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Celgene Corp. (CELG) Message Board

valueinvestor411 1888 posts  |  Last Activity: May 20, 2015 6:48 PM Member since: Oct 22, 2009
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  • Digimarc Corporation (NASDAQ: DMRC) has been invited to participate on "The Emerging Technology Solutions Addressing the IoT Opportunity" panel...

    So, Its a panel discussion...

    Be interesting to see who is on the panel... etc... and if it will be a web cast.

    May 28th 1pm eastern.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 20, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    I've got to believe that Bruce's message at investor conferences resonates with some... The more he presents and convinces folks, the fewer and fewer shares there are available for buying.

    I don't know how well-attended these conferences are. But because there are so few shares floating around, it won't take many new believers with a chunk of $$ to invest to move this up before any significant public disclosure.

    look forward to Cowan...

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Conference in ark

    by seabird6100 May 18, 2015 12:08 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 18, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    From the company web site ("Events" link at bottom of home page)

    2015 Emerging Trends in Retailing Conference
    Fayatteville | Dates: 11 – 11 Jun, 2015

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    DMRC Q1 institutional buying

    by byronangel May 15, 2015 10:54 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 16, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    From what I could calculate, 13F shares were up slightly over Q4. 3.74million versus 3.69 million. Very steady in total... However...

    I noticed three large liquidations in Q1 (via whaleswisdom) that are odd.

    Axiom , SG Capital and Teacher's advisors (Teachers not quite a full liquidation). All 3 appear to liquidate holdings they acquired in Q4 2014 - exact # of shares. That seems odd?!

    Each of them bought these respective shares in Q4
    67,706 Teachers
    59,982 SG
    35,633 Axiom

    and liquidated the identical # in Q1?!?!?
    67,706 Teachers
    59,982 SG
    35,633 Axiom

    I've not looked so close before (thanks byronangel)

    Doesn't seem like normal fund behavior?? And I could see that happening 1 time based on relatively small # of insti's holding more than 20k shares, but 3 of the largest buys in Q4 being sold in Q1?

    Wild theory on the #'s... Maybe related to Q4 liquidation of Turner (ticker TSCEX), they bought Turners and sold em in Q1?!?! I remember reseraching and seeing a big liquidation by TSCEX and payout in Q4.

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Today's importance

    by twochiefdukee May 15, 2015 1:10 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 15, 2015 6:32 PM Flag

    wow. what did Bruce say in the break out room? :)

    FWIW: along with above all the moving averages getting taken out, also closed positive on the year. Up from 27.15

    Another get the word out investor conference at the end of May (Cowen).

    Then GS1 conference.

    Then Univ of Arkansas.

    Rapid fire!

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 May 14, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    dmrcfan called it... Same/similar content... More confidence. Really like the rfid/nfc question and Bruce's answer.

    He called out explicitly, market cap does not reflect potential.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 13, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    Looks like webcasts are available for yesterdays meetings and not today's yet. Will check tonight or tomorrow for availability of today's presentation by Bruce.

    Presentation was at 1:30pm eastern. PPS was around 24.50 heading in and moved higher afterwards. Don't know if coincidental :)

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Big Short Interest Increase

    by strategy_50 May 11, 2015 4:10 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 11, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    The astounding thing to me... is the 90k net new short is about 30% of the shares traded during the time. And assuming some short covering, ALOT of shares are being sold short as part of the daily volume. Assuming just 30k short covering in that time period, 150k of 300k shares are transactions directly relating to selling short or covering.

    Seems crazy...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 6, 2015 7:46 PM Flag

    interesting sleff... 800k shares traded on russell index add day (late June 2010). long before my time... biggest day ever? ; higher than even the secondary done last December.

    And it was above 10% of the outstanding shares at the time.

    Would think pre-arranged sales would be in order... but would have to convince someone to sell the large blocks.

    pps was ~ $20... up from $15 from first of 2010...

    glta

    value

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 6, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    years ago would explain it. Just a few years back, it wasn't clear where growth was going to come from, that certainly changed in past 2 years. If prior to that, then it may have looked like good short. Now it is a trap or at least very dangerous to be very short.

    If calls were available, that would at least be one way to hedge out max pain.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 6, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    question regarding naked short position.

    you've given great detail about how... and then circumstantial evidence as the trading patterns around protecting it.

    But why is the question? Unlike an algo, a human has ability to perform detailed due diligence. Even if reading the analyst views with glass half empty view point, the risk reward of a large short position is 'dangerous' from the low # of shares actively being traded. If things go bad, they could go real bad for a large short position quickly. Why take the risk if dd has been done? And why not scale out. If calls could be purchased, that would certainly be a way to reduce risk. Could they have done non traditional long term out of the money call options to hedge? Someone willing to sell them? Obviously traditional calls are not available via exchange.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Last week of price action...

    by valueinvestor411 May 4, 2015 3:19 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 5, 2015 9:09 AM Flag

    good point.. I was inferring that quants and algos were effectively manipulating due to the likely screens that they use and would see dmrc as a sell versus a buy. algos could equivalently push the stock up as down... although bias likely down.

