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Celgene Corp. (CELG) Message Board

valueinvestor411 99 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 4, 2015 6:38 PM Member since: Oct 22, 2009
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  • Nasdaq says has to be reported by 3/3 but not made public until 3/10.

    That seems like significant lag time. Is it deemed less fair to be more transparent? Is that why the long delay; to allow short sellers some 'cover'?

  • Reply to

    Last Several Trading Days

    by paazoltsigns Mar 3, 2015 4:23 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Mar 3, 2015 6:56 PM Flag

    technically, when reading between lines, there is a forecast for better financial metrics in 2015... not overwhelming... And Bruce isn't going to overpromise (IMO).

    with expenses being forecast to be lower against flat revs, that would indicate less of a net loss in fy2015. The company was slightly better than low range of cash burn in Q4. I hope/expect that cash burn will diminish.

    Second item is subscription/services revenue being a larger portion of the revenue pie in 2015. So growth in the key lines of business I believe will set up well for 2016. I think the forecast is very low for ip licensing revenue based on flat revs forecast, so there is upside there. IMO, IMO :)

    A big IMO... I think Bruce is setting the bar to be achievable and hopefully beatable in 2015. And setting 2015 up for some positive announcements.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I like DMRC, but ...

    by tnyellowtomcat Mar 3, 2015 3:45 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Mar 3, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    dividend was suspended July 2014 - read transcript from Q2 2014 available on Seeking alpha. Webcast may be available on company web site.

    Company guided to flat revenues and slowly declining expenses in FY2015 with cash burn ~ 1.8M in Q4.

    I think its conservative guidance, but certainly subject to opinions.

    Projecting forward, I would believe FY2016 would be a goal for break even or better. Company does NOT project that far in advance.

    I added on today's weakness.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    What's up??

    by twochiefdukee Mar 2, 2015 1:38 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Mar 2, 2015 6:36 PM Flag

    Not sure what's up but I added a few also.

    Trading at a nice discount to the day the ATM was placed in December and getting close to the ATM price.

    Will continue to nibble on weakness.

    glta

    value

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 28, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    yes... very sarcastic... thx due :)

    and i never drink heavily until evening hours...

    jk - for not owning the stock... you are taking this major spike on ridiculous volume a little too seriously. You've posted quite frequently on cyccs ymb over past day or so...

    Your best post was being long or short cycc is potentially dangerous. We all know it.

    for all longs of cycc I am glad for the opportunity of past days to either sell a little and be made more whole or hopefully have an opportunity to sell some even higher.

    glta

    value

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 28, 2015 8:18 AM Flag

    Spiros was on yahoo and twitter all day monitoring the situation. His exec team is discussing some preplanning feasibility communication strategies and will be prepared to discuss them by Q3CC. At that time they'll move forward with planning or this will all have blown over... In the mean time, rest assured, the situation is being monitored. So please remain calm.

  • It was heading towards a 26.80-26.90 close on about 30k shares and over two thirds of volume hits in the final minute and first few minutes 64k shares didn't drop it that much (30 to 40 cents)

    End of month tidying up of accounts?

    If stays in mid 26s I'll be adding on Monday

    glta

    value

  • Reply to

    short interest out tmr night...

    by valueinvestor411 Feb 24, 2015 8:01 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 25, 2015 9:32 PM Flag

    i'm actually a bit surprised by the spike in short interest. Is it possible an algo or algos that looks at financial metrics alone? Obviously looking at basic P&L could lead one to say 'sell'. of course that is ignoring everything that the company has been working on for the past 15 months and the progress that has been made and displayed just in the past several weeks.

    2015 could be slow trading range activity... but we could also see a 'news out of nowhere' PR come at any point. Think it was sleff who made the statement about lots of irons in the fire. Channel partners with strong relationships with large retailers could close a deal (or deals) any time this year.

    Could even get an upside catalyst from ip licensing ; old or new.

    Either way, on weakness (anything in the 26.xx range or below), i continue accumulating also.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    short interest out tmr night...

    by valueinvestor411 Feb 24, 2015 8:01 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 25, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    wow. almost up to 500k as of about mid month. a 12 month high in short interest.

    So much for not going much higher.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Feb 24, 2015 8:01 PM Flag

    Can it practically go higher than 400k? Relatively low number of shares actively traded.

    I'd guess that it holds steady around 400k

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Christmas in feb....nice trading gift today....

    by mrs_schit Feb 20, 2015 5:10 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 23, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    since it is the holiday season here in Feb, I went ahead and indulged on some additional shares.

    thanks for the presents :)

    glta

    value

  • Reply to

    Christmas in feb....nice trading gift today....

    by mrs_schit Feb 20, 2015 5:10 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 21, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Another comment.

    Company has completely transformed itself in 2 years. While maintaining pristine balance sheet and only doing the one pretty effective capital raise.

    In 2012, subscription revenue accounted for 3 percent of business. In 2014 it accounted for 25 percent as ip licensing business has since dried up. Balance sheet can absorb a slower growth trajectory as they transition to a full fledged subscription + services based company. Where IP licensing will serve as a bump here and there (will provide upside rather than be a 'drag').

    However, they are in superb position to grow quickly at a moment's notice.

    Look forward to the year ahead and hopefully in the not too distant future I can visit a DMRC customer and inspect the scan process personally. No Wegman's near me :(

    glta

    value

  • Reply to

    Christmas in feb....nice trading gift today....

    by mrs_schit Feb 20, 2015 5:10 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 21, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    The analogy to a biotech is a good one. Biggest thing in DMRC's favor is not a binary outcome. I believe a more likely 'worst case' outcome is that sales slowly increase and gains limited market acceptance. The result still could be a profitable business with great technology/intellectual property.

