Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Celgene Corporation Message Board

valueinvestor411 100 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 28, 2016 3:24 PM Member since: Oct 22, 2009
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    True Believers

    by zippybalto Apr 28, 2016 10:37 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 28, 2016 3:24 PM Flag

    well... as you believe we are all in fantasy land... i believe not covering a short after a 50 percent gain in a few months to hope it crashes to zero is perhaps bordering on arrogance.

    there is something called opportunity cost. you've now waited 6 months to patiently watch your 50% gain turn into 25%-30%.

    Personally, in the same time period many patient investors here have also traded shares around a core holding... to lower cost basis and take advantage of the volatility you accurately described.

    any thoughts as to the partners that are also investing their own time and dollars into the venture... scanner vendors, gs1, packaging vendors like sgs and schawk... those don't guarantee anything, but they do point to legitimacy.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    True Believers

    by zippybalto Apr 28, 2016 10:37 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 28, 2016 12:08 PM Flag

    follow up on your post... have investors in digimarc since 1995 done ok? i have not known Bruce since 1999... and to say 'there isn't revenue until there is ' is a hard thesis to argue with. Since 1999, have you seen progress similar to today? industry alignment (ie gs1 other partners) organized this well previously?

    they don't have to make huge sums of money for the pps to rise or at worse, not go down. the risk / reward was favorable at 40... at 22 you certainly had a nice tidy gain in short order... Curious as to why hold it once 50% was made in 3-4 months...

    glta

    value

  • Reply to

    True Believers

    by zippybalto Apr 28, 2016 10:37 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 28, 2016 11:49 AM Flag

    my question is why short at $40 ; watch it drop to $22 and not cover?

    good trade for now... I'd have said great trade if you said covered in the mid 20s in late October... 6 months later, have lost a good chunk of the gain.. and there's no long term gain tax benefit on a short position.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 27, 2016 7:49 PM Flag

    the 'mystery' announcement was NOT trail blazers... Bruce said hoping to have it public by q1 cc... its a top priority to show visible signs. hope for q2...

    i liked hearing product on shelves in retailers not Wegmans and New Seasons. Would love to start searching other stores shelves... esp one in my region.

    I liked the color about cpgs waiting for retailers to say 'yes'.

    shorts will try to push it down... i think... but i still show shares hard to borrow high rate of interest (12)... so would have to believe creativity would be in order.

    shorts need larger owners to cough up shares (my opinion)... i see that as low liklihood with gs1 launch + bruce pushing hard for the 'mystery' announcement. etc...

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 27, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    flat as a pancake... days to cover up to 20 due to volume decline

    1.513 mill versus 1.503 last period

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Apple and Digimarc

    by strategy_50 Apr 18, 2016 4:43 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 18, 2016 9:23 PM Flag

    i believe that is just dmrc's own marketing verbiage for their app in the itunes store. similar to any app available on itunes.

  • not sure why the delay in reporting... seemed to be across the board for all equities.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    the world's biggest brand

    by flashwave2000 Apr 7, 2016 9:49 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 8, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    not sure slee's 'tell'... one element is the scan itself... when i scan another image that is shazam enabled digimarc's app knows its watermarked, but doesn't take you to the desired result.

    in this case, discover doesn't recognize the images as being watermarked... shazam knows they are shazam enabled.

  • Reply to

    the world's biggest brand

    by flashwave2000 Apr 7, 2016 9:49 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 8, 2016 4:55 PM Flag

    thx slee for setting record straight.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    the world's biggest brand

    by flashwave2000 Apr 7, 2016 9:49 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 7, 2016 10:26 PM Flag

    ironically they are represented on the gs1 board of governors :)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • fnra only provides nyse and nasdaq volumes. This used to be meaningful volume 30-50% of total on a regular basis. Last few weeks i've seen a trend where less and less volume is showing up on the daily activity reports. Especially on higher volume days.

    on Tuesday total volume = 154.8k. fnra nasdaq only shows 16455 (only about 10 percent)
    on Monday total volume = 147k and fnra nasdaq showed 31k (just over 20 percent)

    on Thursday 3/31 only 15k out of 115k showed up on fnra

    one side-effect to not having a nasdaq execution is less transparency.

    any thoughts as to why the relative volume (compared to total volume) hitting nasdaq is waning of late?

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 6, 2016 12:17 AM Flag

    my humble opinion is that it would be a symbolic gesture that would be absolutely awesome... Would really get shorts 'thinking'....

    but in medium / long term would mean little. As you stated, its about revenue / profit & loss.

    i've seen insiders be right and wrong on buys... in the end its execution.

    your compares to JPM are interesting... DMRC is quite a bit riskier than JPM and Bruce does own quite a bit of the company... how concentrated are each of them relative to the risk and their outside wealth...

