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Celgene Corporation Message Board

valueinvestor411 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 23, 2016 9:22 AM Member since: Oct 22, 2009
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  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 2, 2016 11:19 AM Flag

    how common is the discretion option on trades? i had to look up what it meant.

    Interesting concept. Do you think its liability why they would stop?

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 6, 2016 12:17 AM Flag

    my humble opinion is that it would be a symbolic gesture that would be absolutely awesome... Would really get shorts 'thinking'....

    but in medium / long term would mean little. As you stated, its about revenue / profit & loss.

    i've seen insiders be right and wrong on buys... in the end its execution.

    your compares to JPM are interesting... DMRC is quite a bit riskier than JPM and Bruce does own quite a bit of the company... how concentrated are each of them relative to the risk and their outside wealth...

    Always good to look at one's investments as objectively as possible from all angles. Skepticism is healthy.

    my view is that the technology will be adopted. (process engineering 101) the 64k question is how profitable will the business be. so many variables and we don't know any of the financial modeling or details of likely how deals are getting negotiated to affect forecasting.

    as you stated, the foundation has been laid well. and still are questions to be answered. what are biggest gating factors? how fast can package enablement scale? based on q3 cc commentary of early packaging backlog/sgs had just come more fully online. Also scanner upgrades - what type of traction are the new scanners getting... In stores around here, i see them becoming more and more visible.

    Irony of the Trail Blazer announcement is that it appears they've been using the technology since beginning of the season. And now at end of season, they PR their use. Its positive because they have been using it and NOW are allowing the deal to be fully public. Its interesting because they have likely been working together for at least 8 months (or more) I bet. Alot can happen without it being 'obvious' to the general public.

    GS1 connect feels like the next potential non explicit revenue catalyst.

    glta

    value

  • fnra only provides nyse and nasdaq volumes. This used to be meaningful volume 30-50% of total on a regular basis. Last few weeks i've seen a trend where less and less volume is showing up on the daily activity reports. Especially on higher volume days.

    on Tuesday total volume = 154.8k. fnra nasdaq only shows 16455 (only about 10 percent)
    on Monday total volume = 147k and fnra nasdaq showed 31k (just over 20 percent)

    on Thursday 3/31 only 15k out of 115k showed up on fnra

    one side-effect to not having a nasdaq execution is less transparency.

    any thoughts as to why the relative volume (compared to total volume) hitting nasdaq is waning of late?

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    the world's biggest brand

    by flashwave2000 Apr 7, 2016 9:49 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 7, 2016 10:26 PM Flag

    ironically they are represented on the gs1 board of governors :)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    the world's biggest brand

    by flashwave2000 Apr 7, 2016 9:49 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 8, 2016 4:55 PM Flag

    thx slee for setting record straight.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    the world's biggest brand

    by flashwave2000 Apr 7, 2016 9:49 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 8, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    not sure slee's 'tell'... one element is the scan itself... when i scan another image that is shazam enabled digimarc's app knows its watermarked, but doesn't take you to the desired result.

    in this case, discover doesn't recognize the images as being watermarked... shazam knows they are shazam enabled.

  • not sure why the delay in reporting... seemed to be across the board for all equities.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Apple and Digimarc

    by strategy_50 Apr 18, 2016 4:43 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 18, 2016 9:23 PM Flag

    i believe that is just dmrc's own marketing verbiage for their app in the itunes store. similar to any app available on itunes.

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 27, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    flat as a pancake... days to cover up to 20 due to volume decline

    1.513 mill versus 1.503 last period

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 Apr 27, 2016 7:49 PM Flag

    the 'mystery' announcement was NOT trail blazers... Bruce said hoping to have it public by q1 cc... its a top priority to show visible signs. hope for q2...

    i liked hearing product on shelves in retailers not Wegmans and New Seasons. Would love to start searching other stores shelves... esp one in my region.

    I liked the color about cpgs waiting for retailers to say 'yes'.

    shorts will try to push it down... i think... but i still show shares hard to borrow high rate of interest (12)... so would have to believe creativity would be in order.

    shorts need larger owners to cough up shares (my opinion)... i see that as low liklihood with gs1 launch + bruce pushing hard for the 'mystery' announcement. etc...

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    True Believers

    by zippybalto Apr 28, 2016 10:37 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 28, 2016 11:49 AM Flag

    my question is why short at $40 ; watch it drop to $22 and not cover?

    good trade for now... I'd have said great trade if you said covered in the mid 20s in late October... 6 months later, have lost a good chunk of the gain.. and there's no long term gain tax benefit on a short position.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    True Believers

    by zippybalto Apr 28, 2016 10:37 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 28, 2016 12:08 PM Flag

    follow up on your post... have investors in digimarc since 1995 done ok? i have not known Bruce since 1999... and to say 'there isn't revenue until there is ' is a hard thesis to argue with. Since 1999, have you seen progress similar to today? industry alignment (ie gs1 other partners) organized this well previously?

    they don't have to make huge sums of money for the pps to rise or at worse, not go down. the risk / reward was favorable at 40... at 22 you certainly had a nice tidy gain in short order... Curious as to why hold it once 50% was made in 3-4 months...

    glta

    value

  • Reply to

    True Believers

    by zippybalto Apr 28, 2016 10:37 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 Apr 28, 2016 3:24 PM Flag

    well... as you believe we are all in fantasy land... i believe not covering a short after a 50 percent gain in a few months to hope it crashes to zero is perhaps bordering on arrogance.

    there is something called opportunity cost. you've now waited 6 months to patiently watch your 50% gain turn into 25%-30%.

    Personally, in the same time period many patient investors here have also traded shares around a core holding... to lower cost basis and take advantage of the volatility you accurately described.

    any thoughts as to the partners that are also investing their own time and dollars into the venture... scanner vendors, gs1, packaging vendors like sgs and schawk... those don't guarantee anything, but they do point to legitimacy.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    mtrx--short at will

    by greenirishblackirish May 3, 2016 10:49 PM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 4, 2016 11:15 AM Flag

    obviously in the minority re: covering... as short interest would indicate, not alot of covering happening yet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 by valueinvestor411 May 6, 2016 1:40 PM Flag

    longest streak in a long time...

    days to cover metric will likely continue to rise at the next short interest readout.

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 6, 2016 1:46 PM Flag

    thx for this. and its really the CEO of Wynn to call it out... but Cramer does a good job of acknowledging it and complimenting the CEO for calling it out.

  • Reply to

    Blackrock now below 5%

    by bridgejumper08 May 11, 2016 7:55 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 11, 2016 9:08 AM Flag

    what do you make of DNB asset management? keen to get in? or Punch and associates?

    some instis are adding some are cutting...

  • per naz site, says due out May 10th after the close... last few reporting periods it did not come out until mid of the following day... This time its a full 24 hours behind (and counting). Nothing like timely transparency.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 12, 2016 10:21 AM Flag

    with volume trending back towards historical norms, days to cover is almost 30 (28.9 per naz). That site shows a 12 month view of short interest. June 15th shows roughly same avg volume but only 1/3 the short interest... have to think a spike to near 30 hits some screens... very interesting

    glta

    value

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Blackrock now below 5%

    by bridgejumper08 May 11, 2016 7:55 AM
    valueinvestor411 valueinvestor411 May 18, 2016 5:49 PM Flag

    not sure i understand. r u saying did they buy in the 5s? some did I'm sure. Perhaps that is when instis started buying/adding more agressively. Looks like Q1 was slightly net adds. I added too.

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