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AMCOL International Corporation Message Board

valubyer 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 27, 2015 11:32 PM Member since: Apr 14, 2003
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  • Reply to


    by bwisheldon Nov 25, 2015 11:35 AM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 27, 2015 11:32 PM Flag

    I guess I can't blame you for wishing for an even better buying opportunity, but TA's stock price will be dictated by its free cash flow. So the long term direction is not in doubt imho.

  • Reply to

    Requiem for David Foulger

    by ki1gore_trout Nov 18, 2015 8:00 AM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 18, 2015 8:04 AM Flag

    David's greatest sin is that he let fundamentals guide him. He did not account for the sometimes crazy view of things by the market. In the long run though, fundamentals will prevail.


  • Reply to

    I believe ...

    by ray858945 Nov 17, 2015 2:48 PM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 18, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    A few pennies of the CAD (I forget exactly) was from capital gains on the sale of a property or two. That kind of CAD is not sustainable, and I think that has something to do with the decline. But overall, CAD from recurring cash flow is strong enough to support $0.18/ quarter, so the recent selling is not very logical to me. I bought a couple days ago and will probably buy more.

  • Reply to

    Cash offer for Xchanging

    by stocktradernoob Nov 17, 2015 2:58 PM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 18, 2015 7:10 AM Flag

    I would be surprised if senior debt is available at 5X EBITDA. 4X is much more likely as a limit. To get to 5X or a bit higher probably is possible with some mezzanine debt or unsecured notes mixed in.

  • Reply to


    by sfvip2319 Nov 16, 2015 5:06 PM
    valubyer valubyer Nov 16, 2015 7:17 PM Flag

    sfvip - I added today too. When I saw the news later, I was tickled. I am familiar with the Quaker Steak & Lube brand, and I have always thought it was a pretty cool casual restaurant. When they rebrand some of their diners I think it will pay immediate dividends. And for TA to go out and buy a restaurant concept is a wow moment.
    I said it before. TA is crazy cheap. Just hold on for a couple more quarters, and cash flow will build.

    Good luck longs.

  • valubyer valubyer Nov 12, 2015 7:20 AM Flag

    happytrader- In the conference call they noted that the mostly pump diesel, and that diesel margins were unusually tight this past quarter. I dont know if that should be a concern, but gas margins are only a small part of the answer. They also said that diversifying into regular c stores was a way of diversifying the risk on fuel margins to both gas and diesel.

  • As I write this, I just noticed EBIX had a PR on their CT office winning an award. That is nice. Anyway, RR stated that one of the best ways to return value to us shareholders is to repurchase shares. He wasn't kidding as the 3rd qtr growth in EPS was largely due to the reduced share count. Now if your strategy for returning value to shareholders is as RR stated, you would not want to be pumping the stock. There is also the possibility that he wants to try again to go private, another incentive to keep the price moderate.

    But RR is honest in his assessments and each earnings call he is on the bullish side. We have yet to get that transformational quarter where earnings explode, which all of us have been hoping for, but instead we are seeing steady growth and expansion of EBIX's product line. This also supports the premise that EBIX wants long term shareholders who appreciate this steady growth even if we value investors are looking for a huge quick gain (after which many of us would move on). But BTW, those of us in since single digits (when the Goldman deal collapsed) are sitting on some handsome gains without any pumping.

    So more pumping of the stock would def. help the price short term, but long term it does not matter that much, and in fact with EBIX continuing to purchase shares on the open market, the best long term answer for shareholders is for RR to do exactly as he is doing.


  • valubyer valubyer Nov 11, 2015 7:11 AM Flag

    Fuel prices were pretty flat last quarter. and most forecasts are that they will be flat for a couple years if I am not mistaken. So this past quarter did not include any windfall profits, though 3rd qtr of 2014 did.

  • valubyer valubyer Nov 11, 2015 7:07 AM Flag

    What is RMR?

  • What a crazy cheap multiplier. Market cap is $410 Million at $10.68/ share. Net debt including HPT capitalized leases is $656 Million, but net debt is $427 Million after subtracting cash on hand of $229 Million. EV is therefore $410 MM + $427 MM = $837 MM.