    Always good to look at one's investments as objectively as possible from all angles. Skepticism is healthy.

    my view is that the technology will be adopted. (process engineering 101) the 64k question is how profitable will the business be. so many variables and we don't know any of the financial modeling or details of likely how deals are getting negotiated to affect forecasting.

    as you stated, the foundation has been laid well. and still are questions to be answered. what are biggest gating factors? how fast can package enablement scale? based on q3 cc commentary of early packaging backlog/sgs had just come more fully online. Also scanner upgrades - what type of traction are the new scanners getting... In stores around here, i see them becoming more and more visible.

    Irony of the Trail Blazer announcement is that it appears they've been using the technology since beginning of the season. And now at end of season, they PR their use. Its positive because they have been using it and NOW are allowing the deal to be fully public. Its interesting because they have likely been working together for at least 8 months (or more) I bet. Alot can happen without it being 'obvious' to the general public.

    GS1 connect feels like the next potential non explicit revenue catalyst.

    glta

    value

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 2, 2016 11:19 AM Flag

    how common is the discretion option on trades? i had to look up what it meant.

    Interesting concept. Do you think its liability why they would stop?

  • Reply to

    By April or sooner........

    by twochiefdukee Mar 29, 2016 11:21 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Mar 31, 2016 12:14 AM Flag

    Bruce also sold twice in 2015 outside of the normal 1st of month exercise of options.

    Sept 2015 and March 2015. He did so at least once in 2014.

    Also seems like once per quarter, there is a transaction for most execs which is divesting stock to cover tax liability.

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Mar 25, 2016 1:42 PM Flag

    from 40 percent to 65 percent. That's a pretty hefty bump. That is one thing i had not considered in terms of squeezing liquidity on dmrc.

    Interesting to see if others follow suit. Could be impactful long or short... guessing it would affect the large short interest more than long side.

    It went it to effect about midday yesterday

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Guessing game time...

    by twochiefdukee Mar 23, 2016 7:33 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Mar 23, 2016 10:00 PM Flag

    i'll guess +20k. naz volume showed 71k shares traded with 53k involving a short transaction today. I agree that i'd like to see shorts starting to cover... but I don't think that is what they are doing (yet).

    question is were those dips down to 26 bought by shorts covering OR longs looking to add. I think they were short induced.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Mar 23, 2016 6:53 PM Flag

    fyi

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Mar 21, 2016 8:35 PM Flag

    recall mrs_s saying shorts don't typically like that... has to do with days to settle?

  • Reply to

    amazon flow

    by greenirishblackirish Mar 20, 2016 1:32 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Mar 20, 2016 9:27 AM Flag

    GS1 USA is collaborating with dmrc and appears to be setup to become the de facto seller. did they already collaborate with amazon to embrace flow technology? In order to build out standards so that industry can leverage technology in a common more efficient manner?

    remember greenie, quoting gs1usa themselves: '... Today GS1
    US is embracing a new way to help businesses move forward and consumers to get
    the data about the products they use. Together, Digimarc and GS1 US will support
    the needs of members and consumers by leveraging unique product identification
    and improved data quality through an enhanced invisible-to-the-untrained-eye
    barcode. By providing faster and easier access to accurate product information, the
    relationship will greatly improve the commerce experience by improving the quantity
    and quality of product information available to consumers and greatly speeding
    front-of-store checkout....'

    are they doing the same with flow?

    If you disparage dmrc, you are effectively disparaging the judgement of gs1 usa and all of their collaborating partners spending time, money to integrate and market dmrc technology. datalogic, zebra, honeywell, ncr and many others.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    after the wicth

    by greenirishblackirish Mar 18, 2016 9:10 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Mar 19, 2016 12:13 AM Flag

    from gs1's own marketing material... quoting the FAQ from the gs1us web site

    '... Today GS1 US is embracing a new way to help businesses move forward and consumers to get
    the data about the products they use. Together, Digimarc and GS1 US will support
    the needs of members and consumers by leveraging unique product identification
    and improved data quality through an enhanced invisible-to-the-untrained-eye
    barcode. By providing faster and easier access to accurate product information, the
    relationship will greatly improve the commerce experience by improving the quantity
    and quality of product information available to consumers and greatly speeding
    front-of-store checkout....'

    greenie won't touch it because it requires acknowledging it. its easier to try to discredit a single voice / entity. gs1 is a not for profit org run for the sole purpose of '...serving more than 2 million businesses in 25 industries in the United States by facilitating industry initiatives, administrating the GS1 System of standards, providing education and support, and connecting communities through events and online forums...'

    gs1 states 'We are neutral and not-for-profit. We succeed when industries and companies derive value from using our standards.'

    go get em greenie...

    Sentiment: Buy

CELG
103.9701+0.5601(+0.54%)10:08 AMEDT