% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

LIN TV Corp. Message Board

value_invstr 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 2, 2015 12:54 PM Member since: Jul 27, 2009
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Ryvicker Does It Again

    by daninfw04 Oct 2, 2015 8:49 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Oct 2, 2015 12:54 PM Flag

    The headline value what they offer is not relevant. What is relevant is the cash component and the % of the combine company that MEG shareholders will own. The current offer could be better than the $17 offer. The reason being is that both (pretty much all) stocks are lower. I don't think NXST has much room on the cash portion of the offer, this is because they don't want to lever up the balance sheet too high. I think they could offer MEG shareholders roughly 40% of the new company (as opposed to 26% in their original offer) and still have it be substantially accretive to NXST shareholders. The NXST/MEG combo has more synergies and attractive characteristics than the MEG/MDP deal. At 40%, I believe the new NXST would generate about $9 per share in FCF. Throw whatever multiple you want on that number to get your target, but that's better than NXST current $7.65 guidance. So as a MEG shareholder, I look at as I cash out, and I get a decent amount of shares in the new company that I believe will double from current levels. FYI, the 40% number would be roughly $18 with the current stock prices.

    As a MEG shareholder I have to admit, this is fun. Maybe MDP comes back and decides to buy MEG or a 3rd party joins the fight. Starboard and other shareholders won't allow MEG to play games, I think everyone wants a good deal to get done, but if MEG doesn't something shady they will lay down the hammer by kicking out the board. Fun stuff.

  • value_invstr value_invstr Sep 28, 2015 6:37 PM Flag

    Listen to the nexstar call

  • value_invstr value_invstr Sep 28, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    But now shareholders get to vote and decide. They will also kick the board out if they have too. The new share structure changes everything. This will be fun to watch.

  • value_invstr value_invstr Sep 28, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    But it's not up to him anymore. He use to have a special share of stock, that is no longer the case. It's a whole new ball game.

  • value_invstr value_invstr Sep 28, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    mediatrader is absolutely correct, however Kim doesn't have a blocking position, majority of shareholders will want the NXST deal. BOD have a fiduciary duty, negotiating a deal with NXST is better than the deal they have done with MDP. NXST is smart to take advantage of this ugly market.

  • Reply to

    how will they pay for this..

    by eddiebuttles Sep 15, 2015 8:06 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Sep 15, 2015 9:03 AM Flag

    Secured debt, my guess is they will need about $350m-$400m depending on the timing of the close, they have plenty of secured capacity, probably pay ~5% for debt.

  • value_invstr by value_invstr Sep 14, 2015 7:26 PM Flag

    Reminds me of the Hoak deal, this takes GTN to another level. Will add over $0.60 free cash flow per share next year. Also selling spectrum in Georgia.

  • value_invstr by value_invstr Sep 9, 2015 6:25 PM Flag

    I believe the new company is worth at least $30. Keep in mind that both MEG and MDP have almost all of their retrains contracts coming up over the next 2 years. As a TV investor, I don't like the magazine assets, although they do have a lot of digital properties/expertise. I would expect the company to spin off the magazine assets and merge with Time, just makes too much sense. The balance sheet is fine, leverage will come down quickly with higher Ebitda and debt pay down. This business supports 5x leverage, no problem, remember MEG was over 8x at one point. I'm very happy to hear they are committed to paying a dividend and doing a buyback. They also have some stations to sell/swap, some of the are in great spectrum markets like Hartford and Springfield, I believe they have the top stations in those markets regarding "interference value" and that is exactly what you want. Any transaction that increases free cash flow per share is good in my book, and this deal does that. The market says I'm in the minority on liking this deal, but that's fine with me, as always, time will tell.

  • value_invstr by value_invstr Aug 27, 2015 4:53 PM Flag

    Curious what people think (I posted the same question on the FTR board), FTR needs about $9b to pay for the VZ acquisition, HY market is a little pricy these days, isn't CSAL the perfect finance vehicle for them? I would think CSAL wants to diversify away from the wireline business, maybe they aren't ready for such a big deal (thoughts around how they would finance it).

