They said the usual, looking to do more M&A, but sellers control timing, going to generate record free cash flow next year, nothing surprising. All these companies go to HY conferences, Lin was there as well. They do it to give credit investors access and to maintain relationships with their bankers. I'm sure Sinclair and Nexstar are there as well. It's funny that all these conferences are at the same time because you get little value after hearing the same thing over and over again.
I read the transcript on the presentation, valueguy101 (no relation) hit the nail on the end. Keep in mind they will probably be presenting at the UBS Conference next week, can't imagine anything new at this point.
average free cash flow per share for 2014 and 2015. i think the wells analyst is to low on her estimaes.
I stand by my earlier comment, I probably will NEVER sell. If they continue to do accretive M&A the sky is the limit (perhaps the Moon). When the are done buying, they get sold and that is my exit. In it to win it. As it stands today I think the stock is worth ~$17. Every acquisition increases that number.
Keep in mind Gtn can do another bond deal whenever they want. Therefore they have unlimited capacity. The debt markets support the multiples they are paying. All free cash is used to pay down debt to improve the balance sheet further. They are only restricted by lack of sellers, or by their own conservative nature or by competitors. They are not constrained by access to capital in any way.
I think the stock is running on Gabelli's comments on CNBC the other day. I still like it, but saw better value in some other names, so took some chips off the table. Anxious to hear what their capital allocation and M&A strategy will be with new ownership and balance sheet.
I actually don't ever see myself selling this stock. I say that because I think they continue to be acquisitive, and/or when they are done they get bought out.
Last Q revenue was down 2.8%, so it appears that the revenue decline is slowing down. They have been able to keep Ebitda flat over the last 5 years, which is nothing short of amazing. I project Ebitda to continue to be flat. I'm expected slower revenue decline but also less operating expense reduction.
As am I. You're right, I have no interest in trading. I do this to help people. There is too much bad information out there. The "so called professionals" are terrible in my opinion, and usually have their own interests in mind. I do these posts to provide insight and help people make better decisions with their assets.
I calculate 5.8x Ebitda today. Paying down $90M of debt per year, so project forward and see what you get.
By 3:30pm, I'm being sarcastic, I have no idea, and don't predict short term movements, but my target is now $20 on the stock, and going higher if they continue to do more.
Unfortunately, it's not up to just them, they can chase as many deals as they want but need dance partners. The good news is a lot of smaller guys are trying to sell. I think they will go head to head against nexstar on a lot of theses, but hopefully gray can win their share.
It's impossible to really know without the details being released but it's my understanding that the are close to 100% margin because you are leveraging your existing cost structure and have no new expenses. Yes this is small, but they just created a duopoly in one of their largest markets.
If they buy Hoak, their stock goes to at least $18. I don't think SBGI will buy them anytime soon because SBGI is at the 39% ownership cap, and they don't want to #$%$ of the new FCC Commissioner even though they could find ways to buy GTN.
The reason nobody was on the call is because it was 9am on a Thursday during earnings season, GTN is a small cap name and analysts have to prioritize which call to be on, 9 am is a prime time spot. But who cares about that, Hilton said exactly what I wanted to hear. He's interested in groups and just not stations. They are not done in the M&A game, they are just beginning. I for one and pleased with earnings, but extraordinary happy with their new strategic direction. I don't care about short term movements.
It's my understanding the agreements stay with the legacy entity, although it depends on how the contract is written. Won't have an impact either way.
The acquisition today is small, but meaningful. Hopefully more behind it.
I don't remember if they announced the financial details of this deal or not, my guess is no, meaning it's very small. The JSA's and JMA agreements are nothing unique/crazy. It's away to own another station in a market so you dont' have duplicative sales forces/news gatherers/etc. You essentially lower the cost structure from 2 stations down to 1, yet the revenue stays the same, so creates a lot of value. It's only really done in small markets, and is often the only way small stations can be profitable.
Best of luck with the surgery, any surgery is a big deal. I'm not worried about earnings, I'm worried about the big industry events. I think gray has some acquisitions teed up, think that's the reason they did the bond deal, but as always we will see.