According to a new market report published by Transparency Market Research Global and China Insulin Market (Rapid-Acting, Short-Acting, Intermediate-Acting, Long-Acting, Premixed, Modern and Human Insulin) - Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends and Forecast (Value and Volume), 2013 - 2019, the global insulin market was valued at USD 19.99 billion in 2012 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.1% from 2013 to 2019 to reach USD 32.24 billion in 2019.
REGN is valued at 17x sales and 10x next year sales.
Realistically, Mannkind will likely capture 50% of the insulin market if not more.
A $16bln drug market with a conservative 10x on a 10% discounting rate easily values mnkd north of $100. Money generated from afrezza will be used to acquire and research new drugs to guarantee the pipeline.
3 major selling points for mannkind:
1. CURE: Non-diabetic HbA1c - ensure that there will be no diabetes related diseases like
Cardiovascular disease. ...
Nerve damage (neuropathy). ...
Kidney damage (nephropathy). ...
Eye damage (retinopathy). ...
Foot damage. ...
Skin conditions. ...
Hearing impairment. ...
2. CONVENIENCE: No Carb counting - think of how cruel to estimate what you are planning to eat - currently a diabetic has to make up his mind whether he is going for a desert or not.
3. EASE OF USE: no needle pricks
Sit back and enjoy the ride!
While we can recall that Martin Shkreli emailed 12 FDA officials regarding the safety issues of dreamboat, we can declare that SHKRELI IS WRONG based on the actual results from patients after approval. It is now proven that Marty lacks the ability to read the test data and results
Great points, given the current trend it is reasonable to assume that the slow adoption rate. It would take a minimum three months for the word to spread around and probably a year before we could see any meaningful trend. We could even have a few dips now and then. SNY is planning commercials sometime around Q2/Q3. We would see cases of huge spike when some of the diabetic communities/endos overwhelmingly adopt Afrezza. At some when this reaches a critical mass, Afrezza will become viral - to me that could be anytime from now.
There is a very high possibility that the sales could grow exponentially due to the following factors:
1. Patient response and satisfaction FAR EXCEEDS the trial results.
2. Afrezza dosage level prescription can at best only be a basic guidance. Over a period of time the behavioral and human intelligence to self-learn and adapt/adjust to the meal-time demand cannot be prescribed and it is something that evolves by patients' own intuition. This is probably something difficult to prescribe as a process and hence not a quantifiable in the trials.
3. Think from the shoes of a diabetic user who would usually keep at least 3 months stock of existing basal insulin. So there is this new product called "Afrezza" that has a great response for the last 3 months. Given the fact that the Rx renewals are usually in place unless something changes in the yearly check-up, it would be logical to wait for the annuals to make the switch unless there is a very very compelling reason to change it before. Technically, anytime the tide could change and we would see a huge uptick in the script number as the expectation are far below right now.
4. Marketing push from Sanofi will happen in the next quarter given the satisfactory patient response for the first quarter. If you are a CEO, especially a new CEO you would atleast see a quarter or two's performance before approving a big marketing budget. Also, it is important to understand that diabetes is a huge portion of Sanofi's revenue and Sanofi specifically hired a CEO with inhalable insulin background who fully understands the advantages of Afrezza over Exubera.
Given that the stock has priced the maximum pessimism inspite of a relatively failed short attack from Goldman, we have a HUGE upside from here.
Given the soft launch and the low base the weekly numbers have established, the probability of it going