  • Buy the properties from VZ for 5x, and go ahead and do a sale/lease back with CSAL at ~9x. Anyone think they will go that option or just finance the rest of the deal in the HY market?

  • Reply to

    Just A Few Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 22, 2015 3:02 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Aug 24, 2015 7:49 AM Flag

    I should add, and Dan I'm sure you know this, GTN Management gave us net retrains guidance for the next 3 years. They have all their reverse retrains deals locked up over the long term, they even gave us their assumptions on the retrains side for the subs they have coming up (using today's rates), which as we all are know is a conservative assumption. Net retrans dollars are going higher over the next 3 years, it's locked in.

  • Reply to

    Just A Few Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Aug 22, 2015 3:02 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Aug 24, 2015 7:44 AM Flag

    That is not what the Bernstein Media Analyst said. He essentially said the Cable Networks model is problematic and that multiples paid for affiliate fees should be lower (not retrains). He doesn't cover the affiliates, and the only broadcasters he does cover are the network owned CBS, and FOX, (DIS has a few stations). He considers them the safest names in the sector because of their sports rights and news, which are not disrupted by time shifted viewing. Oddly enough he likes Nielsen, which I think is on the firing lines more than anyone.

  • Reply to

    An Open Post To This Board...

    by opalockamishabob Aug 20, 2015 12:51 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Aug 20, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    Nobody downgraded the affiliates, Wells reiterated their outperform on them. This is a throw the baby out with the bath water moment. It happens, that's what the stock market does from time to time. If you are a long term investor you just take advantage of opportunities like this.

  • Reply to

    Can anyone explain to me why ROIAK...

    by fabulouspoodle Aug 14, 2015 10:37 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Aug 18, 2015 11:14 AM Flag

    No idea, that's up to the market, just looking forward to the fundamentals improving. And I think we will get a name change, "Media One" is probably a real possibility.

  • Reply to

    Can anyone explain to me why ROIAK...

    by fabulouspoodle Aug 14, 2015 10:37 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Aug 17, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    I love the stock, my target is $12. Wouldn't think about selling below $7.

  • Reply to

    Can anyone explain to me why ROIAK...

    by fabulouspoodle Aug 14, 2015 10:37 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Aug 17, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    Yes I agree, it is confusing to investors and I've heard people say, "but they reported another loss" without understanding the economics, they just see the headlines. I'd focus on Ebitda, and from there use cash taxes, cash interest, capex to get to free cash flow, or you can look at the cash flow statement and look at cash from operations and subtract out capex. I love this story, it's a levered equity and they should delever rapidly, which means the stock should fly. Don't forget they also own a TV station in Indianapolis, so they will be selling that spectrum in the broadcast incentive auction next year as well.

  • Reply to

    Can anyone explain to me why ROIAK...

    by fabulouspoodle Aug 14, 2015 10:37 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Aug 16, 2015 10:11 PM Flag

    For the same reason that they report a loss even though they are generating cash. They have several corporate entities, the reality is they don't pay cash taxes and never will (at least the foreseeable future) because they have huge NOLs. It's an accounting issue, not a cash flow issue. Management see's the company generating about $50m per year in free cash flow and growing rapidly. The TV business is automatic given their long term contracts. The Casino deal is automatic and kicks in 2H next year. Radio has been weak given a combination of a weak market and self inflected wounds. However, the positive factors have outweighed the weakness in radio.

  • The stock market is not rational in the near term, never is. It was another great Q, and the next 15 months are going to be fantastic for them. For long term investors, no worries.

  • Reply to

    Auction Delay

    by daninfw04 Jul 29, 2015 11:03 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Aug 1, 2015 6:18 PM Flag

    The FCC is coming out with the Auction Rules on Thursday. That will be more important than earnings. Unfortunately management won't have adequate time to comment on the rules.

  • Reply to

    Aereo-Part 2?

    by daninfw04 Jul 19, 2015 9:55 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Jul 21, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    Info, I agree with your take. The court punted. The FCC and Congress will ultimately decide how to classify OTT players. It will just be another customer/retrains opportunity. Tegna talked about it on their call today.