    You are right... alleged manipulation by someone (not algos) has been allged here (not on cc)... spike in short interest is at least one clue... others with more expertise have basis for other 'real' manipulation based on patterns of trading, etc... that do seem to play out each month and quarter.

    i'm a continued buyer on manipulated or algo driven weakness :)

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Last week of price action...

    by valueinvestor411 May 4, 2015 3:19 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 4, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    i think 10q consistent with message. only repurchase to offset dilution.

    Thinking of last 45 days. Bruce has sold 14k shares at about 22.50 average. If Bruce feels 27.50 start of year price is fair value (I believe he thinks its alot higher), he left 70k on the table in last 45 days. mini-ouch.

    The algos/manipulation that Bruce called out last summer is costing him some significant coin lately.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Last week of price action...

    by valueinvestor411 May 4, 2015 3:19 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 4, 2015 7:12 PM Flag

    From the 10Q - The following table sets forth information regarding purchases of our equity securities during the three-month period ended March 31, 2015:

    They repurchased 17,371 shares during Q1 at average price of $28.55 ; mostly during Feb.

    Have to work on the timing :)

    They do so to alleviate dilution for exercising of options (mostly Bruce)

    if they repurchased in April, they retired em cheaply... need 15k or more to keep up with Bruce each quarter.

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 May 4, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    Month end mark down sure does coincide with sticking it to Bruce's inside sell.

    I'd think Bruce is getting tired of getting his 5k sale marked down each month.

    Everyone knows when its coming... certainly allows manipulation into that sale.

    Ironically, the shares get bought back by dmrc so it allows those shares to be bought back at a nice discount. I'm guessing not one that Bruce likes giving.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • google "The department store app that outpaced Uber, Tinder and Nike"

    Bruce's commentary referencing the customer piloting barcode and incorporating digimarc discover into their mobile app sure does align with industry trends.

    The marketing video's that dmrc put out (shoppers journey youtube jun 2013) would appear to be taking shape. And Digimarc is 'ready'.

    ----

    Reviewing Bruce's monologue, it was very deliberate and well thought out. Oddly, the message didn't seem to completely resonate with the analysts on the call with the focus of the questions being away from the key theme.

    Bruce talked about expanding partnerships - quoting '...Notably, we are making good progress implementing our software with other leading retail scanning vendors...' Note plural (should instill more confidence of market in the technology)

    Bruce mentioned about closing a deal completely separate from bar code in audio Watermarking (April)

    Bruce mentioned a new discover/barcode pilot production customer. And mentioned several others doing POCs. (pipeline)

    They have a blitzkrieg of investor presentations and conferences in May. Citing majority of the top 10 retailers in the pipeline [awareness/visibility/pipeline].

    The conference in June (U of Arkansas) aligned tightly with Walmart is yet another reference to that giant retailer.

    ---

    Summary is repeated derisking of the story. From single scanner vendor to multiple in the near term. From one 'production' barcode cutsomer ; to a 2nd just getting started... Other applications of the platform being embraced (Shazam in summer (and providing leads) + a audio watermark deal). Pipeline growing.

    Key is focus and Bruce seems to be doing that even with saying they would likely reorganize and target more focus on Discover platform / Barcode with Guardian not growing as quickly as anticipated.

    Risk/reward still looks great.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    upcoming dmrc events from their web site

    by valueinvestor411 Apr 30, 2015 7:07 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 30, 2015 7:28 PM Flag

    There's a link to the U of Arkansas conference (2015 Emerging Trends in Retailing Conference).

    Digimarc is one of a small list of sponsoring companies.

    5 others...

    Kantar Retail (Looks like a data research company)
    NPD Group (market data research too)
    ---
    Smuckers
    ---
    and two Walmart companies (Walmart and Sam's Club)

    I do like the Walmart connection. :)

    glta

    value

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 30, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    UPCOMING EVENTS
    ====
    Toshiba Connect 2015
    Nashville | Dates: 26 Apr – 01 May, 2015
    ==
    Online Webinar - HarperCollins Fights Piracy in the Digital Millennium: the Digimarc Customer Experience
    Dates: 05 – 05 May, 2015
    ==
    16th Annual B. Riley & Co. Investor Conference
    Los Angeles | Dates: 12 – 14 May, 2015
    ==
    Bookexpo America
    New York City | Dates: 27 – 29 May, 2015
    ==
    Cowen 43rd Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference
    New York | Dates: 27 – 28 May, 2015
    ==
    GS1 Connect Conference 2015
    Austin | Dates: 01 – 04 Jun, 2015
    ==
    2015 Emerging Trends in Retailing Conference
    Fayatteville | Dates: 11 – 11 Jun, 2015

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    question re: level 2 on dmrc

    by valueinvestor411 Apr 29, 2015 3:18 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 30, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    but why do my odd lots not show up on level 2, where I do see some show up. As a test, today i bid for 99 shares at 23.50. They were purchased. No trace of that activity on level 2. But I see other bids/asks with odd lot #'s.

    thx

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 29, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    I see odd lots showing up in level 2 bid / ask. 7 shares , 15 shares, etc... If I put in a bid like that, it wouldn't show up on level 2. In fact if my 100 share buy gets split into two sells (which has happened), i don't see any activity in level 2. Why do 'some' odd lots show up?

    Sentiment: Buy

CELG
116.20-0.66(-0.56%)May 21 4:00 PMEDT