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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

value_invstr 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 8, 2014 8:35 AM Member since: Jul 27, 2009
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  • Reply to

    To be slaughtered

    by lburgguy999 Nov 6, 2014 12:56 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Nov 8, 2014 8:35 AM Flag

    Have you factored in the value of the spectrum they hold? Do you know their is an auction next week that will be an excellent comp for that value?

  • Reply to

    Off-Topic: LIN MEG merger

    by infotraxx Oct 22, 2014 10:09 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 23, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    I don't think your factoring in the cash payment to the Lin Shareholders, that's a big chunk of market cap going away. I think ~$600m or so. Don't remember.

  • Reply to

    Off-Topic: LIN MEG merger

    by infotraxx Oct 22, 2014 10:09 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 22, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    Shareholders get to choose between cash and stock. The cash portion is $25.97 and with Lin stock at $22.76 you can bet that everyone will choose cash. Which means roughly 50% will be taken out in cash the remaining go in about 1.4 shares of Media General stock. It's done on a pro rata basis, all shareholders treated the same, but they will only payout a certain amount in cash, that % is roughly 50% if everyone chooses that option. I think pro forma MEG will have about 138m shares of stock outstanding. It's trading at roughly a 20% FCF yield. Management has made no secrete that they will be quick to buy more TV stations as soon as this transaction closes. Nexstar and Gray are the most likely candidates. Not sure why MEG trades cheapest in the sector, especially since they have the best tax shield.

  • Reply to

    Great News

    by daninfw04 Oct 16, 2014 10:38 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 17, 2014 8:25 AM Flag

    This crushes the bear case that networks will go it alone and convert to cable, strengthens the relationship between the networks and the affiliates.

  • Reply to

    Plea for Help

    by daninfw04 Oct 8, 2014 4:33 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 9, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    He converted his options to common. From the last filing he hasn't sold. Yeah, that deal should close soon, I'm looking forward to cashing a lot out and looking to re-allocate with a lot of names beaten up.

  • Reply to

    Plea for Help

    by daninfw04 Oct 8, 2014 4:33 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 9, 2014 9:39 AM Flag

    From the very beginning all shareholders were going to be treated the same, what happened was is one of these "ambulance chaser" law firms claimed otherwise and filed a lawsuit. The company told them that they should re-read the merger agreement, and when the law firm did they withdrew their complaint. I think it was 24 hours, but the headline was made and has continued to cause confusion.

  • Reply to

    Plea for Help

    by daninfw04 Oct 8, 2014 4:33 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 8, 2014 11:42 PM Flag

    Buffet's bank debt got taken out, he's no longer a holder of the debt, but has retained his equity holdings. Lin shareholders will get $25.97 (going off memory), but if everyone chooses the cash option then that will only be about 50% of the holders, and the rest will be rolled into new stock. Nobody is getting special treatment, all shareholders are being treated the same. I plan to roll my LIN proceeds into EVC as I don't own it yet and it's the best spectrum play out there.

  • Reply to

    Spectrum Auction

    by value_invstr Oct 2, 2014 1:02 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 2, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    The report was done by Greenhill I believe, I haven't seen the exact book, but I've seen analysis by people who have. It's a lot different then I think people thought, Dells OTA seems to have hit a home run, they seemed to have had the inside track. The surprising part is that a lot of smaller markets are getting big $$ and some big markets are offered very little. I did just some quick math, in EVC's markets well north of a Billion dollars. The small markets in California are offered big #s, same with the Northeast and Ohio/Michigan, also parts of Florida. Places like Texas not so much. Pennsylvania and Maryland were also big.

  • Reply to

    Spectrum Auction

    by value_invstr Oct 2, 2014 1:02 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 2, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    They just found out otherwise.

  • Reply to

    Spectrum Auction

    by value_invstr Oct 2, 2014 1:02 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 2, 2014 2:08 PM Flag

    It's going to get REAL interesting, big $$$ in play here.

  • Reply to

    Spectrum Auction

    by value_invstr Oct 2, 2014 1:02 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 2, 2014 1:57 PM Flag

    The $120m i believe is the maximum the FCC will pay, so they probably get something less but probably not much less because their aren't many stations that are fully powered at UHF, think they have the only one. The numbers are staggering, it's not just the big markets either. And by the way, their are some very smart people who have taken advantage of this, Michael Dell for example. He bought a bunch of stations on the cheap for this reason, so it's not like we are on an island with our thought process. I know a lot of broadcasters said they won't participate, but I think they might have to reconsider given the size of these numbers. FCC says they could cut a check to the broadcasters for $38B!

  • value_invstr by value_invstr Oct 2, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    If you guys haven't seen what the FCC is willing to pay broadcasters I'd recommend you check it out. It's nothing short of staggering/game changing. I'll give you an example. The FCC is willing to pay up to $120m for the spectrum of a fully powered digital station in Santa Barabara, There are only 4 of these in the market, EVC has one. That station does about $2m in revenue and the FCC is willing to buy it for up to $120m. And by the way, (I could be wrong about this), but they appear to be in the sweet spot with channel 38, believe that is UHF, the spectrum the FCC covets. Appreciate others comments on this.

EMMS
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