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Celgene Corp. (CELG) Message Board

valueinvestor411 64 posts  |  Last Activity: May 2, 2015 10:48 AM Member since: Oct 22, 2009
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  • google "The department store app that outpaced Uber, Tinder and Nike"

    Bruce's commentary referencing the customer piloting barcode and incorporating digimarc discover into their mobile app sure does align with industry trends.

    The marketing video's that dmrc put out (shoppers journey youtube jun 2013) would appear to be taking shape. And Digimarc is 'ready'.

    ----

    Reviewing Bruce's monologue, it was very deliberate and well thought out. Oddly, the message didn't seem to completely resonate with the analysts on the call with the focus of the questions being away from the key theme.

    Bruce talked about expanding partnerships - quoting '...Notably, we are making good progress implementing our software with other leading retail scanning vendors...' Note plural (should instill more confidence of market in the technology)

    Bruce mentioned about closing a deal completely separate from bar code in audio Watermarking (April)

    Bruce mentioned a new discover/barcode pilot production customer. And mentioned several others doing POCs. (pipeline)

    They have a blitzkrieg of investor presentations and conferences in May. Citing majority of the top 10 retailers in the pipeline [awareness/visibility/pipeline].

    The conference in June (U of Arkansas) aligned tightly with Walmart is yet another reference to that giant retailer.

    ---

    Summary is repeated derisking of the story. From single scanner vendor to multiple in the near term. From one 'production' barcode cutsomer ; to a 2nd just getting started... Other applications of the platform being embraced (Shazam in summer (and providing leads) + a audio watermark deal). Pipeline growing.

    Key is focus and Bruce seems to be doing that even with saying they would likely reorganize and target more focus on Discover platform / Barcode with Guardian not growing as quickly as anticipated.

    Risk/reward still looks great.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    upcoming dmrc events from their web site

    by valueinvestor411 Apr 30, 2015 7:07 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 30, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    There's a link to the U of Arkansas conference (2015 Emerging Trends in Retailing Conference).

    Digimarc is one of a small list of sponsoring companies.

    5 others...

    Kantar Retail (Looks like a data research company)
    NPD Group (market data research too)
    ---
    Smuckers
    ---
    and two Walmart companies (Walmart and Sam's Club)

    I do like the Walmart connection. :)

    glta

    value

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 30, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    UPCOMING EVENTS
    ====
    Toshiba Connect 2015
    Nashville | Dates: 26 Apr – 01 May, 2015
    ==
    Online Webinar - HarperCollins Fights Piracy in the Digital Millennium: the Digimarc Customer Experience
    Dates: 05 – 05 May, 2015
    ==
    16th Annual B. Riley & Co. Investor Conference
    Los Angeles | Dates: 12 – 14 May, 2015
    ==
    Bookexpo America
    New York City | Dates: 27 – 29 May, 2015
    ==
    Cowen 43rd Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
    New York | Dates: 27 – 28 May, 2015
    ==
    GS1 Connect Conference 2015
    Austin | Dates: 01 – 04 Jun, 2015
    ==
    2015 Emerging Trends in Retailing Conference
    Fayatteville | Dates: 11 – 11 Jun, 2015

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    question re: level 2 on dmrc

    by valueinvestor411 Apr 29, 2015 3:18 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 30, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    but why do my odd lots not show up on level 2, where I do see some show up. As a test, today i bid for 99 shares at 23.50. They were purchased. No trace of that activity on level 2. But I see other bids/asks with odd lot #'s.

    thx

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 29, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    I see odd lots showing up in level 2 bid / ask. 7 shares , 15 shares, etc... If I put in a bid like that, it wouldn't show up on level 2. In fact if my 100 share buy gets split into two sells (which has happened), i don't see any activity in level 2. Why do 'some' odd lots show up?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    quote from seeking alpha transcript

    by valueinvestor411 Apr 28, 2015 8:49 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 28, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    How often can you say you are actively selling a 'new' product (pivoting from pilot/r&d) and one quarter later say you have a significant number of the top 10 customers in target area engaged at some level of interest.

    It is a show me stock, but the analyst questions on the call make it clear the focus on Wall St is still on the P&L and legacy business.

    I would try to bring out more of Bruce's opinion / sentiment of the sales interactions. Does he have any anecdotes regarding the interest level. Does he see anybody saying 'we wont be adopting' Does he get any feedback regarding plans/timelines/projects (ie how deep does the dialog get into fitting into budget/project planning cycles of these companies). Usually in such interactions, you can spot if technical folks / process folks are engaged by the q&a... can he give comparison from prior selling experiences..... so much to ask anecdotally... instead they focus on guardian and splitting apart $1M in revenue... and ip licensing which Bruce says is not being actively pursued with new inventions.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 28, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    "...Another large retailer has informed us of intents of being in pilot production soon. The same retailer has begun integration of our software into their mobile app. There are several proof of concept studies relating to front store operations whilst consumer engagement in the planning stages at major retailers and brands...."

    I missed the last sentence and kind of glossed over the 2nd sentence. Sounds like to me a customer enabling themselves on discover platform and several other 'advanced' pipeline candidates... The 3rd sentence is as powerful as the first. If I interpret correctly, that last sentence would be the potential 'next' pilot customers... (customer with an 's')

    Bruce's monologue was packed full of nuggets.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I think I heard 2nd barcode customer starting pilot

    by ou71764 Apr 27, 2015 5:13 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 27, 2015 6:56 PM Flag

    forgot Wegman's ramping up products... to allow for better real world test. Thought that was a very positive development.

    Bruce clearly states another large retailer informed DMRC they are beginning production (assuming packages with embedded bar codes) for a pilot. That one tidbit of info is HUGE.

