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Monro Muffler Brake Inc. Message Board

valubyer 23 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 28, 2016 2:50 AM Member since: Apr 14, 2003
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  • valubyer valubyer Jan 28, 2016 2:50 AM Flag

    I have some TANO too. It is absurd that you can buy these 8% notes below par value.

  • Reply to

    Massive PSEC Insider Buys

    by idahospudstud81 Dec 28, 2015 3:31 PM
    valubyer valubyer Jan 22, 2016 6:15 AM Flag

    I searched for recent info on insider buys at PSEC and could not find what you have "reported" here. Please give your source. I am skeptical particularly as these buys if true would be massive for any stock.

  • Reply to

    WHO'S SELLING

    by muckahoy88 Jan 19, 2016 4:42 PM
    valubyer valubyer Jan 21, 2016 7:13 AM Flag

    Even safer are the notes. RFT closed at $14.77, pays a 7.625% coupon on a $25 par value. These notes mature 2024. The 7.125% notes (RFTA) are $18.97, and are more expensive because it is only 3.5 years till they come due at $25.

  • Reply to

    Down 8% today so far

    by topdown727 Dec 7, 2015 2:04 PM
    valubyer valubyer Jan 21, 2016 6:50 AM Flag

    I think Zacks said 9% not 8% for TCAP. Thanks for checking with management.

  • Reply to

    Massive PSEC Insider Buys

    by idahospudstud81 Dec 28, 2015 3:31 PM
    valubyer valubyer Jan 21, 2016 6:38 AM Flag

    That is impressive. I got out of PSEC a while back mostly because of the dastardly deeds of CEO Barry. Where do you think he got that $42 million? The number of shares outstanding has exploded as PSEC sold shares even below book value to feed Barry's need for growth in management fees.

    But I have been thinking about getting back in. The share price is now crazy low, and PSEC's management are some brilliant people. Just don't forget that they are amongst the most self-serving. But everyone once in a while, shareholder interests and Barry's interest may become aligned.

  • Yes TA serves the trucking industry, but the general public also uses their 250+ truck stops. And TA has purchased almost 200 c stores over the past 2 years that are just beginning to contribute to profits. The crash in TA 's share price is just crazy. Even if truck traffic is off a bit, I project an earnings blowout.

  • Reply to

    Current Valuation

    by valubyer Dec 7, 2015 11:13 PM
    valubyer valubyer Dec 27, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    smallercap - When a company is in hyper growth mode it uses its cash flow to fund growth. Adding almost 200 c-stores as well as growing the truck stop business represents a level of growth you wont find many places. (And now TA also owns a casual dining brand bought for a song). I was not thrilled with the latest sale leaseback as a source of growth capital, and you are correct that the relationship with HPT does complicate things. But the prospects of TA st0ck is not diminished by any of this. TA will double over the next 12 months, IMHO.

  • Reply to

    radio silence

    by stocktradernoob Dec 22, 2015 10:10 AM
    valubyer valubyer Dec 22, 2015 11:26 PM Flag

    I second that emotion.

  • Reply to

    Current Valuation

    by valubyer Dec 7, 2015 11:13 PM
    valubyer valubyer Dec 19, 2015 4:03 PM Flag

    You are correct - I did not value assets per store when I was getting my MBA. But when I use my CBA (Certified Business Appraiser) or my license as a Certified General Real Estate Appraiser, I am looking at a single C-store or a small portfolio of C-stores often. So, based on the low amount of debt plus the cheap market cap, TA is cheap on a per store basis. Its called the fundamentals sfvip. And by the way, I believe TA owns the real estate fee simple for almost all of the near 200 C-stores, while they also own a leasehold interest in the truck stops, which is considered real estate ownership of a different kind.

  • Reply to

    When the world is panicking its time to buy

    by davisfoulger Dec 8, 2015 12:04 PM
    valubyer valubyer Dec 16, 2015 7:00 AM Flag

    DF - I am disappointed that management allowed the stock price to slip they way they did, and yes you are right, as the yield got crazy, the divy cut became the thing to do. RAS has been a big loser for me. Long run I think it comes back. I guess one conclusion is that the market always has new lessons to teach. And I appreciate you continuing to speak when the mob has been wanting to hang you.

