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Halc Message Board

valueman60 116 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2014 11:46 AM Member since: Aug 19, 2000
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  • valueman60 by valueman60 Feb 14, 2014 7:29 AM Flag

    Note I was not doubting your or others attestation that HK might be buying ECA leases in the TMS. I said in my posts, "IF true"
    My point is , why is this good news? If true, it is questionable that it is good news , and certainly by any stretch of the imagination, it is not "great news".
    As the poster ,Margin points out, ECA is a very well run company, look at their balance sheet, billions in cash!! , with a positive Cash flow in the billions.
    HK would be buying their inferior acreage, while ECA keeps the sweeter spot and mind you , this in an unproven play and one with high costs (deja vu), and with the previous misteps by HK and the resultant damage to the balance sheet, and lack of funding situation, this only makes HK even more speculative , . as any further misteps and the danger of what the bashers claim , ie an ultimate bankruptcy becomes more real. Anyway you slice it, it would not be great news, it might be a sell on the news type of situation. If true, it scarily seems an act of desperation. Are insiders so realizing that their existing core is not good enough to make it with? I hope for the longs sake, that the TMS buy from ECA thing is not true, it is scary.
    But the increasing news likely indicates that it could very well be true.

  • If true, why would that be considered good news? Would it not be an admission by HK that their prized core leased areas are not going to be a winning combo?
    On top of that, since HK has to lower capex to fund 2014 recently, we know they have are slim in the funding dep't, and going into a new area that is UNPROVEN and known for high well costs seems hardly a slam dunk and risks more damage to the already ailing overleveraged balance sheet.
    Don't get sucked in by pumper's promising some great "big news". Just go back to the posts preceding EVERY past earnings report for HK and there was good ole oilman2345 leading the pumper's charge, promising great "big news" that was going to send HK to the moon. EVERY time when the earnings report was released, there was either no big news or the big news was not so good,
    how do you think we got where we are now?
    Don't take my word for it, just go back and look for yourself.

  • Reply to

    bakken worth a ton

    by tucker3210 Feb 13, 2014 7:22 PM
    valueman60 valueman60 Feb 13, 2014 7:36 PM Flag

    Tucker,
    HK has some very good leased acreage in the Bakken, but the part that is very good is a small fraction of their total Bakken holdings , the rest is mediocre and a large portion of it (especially what they got from Geo Resources) is of very poor quality. The part that HK has that is comparable to the deal you quoted is very small, and without knowing all the terms, ie the working interest , royalty payments, you are in the dark.
    ie HK's best acreage t they have a low WI , and high royalty payments equating to a low NRI.
    So the comparison you quote is not equitable.

  • Reply to

    Buy the Dip

    by fritzhoffman27 Feb 13, 2014 9:40 AM
    valueman60 valueman60 Feb 13, 2014 1:55 PM Flag

    Hi fritz, you said, 'Shorts all over HK this morning, down to 3.56. Now, stops taken out at 3.7401 and 3.7501. Will shorts continue to reload? Must be getting painful..."
    I am intrigued by statements like this.
    Can you tell the board now you know that it was naked shorting that drove the stock down rather than longs selling on the down opening in the market?

  • Reply to

    Tucker

    by valueman60 Feb 13, 2014 9:15 AM
    valueman60 valueman60 Feb 13, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    Tucker you said, regarding my what you described as my arrogance.
    I understand where you are coming from.
    But please understand that is not how it started. I did not start doing that until LONG after the constant completely unfair attacks and false accusations mounted to a huge level.
    I have resorted to that tactic in a response to that abuse. Months and months of abuse for no good reason, Only after enduring that did I humanly decide not to turn the other cheek. And what I have pushed back has been the slightest fraction of what I received.
    Can you understand that?

  • valueman60 by valueman60 Feb 13, 2014 9:15 AM Flag

    tucker,
    if you can find it in your heart , please leave my sweetheart out of your unfair and untrue attacks on me.
    Can you do that? Can you show that modest degree of decency and restraint?
    BTW, your claims about my position in the stock is wild speculation on your part. You have no idea when I have bought , and sold HK in the past, nor do you know what my current position is.
    Please be honest with yourself about it, and hopefully you can do the same for the board.
    Your false posts concerning me may get kudos from the riff raff lower elements but realize that when you sink to that level, it reflects poorly on you to those that matter, the honest, the intelligent , those who more often are quiet on the board, ie those who read but do not post that much.
    I have seen signs that you are better than the riff raff and I encourage you to emphasize your better characteristics and be one of the better posters on the board. You certainly have the potential and the ability, that I believe.
    Thank you for you consideration.

  • valueman60 by valueman60 Feb 13, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    I am not valuedigger.
    I am not saying that HK cannot go up
    I am hopeful that HK will have some good news to report on feb 26th.
    I am merely calling for the board to be balanced and fair in its approach.
    To accept truth, and reject falsehood from either extreme ie
    reject the extreme basher lies
    reject the extreme pumper lies and hype.

  • valueman60 by valueman60 Feb 12, 2014 8:34 PM Flag

    Hi to all the wonderful, kind and honorable people here.
    Hope you are well.
    I am feeling great.

