enterprise drive shipments expected to grow in 2H14. Enterprise drives employ more suspensions and HTCH sells enterprise suspensions to everyone.
    6. Ramp of dual stage actuators and other new programs offer share gain opportunities
    7. HGST currently buys 60 M suspensions/qtr from HTCH's competitors, while HGST's owner, WDC, is HTCH's #1 customer. If MOFCOM restrictions are eased, HTCH could get a significant part of HGST's suspension business.

  • Reply to

    The Hedge Fund Short Shills on CNBC

    by v1kes_won Aug 19, 2014 4:10 PM
    v1kes_won v1kes_won Aug 20, 2014 12:04 PM Flag

    QE II is going, going, gone.

    Despite that the 10 year rate has declined over the past three months. What does that tell you about how much rates will increase? Not saying they won't increase, but it will be no BFD!

    Money now coming out of Europe into our market is behind the recent market rally. In case you missed it, the recent economic news is the best we have seen in years:

    1. Further record earnings are expected. The current consensus earnings forecast for the SP500 calls for corporate earnings to rise 13% in 2015 from record levels this year
    2. The second quarter GDP rose 4%
    3. The U.S. has posted the strongest six months of labor gains since 2006
    4. Consumer confidence rose in July to its highest level since October 2007, well above economists' expectations
    5. Chinese stocks are soaring
    6. Second quarter earnings came in better than expected

    Throw in an oil boom and low inflation and I see the party continuing for the bulls, if crazy Ivan can cool his tool.

    However, to throw a bone to the bears, two issues, btw you won't hear about from the CNBC talking heads, will continue to mute the economy:

    1. The baby boomers are saving for their retirement not spending
    2. Over the past 30 years, the middle class has been badly squeezed in this country and their buying power has been eroded by tight-fisted companies who have no problem in jacking up exec salaries.

  • v1kes_won by v1kes_won Aug 19, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    In case you missed my posts from earlier this year about HTCH, please not stock up 110% over the past three weeks on high volume.

  • I know Gatrz would say why do I even bother with them, but I can't resist exposing these shills for what they are.

    This morning they had Robert Shiller on, AGAIN warning about an over priced market. FYI, Nobel-Prize winner Robert Shiller wrote a piece in this weekend's New York Times suggesting that stocks "look very expensive right now" and that investors should be worried.

    In the article, Shiller wrote, "The CAPE ratio, a stock-price measure I helped develop -- is hovering at a worrisome level...nothing I've come up with is a slam-dunk explanation for the continuing high level of valuations. I suspect that the real answers lie largely in the realm of sociology and social psychology -- in phenomena like irrational exuberance, which, eventually, has always faded before. If the mood changes again, stock market investments may disappoint us."

    Later in the day, they had a Wharton professor refuting Shiller. Professor Seigel stated that the Shiller CAPE ratio, which is based on prior 10 years earnings, is highly skewed by the great recession of 2009, i.e. the data includes a statistical outlier. Put in a normal recession and we are not pricey!

    Of course, the talking heads on CNBC attacked Seigel with SFB arguments like you have been bullish for quite a while! LOL!

    My spin is this, don't look backward on the market because you will miss the next move. Based on 2015 consensus earnings estimates and a P/E of 15, we should move well over 2000 on the SP500, if not this month, by sometime this fall. In 1999, the SP500 P/E was 29!

    As Cramer noted last night, the bears(i.e. Hedge Fund Parasites & sleazeballs), own a lot of microphones.

  • Reply to

    MCV or Flee?-II

    by v1kes_won Aug 2, 2014 1:02 PM
    v1kes_won v1kes_won Aug 18, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    When do you think the SP breaks through 2000 and what is your target for 2015?"

    I have been using a P/E of 15 times SP500 projected earnings currently at $134. So that get's us to 2010. Two points why that number is probably conservative.

    1. In 2012 and 2013, SP500 earnings trended down as the year progresses. Estimates for 2015 have started to trend up.
    2. Typically, when a major index pushes through an important level like 2000 for the SP500, the index will run another 2% to 4%, so I think 2025-2055 is possible this year.

    PS-Ignore the village idiot, he is mentally ill.

  • A federal judge in San Jose rejected a proposed $324.5 million settlement in a high profile lawsuit that accused Apple, Google, Intel, and Adobe of colluding to not recruit each other's employees. The settlement would have paid an average of $3,750 to each of about 64,000 affected workers. Another collusion suit involving Pixar, Inrtuit, and others had been previously settled.

    The original suit asked for $3 billion in damages.

    Jobs, after hearing that Google was trying to lure Apple workers, allegedly threatened Google co-founder Sergey Brin who testified that Jobs told him" "If you hire a single one of these people, that means war". Citing threats Jobs made against Adobe, the judge noted that the "other defendant CEOs" maintained the anti-solicitation agreements out of fear of and deference to Jobs.

    So another insight into how our fearless leaders and captains of capitalism actually operate.

    So what's next?

    How about one for using lawyers to legally harass employees who leave under the guise of protecting the firms' proprietary info or one for stalking ex-employees who were exercising their first amendment rights over a sleazy incident a firm was trying to cover up?

  • Reply to

    Message Board

    by vsormanti Aug 7, 2014 12:19 AM
    v1kes_won v1kes_won Aug 7, 2014 7:47 AM Flag


    Over the years, you, quickdraw and a few others are the only ones to really appreciate a discussion of Seagate and investment on this board. The lunatic fringe has taken over and I have moved on taking positions in other investments like biotech. GATRZ also rarely posts.

    PS-After selling STX in the fall of 2012, I put most of that money into biotech funds like BIPIX, which is up 142% vs 81% gain for STX to date during this period.

    STX has been treading water this year up 0.7% this year vs 21% gain for WDC. BIPIX up 14% in 2014

  • Reply to

    MCV or Flee?-II

    by v1kes_won Aug 2, 2014 1:02 PM
    v1kes_won v1kes_won Aug 3, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    "It has been well documented that many of the so-called "professionals" have been sitting on the sidelines with too much cash, resulting in under performance to the general market'

    While investment management and professional male sports are the only two professions where being average guarantees a long, lucrative career, one thing that is not tolerated is under performance. At the end of June, most mutual funds had under performed the general market. Last year, the average hedge was up 8% compared to a 30% return of the general market and have since suffered massive redemptions while continuing to charge their clients excessive fees for their "expertise".

    As you noted, there is a lot of money sitting on the side lines with few places to go. So if the train starts to leave for BULL Town again, watch them all scramble to get back in.

  • v1kes_won by v1kes_won Aug 2, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    The market is diving despite the best economic news in years and projections calling for record earnings in 2015, up 13% over the expected record earnings of this year.

    So what's really going on?

    Well the nervous nellie "investment" managers didn't want to stick their toes in the market before earnings with the DOW over 17,000 and the SP500 knocking on 2000.

    So they pulled back.

    The chart monkies sensing this decided to bet red in the casino and the heggie parasites, who under performed terribly last year and are seeing massive redemptions this year, levered up on their index and ETF shorts. This dragged the market down below the 50 DMA on Thursday causing the momentum clowns to join the short party.

    So once again, all hail the chart monkies' maximum contrived volatility (MCV).

    Monday could be veeerrrrrrrrrrrry interesting, indeed.

    With earnings season winding down, that excuse for our cajoless thundering herd is off the table. So will they open up their pocket books or wait for even a greater set of bargains? If we don't get a decent bounce up early next week, look for lower lows and a test of 1900 on the SP500.

    Either way the long term path of least resistance is still up and the economy is gaining momentum. So IMHO whenever you decide to play your chips in the casino, they should be on black.

  • Well everyone from the talking air heads on CNBC to Janet Yellen's comments about overpriced tech stocks are sounding the warning alarm on the market. To the astute investor this might seen strange because:

    1. Further record earnings are expected. The current consensus earnings forecast for the SP500 calls for corporate earnings to rise 13% in 2015 from record levels this year
    2. The second quarter GDP rose 4%
    3. The U.S. has posted the strongest six months of labor gains since 2006
    4. Consumer confidence rose in July to its highest level since October 2007, well above economists' expectations
    5. Chinese stocks are soaring
    6. Second quarter earnings are coming in better than expected

    So what's up with that?

    Well the bears are growling over:
    1. FED may raise rates sooner than expected
    2. Valuations of small cap stocks are excessive
    3. Comrade Putin's actions in the Ukraine

    As far as interest rates go consider this:
    1. Despite the FED cutting back on its asset purchase program and expectations it will raise rates in 2015, the yield on the 10 year Treasury benchmark at the beginning of this year has dropped from 3.0% to 2.5%, which is historically low.
    2. Historically, stocks tend to peak more than two years after the first rate hike.
    3.The real (after inflation) federal funds rate looks to stay negative for a long time, continuing to provide incentive for investors to reach for yield and return

    The Russell index is over valued and small cap stocks have been under performing this year The SP500 is trading at a P/E of 16.2 based on FY14 projections and 14.4 based on the consensus 2015 estimate. Remember, when the bubble burst in 2000, the SP500 was trading at a 29 multiple.

    Aside from some companies doing significant business in Russia, like BP, Crazy Ivan's ego trip in the Ukraine is no BFD for stocks.

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