    EBITDA this quarter was a bit disappointing at $38.5 MM. They should be able to replicate that number regardless of seasonality, as new stores are being added. So annualized Adjusted EBITDA is $154 MM, which makes the EV/ EBITDA multiplier $837 MM/ $154 MM = 5.44X.

    A more reasonable multiplier (though still pretty cheap) would be a 7.0X multiplier, which would indicate EV of $1,078 MM. Subtract net debt of $427 MM, and market cap should be $651 MM, which is $16.95/ share.

    Call me crazy, but that is how I value TA. It is crazy cheap, but we are just going to have to wait a bit for the market to recognize this value.


  • valubyer valubyer Nov 6, 2015 8:01 AM Flag

    I meant 15X is $35.40

  • It would seem a PE of 15X is still crazy low, and gets the price to $25.40. A 20 PE is not at all crazy and is worth $47.20.

  • Reply to

    Head and shoulders bottom on the hourly

    by williamzim2000 Oct 15, 2015 10:14 AM
    valubyer valubyer Oct 16, 2015 7:10 PM Flag

    There is truth in what both you and stuart are saying. Yes, I suspect RR will want to take another run at going private, and he would probably not want to see the price get beyond where he could do a deal. Yes I rather earn the max possible profit today, not in a year or 2 or more. Fortunately there are legal protections for us as Stuart just showed. I am confident we will all be pretty happy shareholders with each successive quarterly report propelling the stock price.

  • Reply to

    Head and shoulders bottom on the hourly

    by williamzim2000 Oct 15, 2015 10:14 AM
    valubyer valubyer Oct 16, 2015 12:09 AM Flag

    What kind of person puts most of his money in a stock of a company where the investor believes management is guilty of mismanagement? If that is what you believe you should have sold a long time ago. Not very smart.

    But I have a different view. Robin Raina has shown brilliant management skill in growing EBIX in several areas with all parts of the business operating at very high profit margins. Not a sign of mismanagement. I would agree that management does not promote the stock, and so it is cheap. It is nice owning cheap stocks, though I do look forward to the inevitable appreciation from the current price. A big gain may well be just a few days away, at the next earnings report.

    EBIX is one of my big three stocks (the others being RAS and TA). I have owned EBIX for 6 or 7 years, though I got out after the announced sale to GS, getting back in at single digits when GS walked away.


  • Reply to

    Prediction: TA will deliver a monster 3rd quarter

    by valubyer Oct 4, 2015 11:51 AM
    valubyer valubyer Oct 4, 2015 9:37 PM Flag

    Yes, I should have said that in a very good quarter when prices are dropping margins of $0.20 or better can be achieved, while steady prices indicate margins near $0.15 and during tough periods (or when prices are climbing), margins can be at $0.10 or below. But low fuel prices do stimulate more spending in the C-stores, since people have more money in their pockets.

  • sfvip and others are nervous nellies. While I am not going to predict revenues, gross profit, EBITDA, or EPS, everything points to a great quarter. I also did not like the sale leaseback, but borrowing another $115 million in long term debt is fine by me. They should keep buying more C-stores while developing a few more TA centers. Fuel price is cheap now, so margins will be great, and recent acquisitions will show growing cash flows, while brand new acquisitions are yet to make their contribution to earnings.

    I too am very unhappy with the recent stock performance, but it can turn around after earnings.

  • I have to believe TSR brings quite a bit in management fees. A stable dividend IS a great thing, and it should go up as rents and management fees continue to grow.

  • Reply to

    conference today

    by lrking1 Sep 10, 2015 3:01 PM
    valubyer valubyer Sep 11, 2015 6:22 AM Flag

    When the T Mobile deal was announced they did say it would have a major impact on revenues but they left EBITDA guidance unchanged. Plus, the deal does require CAPEX. But it was certainly implied that on a longer view basis the new relationship with T Mobile will grow sales and profits significantly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy