12 month? .50 - .75 After FDA fail it's going to get hammered. Then they have nothing else so it'll only be worth the cash they have.
Of course it's blind pumping at this point. ETRM will use this opportunity to dilute and then FDA will not recommend for approval. Perfect shorting opportunity. Buy Puts!
The simplest advice I can give is don't buy stocks that have already gone up. The secret is to find the ones that nobody is buying currently and sit on it.
One fear I have fear is the dribbling out of what little assets they have just to fix their problems. I also am worried that Q3 had repercussions from the restatements. Q3 had to be affected by the miscalculated reserve loss as well as previous restatements. It makes me believe the new TBV will be something like $6.00 for Q3. That along with the incoming capital raise doesn't leave much room between the current pps and the resulting post Q3 TBV. I have to think the final TBV will be something like $4.00 when all is said and done. Which leaves it up for recover but like you said the ice cube is melting from there on. There just isn't that much value left here. We're also a month into Q4 which also had to be affected negatively by the previous issues.
Hmm wonder if they'll need another waiver for Q3 come friday. Even if they do get it out on time I'm not confident in this company's abilities to be even remotely competent at this point. Q3 is likely a mess.
Don't you guys read the 10Qs? They are going to dilute as per latest 2ndQ 10Q:
The credit facility is used for general corporate purposes. On October 11, 2013, we amended such credit facility to reduce the borrowing capacity to $70 million and change its maturity date to May 30, 2014. In addition, the convertible senior notes mature on September 15, 2014. Management’s plans with regards to generating sources of cash to satisfy these borrowings include: (i) a $30 million preferred stock issuance in the fourth quarter of 2013 (see “Note 19 – Subsequent Events” for details on the convertible preferred stock; (ii) the sale of investments held by Tower’s holding company subsidiaries; and (iii) through cash obtained through other private sales of securities or other strategic options Tower’s Board of Directors is reviewing with its lead financial advisor, JP Morgan Securities LLC.
They have 4 days to report material info. But yeah they are waiting till the last minute. Just waiting for all the wheels to fall off now.
This just out: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/northwest-biotherapeutics-announces-proposed-public-230500968.html
Looks like dilution.
"but those 5 million shares are still being held by most buyers. "
I dount that. I'm sure most of those shares have changed hands many times.
I'm a fan of the single basket theory and have made the most this way. But it only works if:
1) There is significant undervalue of the asset.
2) Management is competent and you can believe in them.
3) It's an asset you are willing to hold for years.
TWGP never fell into that category for me. At best it seemed like 1) was operable but 2) and 3) never were hence I bought very slowly and with small amounts. I finally stopped because 2) and 3) still were not likely.
You win some and you learn some. I learned this lesson the hard way in the past to not go big on black box financial value plays.
So what happens with the Barclays agreement now? A material restatement was a cause to terminate the last waiver agreement?
Yeah that's right. Everyone who points out a fact is short lol.