  • Reply to

    Current Valuation

    by valubyer Dec 7, 2015 11:13 PM
    valubyer valubyer Dec 8, 2015 7:03 AM Flag

    Agreed regarding the real estate. But that still is a very small business value per location.

  • valubyer by valubyer Dec 7, 2015 11:13 PM Flag

    At $360 Million market cap that is roughly equivalent to $1 Million per travel center (with slightly over 250 centers) plus $500,000 per C store (with about 191 stores). Wow that is cheap.

  • Reply to

    GREAT NEWS

    by muckahoy88 Dec 3, 2015 1:51 PM
    valubyer valubyer Dec 4, 2015 1:34 AM Flag

    DF has stated he trades. You do read don't you?

  • Reply to

    TA WILL HIT NEW 52 WEEK LOWS IN MID DECEMBER !!!!

    by bwisheldon Nov 25, 2015 11:35 AM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 27, 2015 11:32 PM Flag

    I guess I can't blame you for wishing for an even better buying opportunity, but TA's stock price will be dictated by its free cash flow. So the long term direction is not in doubt imho.

  • Reply to

    Requiem for David Foulger

    by ki1gore_trout Nov 18, 2015 8:00 AM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 18, 2015 8:04 AM Flag

    David's greatest sin is that he let fundamentals guide him. He did not account for the sometimes crazy view of things by the market. In the long run though, fundamentals will prevail.

    VB

  • Reply to

    I believe ...

    by ray858945 Nov 17, 2015 2:48 PM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 18, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    A few pennies of the CAD (I forget exactly) was from capital gains on the sale of a property or two. That kind of CAD is not sustainable, and I think that has something to do with the decline. But overall, CAD from recurring cash flow is strong enough to support $0.18/ quarter, so the recent selling is not very logical to me. I bought a couple days ago and will probably buy more.

  • Reply to

    Cash offer for Xchanging

    by stocktradernoob Nov 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 18, 2015 7:10 AM Flag

    I would be surprised if senior debt is available at 5X EBITDA. 4X is much more likely as a limit. To get to 5X or a bit higher probably is possible with some mezzanine debt or unsecured notes mixed in.

  • Reply to

    Interesting

    by sfvip2319 Nov 16, 2015 5:06 PM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 16, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    sfvip - I added today too. When I saw the news later, I was tickled. I am familiar with the Quaker Steak & Lube brand, and I have always thought it was a pretty cool casual restaurant. When they rebrand some of their diners I think it will pay immediate dividends. And for TA to go out and buy a restaurant concept is a wow moment.
    I said it before. TA is crazy cheap. Just hold on for a couple more quarters, and cash flow will build.

    Good luck longs.

  • valubyer valubyer Nov 12, 2015 7:20 AM Flag

    happytrader- In the conference call they noted that the mostly pump diesel, and that diesel margins were unusually tight this past quarter. I dont know if that should be a concern, but gas margins are only a small part of the answer. They also said that diversifying into regular c stores was a way of diversifying the risk on fuel margins to both gas and diesel.

  • As I write this, I just noticed EBIX had a PR on their CT office winning an award. That is nice. Anyway, RR stated that one of the best ways to return value to us shareholders is to repurchase shares. He wasn't kidding as the 3rd qtr growth in EPS was largely due to the reduced share count. Now if your strategy for returning value to shareholders is as RR stated, you would not want to be pumping the stock. There is also the possibility that he wants to try again to go private, another incentive to keep the price moderate.

    But RR is honest in his assessments and each earnings call he is on the bullish side. We have yet to get that transformational quarter where earnings explode, which all of us have been hoping for, but instead we are seeing steady growth and expansion of EBIX's product line. This also supports the premise that EBIX wants long term shareholders who appreciate this steady growth even if we value investors are looking for a huge quick gain (after which many of us would move on). But BTW, those of us in since single digits (when the Goldman deal collapsed) are sitting on some handsome gains without any pumping.

    So more pumping of the stock would def. help the price short term, but long term it does not matter that much, and in fact with EBIX continuing to purchase shares on the open market, the best long term answer for shareholders is for RR to do exactly as he is doing.

    VB

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