I am doing great.
why would you think that I am not?
I did not slither away. I just chose to decrease my participation on this board. Unlike you, I don't need this board to augment my full and happy life.
And my view about HK is still the correct one. A highly speculative stock that one should invest only a small amount of one's assets in, realizing that it is a risky play. I certainly hope they do well, as I have a small amount of my assets in the stock. But I don't let that cause me to lose sight of reality or to sink to the level of you and your companions who love to be mean and call people names , harrass them and lie about them and make sick inappropriate comments .
so have fun tucker with your friends. If you think they are your friends, then i do feel sorry for you.
the tireless expert posters on this board. Frick and oilman , and trollen and others too numerous to mention.
What a class act you guys are, so knowledgeable and honest and helpful to the board.
And besides that, you are so fairminded and kind to those who are not knowing like you , or those who may not agree with you.
Thanks, keep up the good work.
what a great job you do.
so selfless and generous of you to give your time and effort to the board and provide such valuable information. And you are so honest and thorough.
Everybody should be thanking you.
your post is garbage.
You and your sidekick so called experts like oilman2345 fool the yokels on this board easily, because so many are truly clueless, but you don't fool knowledgeable people.
If you knew anything about the energy business , AS YOU frequently claim, you would know that with leasing energy rights / contracts , the devil is in the details. So one might pay a higher price per acre but actually have made a better deal if it is for A HIGHER WORKING INTEREST and HIGHER NET REVENUE INTEREST. One can pay naturally a lower price per acre with lower WI and NRI, but that clearly does not mean that it was a great buy. Furthermore, your asertion that FLoyd was early mover in the TMS eastern play, (the recent acquisition part) is so absurd that it is laughable. Heck they bought it from ECA, not from the original owners, by definition they are not early to the play.
And then you have to also factor in the quality of the leases. All physical areas in the vicinity are NOT equal. And floyd has had a solid record of buying inferior properties and overpaying for them in the Halcon experience.
They were earlier to the western part of the TMS, but have only drilled a dry hole there.
Your assertion that HK is sitting on a fat profit on the newly acquired TMS leases is so absurd that it is laughable.
this post is not meant to make a prediction .
Rather just a reality check from the real world.
The real world of money .
The real world of professionals
So distant from this board.
Ok the question is , which of the following two does the market say is the MORE LIKELY SCENARIO?
1. HK to $2 by jan 2016
2. HK to $10 by jan 2015
look at the options market for the clue to the answer, ie the Jan 2016 $2 puts and $10 calls.
Which is priced higher?
zoombee recent post
"zoom_bee • Mar 9, 2014 7:23 AM Flag
2users liked this postsusers disliked this posts1Reply
Maybe if you explain NRI like this someone will see the light.
HK total operating revenues for 2013 were approximately $1 Billion ($999.5 M).
Production for the fourth quarter of 2013 averaged 40,217 BOE/D.
Production for the year of 2013 averaged 37,489 BOE/D.
Production for the year increased 254% year over year,
A 254% year over year increase in our average daily
HK participated in drilling 284 wells (107.4 Net) in core asset areas for 25,764 BOE/D
Now take the NRI of 77% of $1B and after all operating costs – net revenue is $770M "
(end of zoombee's post)
This is absolute proof that Zoombee does not have even rudimentary knowledge of what he posts about. Ie less than kindergarten level
AND since no one corrected him, it indicates that the rest of the "so called experts" on the board apparently don't have knowledge either
I mean the errors are so obvious to a pro that it is truly hilarious .
And yes, I am superior, not too hard to do with this crowd of yokels.
was that the same crystal ball you used when you predicted $6-7 after the november 2013 report of 3Q earnings or the one you use when you said $5 after the feb 2014 earnings report of the 4q2013?Or is it the one you use when you sign in as gideon sword or kirby decker and predict $10-15 in a year and a half.
how is your buddy zoom doing. Not only does he not know how to interpret the well stats, he does not understand NRI net revenue interest.