    The most recent quarter hints at the beginning of the growth, showing subscription revenue at a 3 year high (based on 3 years of data). 300K higher than any quarter in that 3 year timeframe. Subscrption rev is a good one to watch in future quarters.

    While 'disruptive' technology ; it does not disrupt the business process. While we all want the customer to adopt fast, the process allows for adoption at the customer's pace. One message I hear through Bruce is that big retail is cautious when implementing a process improvement. Wanting to make sure there is not an unforeseen negative. The ramp up process allows for that without altering the flow of existing business process. Workforce doesn't feel intimidated either by the technology.

    Its low risk and also as Bruce has stated, there's an upgrade cycle of scanners taking place now and this should be able to ride that wave (and even speed it up a bit). So incremental costs are relatively low esp if a scanner upgrade was already in the works.

    Finally, the conservative guidance lends itself to upside. If customer acquisition goes just a little bit quicker or even licensing ip doesn't drop as fast (i think licensing could surprise with the current strength of ip portfolio), could beat their guidance of flat revenues against slowly dropping expenses. With a cash burn rate of $1.8M in Q4, I would expect that to be under $1M by year end trending towards positive in 2016... (assuming very conservative outcome)

    I did add a few shares Friday as well...

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    If a company can't make money after 3 years

    by greendog03 Feb 19, 2015 10:15 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 19, 2015 11:12 PM Flag

    how many years did amazon 'not make money'?

  • Reply to

    Conf Call comments

    by flashwave2000 Feb 19, 2015 6:00 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 19, 2015 8:43 PM Flag

    finally - after a full relisten.

    Like the call... i don't see issue with the product ramp of Wegman's as described by Bruce. Makes sense... customer has a choice to repackage everything 'out of process' or do it during normal package redo. And Bruce says its up to customers. Its an incremental cost to do the repackage 'sooner' than originally planned, but as Bruce stated, he hopes the cost savings will drive the quicker adoption. But completely up to customer.

    Bruce's answer to how to measure success: 'more customers'... no nonsense.

    Analyst did ask question about sequential growth. SEC filing shows y over y growth. I didn't go back to prior quarter. Either way. Strong sequential and y over y growth in subscription is a good 'early' sign.

    The little dialog with Walmart was interesting. Bruce saying 'dont care where they start'... highlighting its what they are willing to disclose publicly. So they could be interested in bar code ; just no disclosure...

    I liked the tone of the call after listening to it in whole.

    If any dips, I'll be adding

    glta

    value

  • Reply to

    Conf Call comments

    by flashwave2000 Feb 19, 2015 6:00 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 19, 2015 7:54 PM Flag

    Listening to the call now...

    A key metric was Seventeen percent growth in strategic revenue (discover/guardian/services)

    I don't think they highlighted this, but subscription revenue alone grew 500k (36 percent) from a low base. Services was about 200k off a much higher base... I would believe subscription revenue is the main area where growth will be seen with the new offerings. So year over year, that's a nice ramp.

  • Reply to

    Conf Call comments

    by flashwave2000 Feb 19, 2015 6:00 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 19, 2015 7:24 PM Flag

    This was largely a recap call from NRF... no significant new info...

    The 'most' postive new item is they foretasted a 'turning' point with regards to financials in 2015... important that they meet or exceed it. flat revenues with the mix being more strategic growth' versus diminishing licensing/royalty business. That coupled with slowly lower expenses would equate to eps and cash burn that trends favorably during 2015. Nothing earth shattering, but the bar has been set.

    Need to relisten to catch the details of the Wegman's ramp. Was somewhat distracted while listening.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Feb 18, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    Google the following words:

    Scanners were supposed to make work easier for clerks and cashiers. But they had an unexpected side effect

    ----

    When I go the super market these days I find myself looking at bar codes and the process.

    Bruce mentioned the positive side-effect of easier on cashiers (health).

    Whlie at the store this past weekend, I watched the cashier twist and turn her arm/wrist very efficiently over the course of scanning my groceries. Lots of ways to benefit from the solution

    cc tmr eve. key word to me = intertia

    glta

    value

  • Reply to

    Did Dart neatly double down? Filing today

    by jathman Feb 13, 2015 12:56 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 14, 2015 9:49 PM Flag

    jantham/ice:

    janth: agree with your sentiment re: keeping the party going.

    Almost felt like he is starting to lose complete grip on reality. A little reminiscent of when he came a little unglued at the JMP analyst for calling a secondary a 'recap'.

    The comment about fully enrolling the study and raising enough cash to fund SEAMLESS. That no one thought they could do it was almost like he was talking to himself. What CEO would make a comment like that to the public. Esp about a trial that had just FAILED futility. You **might** after a successful outcome, proving those 'others' were wrong. Others probably said CYCC couldn't do it because sapa was doomed to failure and so far... they are right.

    The slides about CYC065 were decent. The problem is there is literally no development plan laid out. Other companies we all follow talk about when they plan on launching their p1 (ie Q2 or Q3). But Spiros says 'advance early-stage pipeline' with literally zero upcoming milestones.

    'What are Spiros and Judy and Paul doing each and every day until SEAMLESS reads out? They are blinded to SEAMLESS. MDS won't go anywhere until SEAMLESS reads out. And the one theoretical active p1 hasn't produced PR worthy results in 2 years.

    glta

    value

  • Reply to

    Did Dart neatly double down? Filing today

    by jathman Feb 13, 2015 12:56 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Feb 14, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Looking at the pr when VALOR (SNSS) launched. It stated explicitly that the DSMB interim analysis would have option to add 225 patients. Spiros and team were perhaps super confident in 8 months versus 6 months powering that they felt no such option was needed. Again, odd when DACO-016 had roughly 7 months of mOS with patients 70 or older.

    value

CELG
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