Curious what people think (I posted the same question on the FTR board), FTR needs about $9b to pay for the VZ acquisition, HY market is a little pricy these days, isn't CSAL the perfect finance vehicle for them? I would think CSAL wants to diversify away from the wireline business, maybe they aren't ready for such a big deal (thoughts around how they would finance it).
Buy the properties from VZ for 5x, and go ahead and do a sale/lease back with CSAL at ~9x. Anyone think they will go that option or just finance the rest of the deal in the HY market?
I should add, and Dan I'm sure you know this, GTN Management gave us net retrains guidance for the next 3 years. They have all their reverse retrains deals locked up over the long term, they even gave us their assumptions on the retrains side for the subs they have coming up (using today's rates), which as we all are know is a conservative assumption. Net retrans dollars are going higher over the next 3 years, it's locked in.
That is not what the Bernstein Media Analyst said. He essentially said the Cable Networks model is problematic and that multiples paid for affiliate fees should be lower (not retrains). He doesn't cover the affiliates, and the only broadcasters he does cover are the network owned CBS, and FOX, (DIS has a few stations). He considers them the safest names in the sector because of their sports rights and news, which are not disrupted by time shifted viewing. Oddly enough he likes Nielsen, which I think is on the firing lines more than anyone.
Nobody downgraded the affiliates, Wells reiterated their outperform on them. This is a throw the baby out with the bath water moment. It happens, that's what the stock market does from time to time. If you are a long term investor you just take advantage of opportunities like this.
No idea, that's up to the market, just looking forward to the fundamentals improving. And I think we will get a name change, "Media One" is probably a real possibility.
Yes I agree, it is confusing to investors and I've heard people say, "but they reported another loss" without understanding the economics, they just see the headlines. I'd focus on Ebitda, and from there use cash taxes, cash interest, capex to get to free cash flow, or you can look at the cash flow statement and look at cash from operations and subtract out capex. I love this story, it's a levered equity and they should delever rapidly, which means the stock should fly. Don't forget they also own a TV station in Indianapolis, so they will be selling that spectrum in the broadcast incentive auction next year as well.
For the same reason that they report a loss even though they are generating cash. They have several corporate entities, the reality is they don't pay cash taxes and never will (at least the foreseeable future) because they have huge NOLs. It's an accounting issue, not a cash flow issue. Management see's the company generating about $50m per year in free cash flow and growing rapidly. The TV business is automatic given their long term contracts. The Casino deal is automatic and kicks in 2H next year. Radio has been weak given a combination of a weak market and self inflected wounds. However, the positive factors have outweighed the weakness in radio.
The stock market is not rational in the near term, never is. It was another great Q, and the next 15 months are going to be fantastic for them. For long term investors, no worries.
The FCC is coming out with the Auction Rules on Thursday. That will be more important than earnings. Unfortunately management won't have adequate time to comment on the rules.
Info, I agree with your take. The court punted. The FCC and Congress will ultimately decide how to classify OTT players. It will just be another customer/retrains opportunity. Tegna talked about it on their call today.
earnings are an accounting number, the real number you should be looking at is free cash flow (how much money do they make), the dividend represents roughly 20% of it.
There are a lot of long/short hedge funds out there that have to short to justify their fees, they don't have a choice. Gogo is an easy target because based on today's cash flows it looks expensive. The short books at these hedge funds have been run over by this market, and Gogo will to it to them again (especially when they put out guidance next year and Ebitda will be up substantially, because then all of a sudden the stock doesn't look expensive). I've read a lot of the analyst reports on Gogo, and quite frankly I find their analysis pretty sad. Their modeling looks good, and I think they get the business model, but they all make the same mistake. They all place some multiple on next years Ebitda. By doing this, they are saying the ROW segment is worth negative $2B+ in value. This is just stupid, as it's arguable their greatest market opportunity. A better analysis would be to do a sum of the parts valuation. If they did that with BA and CA-NA, and put a value on ROW based on the market opportunity (discounted back) they would all come up with a much larger number. Lastly, their terminal multiples are way off. A business that has a long term annuity stream should get big multiples (See Sirius). At their investor day they compared themselves to Sirius, and I think that is a fair comparison. Once the equipment is on, it doesn't come off, this is a long term/high margin annuity business. Businesses like that get monster multiples.
Yeah, the next step will be the final rules. I think the legal challenges probably are pretty much done with. Other obstacles include the trade agreements with Mexico and Canada, they claim they've made progress but nobody knows that that means, might mean they need more stations along the border. I expect the rules will be more friendly to all parties, less interference (good for wireless guys) and they might get rid of the dynamic pricing model. In the fall broadcasters will have to register to participate (they all will), still some issues to work out, but looking more and more like this happens.