What a joke you and your alias's are, and your cronies ar s just bad
maybe I should just post TY dsc
you miss the point.
I am not bearish, I am not flip flopping . I am describing facts about the fundamental REALITIES. Those realities have positives AND negatives. I am merely pointing out that including the positives and the negatives, that the extreme view of either bankruptcy OR the shares doubling in the next year are both UNLIKELY. That has been my message, and is my message, and will be my message until the facts point differently.
When a post of mine speaks to the positives, you apparently interpret that I am bullish , when a post or a portion of a post speaks to negative, you apparently interpret that I am bearish, then you conclude I am flip flopping, instead of appropriately taking the comprehensive message.
That is your fault , not mine.
NO , oilman, read the post again.
I said," TMS as it stands now has a very low WI of 66% and a high royalty payment of 22% , so the NRI (net revenue interest) is only 51%!!! see pg38 of latest presentation. That means HK will only get 51 % of any revenue generated by TMS wells,"
SO I SAID EXACTLY as you did, the NRI is after the royalty payment is taken out.
once again you owe me and the board an apology, but knowing your immaturity , lack of integrity, I don't expect it.
You are not in the know, the point is that the JV partner is demanding a bigger part of the revenue than what HK can afford to give, if HK wants to move the needle.
I know more about this than you, and once again you PROVE that you are a lower element.
being dug out about the TMS JV
The deal supposedly done, weeks ago. But it did not close , and is still being "negotiated".
Problem is HK, being in the extremely poor financial position it is, the jv partner knows that and is demanding too much to grant the carry . problem with that is that even if HK is successful in the TMS, and that is not by any means certain, they won't profit that much from it.
Fact, even without having to give more of the profits (working interest ) to a JV partner, the financials on the TMS as it stands now has a very low WI of 66% and a high royalty payment of 22% , so the NRI (net revenue interest) is only 51%!!! see pg38 of latest presentation. That means HK will only get 51 % of any revenue generated by TMS wells, Hard to move the needle with that burden. And if they add a JV partner at UNFAVORABLE terms, even lower. It means even with drilling success, incrementally it does not move the needle as much.
Looking at the other core properties paints a similar picture. We know HK is allocating more capex to the "most economic" areas, the best area in the Williston (FBIR=fortberthold) has a lower NRI of only 55% versus the 65% in the Williams county less economic area. And in El Halcon, NRI is a paltry 53% (pg21) due to high 25%royalty etc. So the conclusions is that even with very good drilling result, HK will have a very difficult road ahead to move the needle , given the high debt load, and high sharecount etc.
Facts, not opinion. Those who study things understand why the shareprice of HK is where it is.
The haters can now try to divert from the truth by the usual name calling etc, but won't change the truth of this post.
good story oilman,
what does that get HK to price wise by end of 2014?
when you run out the means of using any reasonable logic , because you are so feeble when it comes to intellect, you always resort to the threat of violence and how you would love to beat me up.
I will say this, and say it once, but I want to say it LOUD and CLEAR
I don't think you are man enough to do so
I think I could easily defend myself against you
I am not threatening you or looking for a fight, not because I am fearful, but because I believe it is wrong to threaten people or incite a fight for no good reason. Your behavior is immature and WRONG.
By I want to say it loud and clear that I reject your poor behavior and think you are a true coward.
And I will defend myself and my loved ones by all means against you.
You are a coward.
you have firmly established your place with the lower elements.
Too bad I had hopes for you, I think you are a cut above them, but you are choosing to sink to their leve.
The only thing I can remember with HK shares above $7 was to sell them as trading shares, (shares I had bought on a selloff to the mid $6's when Floyd appeared on cramer's mad money show, and I posted in real time as I was selling them in april 2013.
You common assertion that I bought at $13 etc is just another lie by you, typical of lower elements' FEEBLE attempt to divert from the truth a
"it looks as if it about to shoot higher 4.16 then 4.25"
THAT WOULD BE FINE WITH ME, I would love HK going higher.