    This was a very good call.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I think I heard 2nd barcode customer starting pilot

    by ou71764 Apr 27, 2015 5:13 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 27, 2015 6:30 PM Flag

    Irony in the call... bulk of questions about wanting to break out small buckets of revenue. Guardian. IP licensing, expense run rate... things that mean probably the least to the company in the next several quarters/years for digimarc. Other than showing some prudence in spending, etc...

    Most important items were (IMO) were the new customer piloting, the large representation in the prospect pipeline of top retailers. The specific inquires/extensions to the product being made by prospects that aren't directly using 'barcode' in the traditional scan products at the point of sale.

    Tone of this call 'better' than Q4 call (again IMO) largely because NRF stole the Q4 call's thunder. Q4 call was a recap versus new info... This call needed to show building momentum with HOPEFULLY a new customer 'coming'... and for me, it more than delivered. Don't know about PPS tomorrow, but company is moving in the right direction.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I think I heard 2nd barcode customer starting pilot

    by ou71764 Apr 27, 2015 5:13 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 27, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    hey ou. I definitely heard a customer beginning a pilot. I thought barcode, but will need to relisten to hear if barcode specifically or discover platform generally.

    Also thought i heard several top 10 retailers at early stage of prospect selling cycle.

    High level of activity and interest is how Bruce characterized selling process.

    Direction/tone to me was all systems go... This is the type of call I would expect for one quarter in to pivot to sale. Esp when selling to large / complex organizations.

    Mentioning actively working with other scanning companies to have product available by end of year.

    Shazam product launch summer.

    I agree with approach Bruce is laying out. 2015 is about stacking the pipeline, raising awareness... Current cash burn is likely the expectation for remainder of 2015 (~$2M/quarter).... Would like to hear 1 (or more) new customer(s) piloting bar code per quarter... that would make 2016 potentially huge :)

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 27, 2015 11:44 AM Flag

    so in 30 day period... mid March to mid April ; price was up about .50... short interest flat... as some have speculated. Most of the volume, even on light days, is pure buying selling with 'themselves'... Very little real ownership change.

    I've continued to nibble, so have added probably only a few hundred shares in past 30 days also.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 24, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    i have noticed since 4/20 that there has bit only low volume when the bid is hit.

    In past it was bid getting hid pretty hard repeatedly.... on the way down anyway.

    Has our short seller decided to wait things out till after the cc??

    Haven't seen any thumbs down lately on posts either. Kind of disappointing :)

    great weekend to all

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 24, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    at the risk of talking to myself... wow, volume hasn't hit 3k yet. If remains under 10k for the day, would be first time since day after thanksgiving trading fewer than 10k shares.

    Ironically, on day after tgiving it dropped over a buck on 6800 shares

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • It should be a good month for information flow to the investor community.

    Short interest out tmr.

    Conference call after the bell on Monday.

    glta

    value

    -----
    Q1 2015 Earnings Call
    Dates: 27 – 27 Apr, 2015
    ------
    16th Annual B. Riley & Co. Investor Conference
    Los Angeles | Dates: 12 – 14 May, 2015
    -------
    Cowen 43rd Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
    New York | Dates: 27 – 28 May, 2015

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    highest close since March 2

    by valueinvestor411 Apr 16, 2015 4:57 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 20, 2015 6:56 PM Flag

    reclaimed the 50 DMA today. Shorty probably doesn't like that? There weren't many shares showing up for sale as the price ticked up. First time above 50 DMA since late Feb. I highly doubt any short covering today.

    Did they take the day off? :) I did see just a few larger sell orders show up, but they got taken out pretty quickly... I hope they were short sales.

    Looking forward to the update next week. Looks like a few investor conferences in May too to continue to spread the word.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 16, 2015 4:57 PM Flag

    when it closed above $25!

    23.0x has been a wall to get through on the close for a month and a half.. Next resistance? 50 DMA? ~ 24.21 60 DMA? 24.74

    glta

    value

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 15, 2015 10:49 PM Flag

    Problem is those companies are typically very risk averse. GOOG is best candidate (IMO), but even then, what would the offer have to be.

    It would be a combo of insiders and institutions that would get to choose to accept or reject the offer and I'm guessing the offer would have to be much higher than the typical BOD would be willing to offer without healthier traditional financial metrics.

    By the time those metrics materialize, the leverage you refer to will get priced in and they will be chasing.

    IMO, if a company does eventually buy out DMRC, it would be at a much higher price when the model is proven.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 14, 2015 11:11 PM Flag

    23 has been a tough level to close above since early March. It would be nice to see a close nicely above 23.0x.

    Today is maybe 2nd day in a while that i recall the strength of pps carried through to the close. Maybe someone had the day off? :)

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 10, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    So in 12 trading days, the short interest is up 2+ trading days worth of trading activity (over 1/6th of the shares traded were net short sales since prior report).

    That seems crazy when thinking about that with an average equity.

    Short position up over 240k since January 1.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    end of qtr tmmrw...should be interesting...

    by mrs_schit Mar 30, 2015 11:28 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 4, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    end of quarter means Q1 CC on the horizon.

    Based on pps, expectations are low for anything significant being announced.

    My focus will be on tone of Bruce's words. Hints of any deals made or coming and looking for green chutes in the subscription and services revenue buckets.

    About 3-4 weeks away, typically during about 4th week of April.

    With the IV announcements from Shazam and Ford 'maybe' ip licensing surprise too... Certainly not expecting any upside surprise, but anything could put a charge in the pps with it being down in low 20s.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

CELG
110.55+2.490(+2.30%)May 1 4:00 PMEDT