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Lee Enterprises, Incorporated Message Board

value_invstr 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 13, 2016 9:09 AM Member since: Jul 27, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Is there any intelligent life on this board?

    by wilib914 Feb 12, 2016 4:21 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Feb 13, 2016 9:09 AM Flag

    There is now a seeking alpha article about it. Gray's bonds trade at 6%, they have excellent credit and now have low enough leverage that they can bypass the high yield market and go straight to the bank debt market if they want.

  • Reply to

    Is there any intelligent life on this board?

    by wilib914 Feb 12, 2016 4:21 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Feb 12, 2016 5:11 PM Flag

    You got the good news today. The FCC approved their acquisition of Shurz. We've seen this with this sector before, at times the market just crushes it. But the balance sheet is in the best positioned it's ever been in, and they are going to shatter all records with there performance this year. I feel safe in saying that is an indisputable fact. Listen to the replay of the CBS call, TV Broadcast sector is very hot right now. You wouldn't know it by looking at the stock, but those are the facts on the ground.

  • Reply to

    MEG NXST will go forward

    by mediatrader Jan 26, 2016 12:14 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Jan 29, 2016 2:19 PM Flag

    Agree, plus the free cash flow generation will be impressive, pay attention to NXST earnings call when they give us 16/17 free cash flow per share guidance, my guess is that it will be over $11 per share per year. NXST stock will fly in my opinion.

  • Reply to

    MEG NXST will go forward

    by mediatrader Jan 26, 2016 12:14 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Jan 28, 2016 9:08 AM Flag

    Correct, also you get a CVR for the spectrum they sell.

  • Reply to

    Hi Dan/ Value

    by rockysim Jan 13, 2016 7:59 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Jan 15, 2016 8:02 AM Flag

    The Meredith proposal is not happening, at least not in its current form. The Auction starts March 29th, but won't be over until the fall (September/October/November), we won't know nothing until the FCC announces the results.

  • Reply to

    Hi Dan/ Value

    by rockysim Jan 13, 2016 7:59 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Jan 14, 2016 4:47 PM Flag

    Meg shareholders get $10.55 cash, plus whatever spectrum they sell in the auction, I believe their estimates are $2.50-$4.50. These deal will close within days of the FCC announcing the auction results. So we are going to get ~$12.50 - $15 in cash in October/November, plus .1249 shares of Nexstar. I think NXST is extremely under valued here, they will be doing over $10.50 per share in FCF per year. I think the NXST piece will eventually be worth $12, but the market today is saying it's worth $6. I see total value at the close to be $18.50-$27 (I know it's a wide range, but lots of variables). One thing I can say with certainty. The day that the FCC announces the spectrum results will be insane for this sector!

  • Reply to

    Media reports

    by dancclayton Jan 7, 2016 6:48 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Jan 7, 2016 6:51 PM Flag

    I saw a story that MDP and MEG were negotiating an exit. MDP wanted to buy a couple of TV stations and 2 of the digital business at a discount. MEG countered, but they couldn't come to terms. Sounds like MDP is trying to extract as much value as they can from the break up (don't blame them), but it looks like they know they have no chance of outbidding NXST.

  • Reply to

    Dan/value

    by rockysim Jan 7, 2016 11:51 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Jan 7, 2016 5:14 PM Flag

    I completely agree with Dan on why the stock isn't higher. The market is it's own animal, and right now it's ugly. I think it will be very similar to the Lin deal.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Jan 7, 2016 9:53 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Jan 7, 2016 10:56 AM Flag

    The NXST deal has much more cash component, $10.55 vs. $3.90, better management and no magazines. MDP is slapping 9x multiple on the magazine business, and nobody buys that.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts

    by daninfw04 Jan 7, 2016 9:53 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Jan 7, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    It appears that their is no cap on the MEG spectrums sales in the NXST deal. I believe the NXST deal will prevail. Clearly that is what MEG wants and their shareholder base does as well. Nobody wants exposure to the Magazine business. Plus NXST management is better than MDP management, especially when it comes to creating shareholder value.

  • value_invstr by value_invstr Jan 7, 2016 9:14 AM Flag

    $10.55 in cash, .1249 in stock, plus CVR rights (MEG said they will participate) but I didn't see the specifics on the CVR on what the cap is.

  • Reply to

    Value Investor and Media Trader

    by daninfw04 Dec 8, 2015 6:16 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Dec 9, 2015 7:49 AM Flag

    Interesting in that the proposed offer and counter offer has spectrum rights for MEG shareholders

  • Reply to

    Value Investor and Media Trader

    by daninfw04 Dec 8, 2015 6:16 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Dec 8, 2015 8:34 PM Flag

    Think a deal gets done. The math works for nexstar even over $18. They are just playing hard ball but I think it's the best deal for both companies and they work it out. I think Meredith stands down but that's just a guess.

  • Reply to

    Value Investor and Media Trader

    by daninfw04 Dec 8, 2015 6:16 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Dec 8, 2015 7:53 PM Flag

    Very kind of you, but for now I'll pass. By the way CNBC is reporting that NXST offered $16.30 and MEG countered at $18.60, and they are currently at an impass. Sounds to me they are close enough, I believe this deal will get done. Right now the deal is works for both companies at both levels, just arguing on % of synergies.

  • Reply to

    Patience

    by daninfw04 Nov 23, 2015 5:10 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Nov 24, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    This will be interesting, MDP has the balance sheet to pay higher cash component, but NXST has better management and is a pure play. Both have substantial room to go higher and the deal to be accretive to their respective shareholder bases, just a matter of how bad they want it. Could see mid 20's and still be a good deal for both NXST and MDP shareholders, the math works. Although I still say the structure of the deal is more significant than the actually number they value MEG at, given the stock component.

  • Reply to

    Patience

    by daninfw04 Nov 23, 2015 5:10 PM
    value_invstr value_invstr Nov 24, 2015 7:57 AM Flag

    NY Post article today saying that MDP is going after MEG, bidding war is on.

  • Reply to

    Fiber network/cord cutting

    by usesomesense Nov 18, 2015 7:28 AM
    value_invstr value_invstr Nov 23, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    Pro Forma for the acquisition 31% will be fiber. Less than 20% of revenue will come from legacy voice business.

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