I just don't agree with the unrealistic pumpers.
I hope you did not sell your AAL to buy HK.
I am long both, loving the AAL long position, the HK, well, not quite as much , lol
you said you are not taking sides but kissing up to people like frickinfrac and oilman, who are #$%$, you are in essence taking sides, keep that in mind.
No offense intended, you have never done me wrong, just giving that perspective.
why do you distort, which basically is a lie.
do you agree with jeff's analysis on revenue?
I feel sorry for you.
In fact, the things you accuse me of, YOU are the guilty party. You are pompous one.
Can't you behave well?
don't you realize that for all your screaming and foul mouthed blather, it is you and the other lower elements who show to all the world that you are just that, a lower element.
Oh sure you get your buddies and their aliases to high five you, but that does not change the truth.
You and they are misbehaving.
I encourage my followers to ignore people like you. and they do, oh yes they do.
evan, why do you lie?
I am not short, I own HK. I am not bashing. I encouraged jeff to speak with the company and with analysts to correct his error,
That is very different than your false claim
Why do you lie?
click ignore evan
darvon, I HOPE that the TMS proves to be a very successful play. I am a shareholder, I will benefit if the TMS proves to be a good play.
But I want the truth about things, not unrealistic extremes EITHER WAY , down or up.
Do you agree with Jeff's analysis or not?
Do you think that HK will have 2015 revenues (off a similar base that now exists) of $2 billion plus which would represent a 100 percent increase over 2013 revenues? or do you agree with me and all the analysts that it will be a materially lower figure?
Jeff. or should I call you jfSmart?
you glossed over the issue of your flawed analysis of revenue estimates. Yes, there are other metrics one can use, but growth in reve will coincide with growth in other metrics in this case. You said, "we're estimating" with the connotation that "heck we are just estimating". But then why not just estimate 10 billion revenue for 2015 or if one wanted to go the other way, one half Billion?
The point is that the estimate should try to get as close to the truth as possible , otherwise it is useless and potentially deceptive.
You have not addressed the flaws in your analysis even close to adequately.
First you used the wrong proform beginning figure.
Then you use the 60 % growth figure and extrapolate incorrectly to the next year.
Realize that the 60% figure was from the proforma figure of 24,898 boe/d NOT the actual reported figure of 33,329. So actual growth according to the company's guidance from 13 to 14 is only 20 %!!!!
If you use that figure for 2014 to 2015 yoy growth , you get a far different result than your 2 plus billion est
(all this based on a similar capital structuo\re, and capex, ie if HK raised more money from cap mkts from debt and equity and had big success in TMS so they could spend much larger amounts, ie get more rigs etc, then that could change, but the downside of more debt and dilution would act as an offest to the upside
Ask yourself why all the analysts on the street as well as non sell side disagree with you, and agree with me.
Keep in mind I am not bashing, I can see HK rising some based upon more realistic figures. I recently advised a short on the board to cover when the stock sold off to the 3.50's following the earnings report.
I welcome your participation on the board, but ask you to correct your errors. Talk to the company, talk to professionals, but please correct your glaring error.
I should add that even without doing the checking with bloomberg and the option mm sources, it was not too hard to decipher the trade. Obvious with the April $5 calls offered at 10 cents and the april $6 calls offered at 5 cents, there would be no reason for anyone to buy the higher strike calls for a higher price. They sold the april $7 calls to the market maker, for essentially zero,
Why do I say zero and not ten cents? Because the spread on the puts was $2.80 by $3.20, and they probably could have bought the puts for close to $3.10 without doing the other leg. The market maker who printed or reported the trade could have reported the prices as $3.12 for the puts and two cents for the calls or $3.11 for the puts and one cent for the calls, etc but either way the limit price for the combo would still have been $3.10 . If the trade was done nearer to the close With the stock closing a few pennies higher at $4.07, the puts were $2.80 by $3.10 and probably could have been bought alone for slightly less than the $3.10 offer.