We might have to wait a couple more weeks.....
Icha - It isnt reasonable to even think about $0.90 IMHO. There was a lot of one-time profit in the 4th qtr. I would be very happy with $0.50, or near $20 million. That would indicate core earnings around $80 mil, or $2.00/ share, which get the stock price into the low $20s pretty quickly.
t_vil - Your post predicted nicely the 6% climb. Hope it had nothing to do with fool's day. I made some nice purchases in the low 15s this week adding to shares I bought a while back at still lower prices. IQNT is a nice cheap value stock.
I do not believe in traditional diversification. Three stocks represent 60% of my holdings, being EBIX and TA tied at the top, and RAS the smaller of the 3. RAS is somewhat smaller because of the significant unrealized gains in TA and EBIX. I own about 25 other stocks. DF - my guess is that you are not traditionally diversified either. Buffet has spoken against diversification as well, though today BH is so large it cant help but be pretty diversified.
stoner - Of course - I missed the u in davisfoulger. Thanks!
davisfolger - I have enjoyed and benefited from your posts for I don't know how long - maybe 4 years. You are definitely a smart guy - I believe even a professor if I am not mistaken, but...
If you buy a share for $8.79 and collect $0.71 in dividends, and the current share price is $6.71, you can add the $0.71 to the $6.71 or you can subtract it from $8.79, but you can't do both. The difference between $8.79 and $6.71 is $2.08, and if you collect $0.71 in dividends you are still in the red by $1.37. I am an appraiser by trade, and always look to learn, but I cannot imagine that your post above makes any sense at all. Double counting is a bad error (I don't call it double-dipping), but you have pulled off the very rare triple count, which is almost as tough to execute as a triple somersault.
Or was this an April Fool's day post, and you wrote it a bit early just to throw us off, right?
TA gave a bit back on a very tough Wednesday, but came back up 2.86% on a day when the NAS def continued to go down (by about 0.25%). Solid volume today too. TA is looking very nice both technically and fundamentally.
My big 3 holdings are EBIX, TA, and RAS. TA is the right way to play oil. Owns 250+ truck stops and soon about 80 c-stores. Stock has been on a tear, like EBIX, but it is cheap vs cash flow. RAS is a strong performing REIT and commercial lender with a div yield over 10%. Stock should appreciate 20%, and earn that divy while you wait.
And those who invest in undervalued strong performing companies can make boatloads of money. The bit about pigs does not apply here.
I too make similar political contributions. Both to Dems and GOP candidates. I'll bet spineless has never had the spine to make a political contribution.
Sleepy - I did not say the improvement in fuel margin will disappear, but it will prob. never equal Q4's margin again in our lifetimes, as the crash in prices had alot to do with the margin. Prices are done crashing. And the 45-c-stores I reference are the new ones. By my count the total c-stores will be up to about 80. I agree the stock is headed into the $30s. How fast is the question.
I am long TA with about 20% of my invested assets, with my cost on most of my shares in single digits. I agree that it is seriously undervalued. The one-time event of fuel prices crashing during the 4th quarter makes estimation of future cash flow more difficult. Also, there was a $7 million biodiesel tax credit in the 4th quarter which at minimum represented four quarters worth of credits.
Still, the 4th quarter was huge. Gross fuel profits increased from $84 million to $138 million (up $64 million), while non-fuel gross profits were up from $193 million to $219 million (a $26 million improvement). EBITDA was $75 Mil for the quarter and $181 Mil for the year.
Typically we net cash from debt in calculating EV. If you do this for TA, there is no debt other than capitalized leases. Speaking of which, EBITDA can be considered overstated, since true rent expense is understated by about $6 million due to some of the rent being classified as interest. In fact, pure rent is understated by about $17 mil for the year, based on the rent schedule in the recent press release.So, if $25 mil of the improvement in fuel margin disappears, and if rent is "normalized" pushing EBITDA down by $17 mil, then trailing core EBITDA is more like $140 mil, but this is before all of the new cash flow that will be contributed by the handful of new truck stops and 45 c-stores that are about to contribute to EBITDA. So, if TA is worth 7.5X EBITDA, that is an EV of $1,050 mil. Since the cash is rapidly being deployed in investments, I don't like subtracting it from debt. So, subtracting the $230 mil in notes, the market cap becomes $820 mil, which is $21.60/ share.
I believe the current value is $21.60/ share, and if the newly acquired assets ramp up well, the value and share price will be in the $30s in the not distant future.
Its simple. How much new, never before had EBITDA will come from the just acquired 26 c-stores? How much new EBITDA will come from the 3 newest TA stores? How much new EBITDA will come from the stores being renovated?
Will some of the fourth quarter fuel margin evaporate? Yes. But the new cash flow engines will quickly replace it. I am extremely excited by TA's near term prospects.
I barely look at technicals since fundamentals truly decide the future price of any stock. TA might sit in the $15s for a little while, but if you get out, you miss the soon to be had ride to $23 and above which could happen any time over the next month or two. EBITDA is growing and will continue to grow as more stores are added or renovated. TA is incredibly cheap versus any metric, but particularly vs book value or EBITDA.
sfvip you can thank me later.
- Trading slightly below book value ($518.6 Mil vs $506 Mil)
- With EBITDA for the year at $181 Mil, and with debt including capitalized leases of about $595 Mil, the enterprise value ($1,101 Mil) to EBITDA ratio is 6.08. (Wow that's cheap).
- Notice I did not subtract the cash on hand, as much of it is being deployed soon in improvements and recent purchases, all of which should grow EBITDA. So if you subtract most of the cash and call EV a net of $900 Mil, the EV to EBITDA ratio becomes 4.97.
If the multiple is raised to a more real 7.0 (still cheap), the market cap has to go to $873 Mil, which is $23/ share.
Therefore, I conclude TA is cheap!
The cost of gas plummeted so of course revenues were off. I t was a huge beat. Management also acknowledged that gas margins wont so huge next quarter since the plummet in prices creates a huge opportunity just by being a bit slow to reduce the price at the pump. But the future looks great for TA. TA is still very cheap, trading below book value. We should see a nice move today.
TA had a war chest of $127 Million as of 9/30/14, which was BEFORE issuing about $120 Mil of new notes. So that is around a quarter billion TA has to spend on stores. I am not worried as some others on this board that they will dilute the stock. I have been in TA less than a year, and did not experience any dilution. I cant imagine they would issue more than a very small amount in shares as currency for purchases.
TA is poised for a great report Friday. Good luck to all.
I was in for a little while before the 3 for 1 split which was Jan 2010. Have 8,000 shares and have benefitted greatly from owning EBIX, as have family members. I might even go too!