    Oh, I received a short email today from a HK long, talking about getting that old sinking feeling today.
    Wonder what he was talking about?

  • valueman60 by valueman60 Feb 11, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    you have recently posted that I am valuedigger. You also stated that I am "ifollowvalueman", an id that was apparently just created
    You think you know the above?
    Well, I tell you in all soberness, you are not in possession of that knowledge.
    Secondly, for those followers of mine who have asked me if "they should defend me on this board" by posting or giving thumbs up or down, I have told them that intelligent and fairminded people do not care about that immature game. I don't play it, and while others are free to do what they wish, I am certainly not asking that anyone do that.
    Are you willing to consider taking a step back from this tug of war of angst that is present and asking yourself if maybe , just maybe it is the wrong course of action.
    I would vastly prefer the board be a polite and thorough forum to help one another. We should not make enemies of each other. We should help one another.

  • Reply to

    HK answer

    by sheep_herder_xl5 Feb 11, 2014 7:53 AM
    valueman60 valueman60 Feb 11, 2014 8:07 AM Flag

    thank you for proving my point further.
    Note their alleged answer said NOTHING about 2015. From the first I have said they have adequate liquidity to fund 2014 , but they will have to draw down their revolver and sell assets to fund 2014. That sets up EXACTLY the scenario I have described, that they will need to raise more capital to fund 2015. Note they did not say a word about 2015!
    And if they hope to "grow into our debt", then they will have to produce more and more, and that takes adequate spending in 2015, and they don't have the money to do that without somehow finding that from outside the company, so their only choices are more debt, more equity issuance, joint ventures of size, or selling off core areas in addition to selling non core areas, Which of those do you think they will choose?

  • valueman60 valueman60 Feb 11, 2014 8:06 AM Flag

    thank you for proving my point further.
    Note their alleged answer said NOTHING about 2015. From the first I have said they have adequate liquidity to fund 2014 , but they will have to draw down their revolver and sell assets to fund 2014. That sets up EXACTLY the scenario I have described, that they will need to raise more capital to fund 2015. Note they did not say a word about 2015!
    And if they hope to "grow into our debt", then they will have to produce more and more, and that takes adequate spending in 2015, and they don't have the money to do that without somehow finding that from outside the company, so their only choices are more debt, more equity issuance, joint ventures of size, or selling off core areas in addition to selling non core areas, Which of those do you think they will choose?

  • valueman60 by valueman60 Feb 10, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    First of all, my followers don't need Tucker as an intermediary, they contact me directly and frequently some (too frequent for my taste) on a different place than this board.
    But for the sake of the few who might still want to be real here, Tucker's questions are good. But they are intended to be entrapment questions because the answer is that 2015 capital expenses are not exactly known at this point. That is a good point, but it has limits. implication is that if you don't know everything about 2015 , you cannot make the projection I have made. that is not true.
    ie, Tucker is inferring that cap ex for 2015 could be cut with the implication that it might be able to be met without more debt or stock issuance. But with Floyd's own admission in the NAPE conference, that you have to keep spending to drill a lot just to maintain production , and spend and drill more to raise production in their shale assets, HK is stuck. Imagine what would happen if they spent less to the point that production actually fell. The stock would be under more pressure, and they would have a myriad of problems with their covenants etc. So they have to spend. The same is true if you go down the line on the rest of his questions. By any reasonable projection, there is only one conclusion , the one that I have given, that they will have to raise more capital to fund 2015 expenses etc.
    There is one possible very unlikely exception, it would be a bold move , and it is not clear that they could do it, but I am looking into it and may consider advising management to explore it.

    as far as the other posters claim that the my question would be sent to IR., HK will not comment on 2015 cap ex or capital raises for the sake of 2015 etc. Note that immediately before the most recent capital raises, they gave no warning etc.

  • valueman60 by valueman60 Feb 8, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    I want to thank the poster who published it here. I encourage all to read it completely and carefully.
    The article fully supports my view of HK.
    I expect HK to report improved production and reserves and details about their Bakken downspacing etc
    It will not be enough to move the needle in a huge way, as all the factors mentioned in the article along with other factors not mentioned outweigh such announcements.
    Some of these non article mentioned factors:are
    1. cash flow along with divestitures will not be enough to fully fund cap ex AND corporate expense through 2015 ( and likely beyond). As such HK will have to seek more capital raises which will involve the debt markets and likely equity markets. This means increased debt and likely further equity dilution.
    HK may try to blunt this sad fact by seeking more JV partners, but doing this has the attached reality of limting control of operations and potential gains, which obviously will act as a cap on the worth of the company, even if the JV are successful , which is not guaranteed.
    HK may double or better someday in its shareprice, but it is not going to be this year, and it is highly likely that it won't be in 2015 either.

  • Reply to

    My Analysis

    by vaiueman60 Feb 7, 2014 2:41 PM
    valueman60 valueman60 Feb 7, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    Ha ha,
    just shows that you and your ilk are "dumber than dirt"
    you did not see that post you attribute to me, is not me after all, but one of your own bunch who substitutes an i for and l and makes his own alias to imitate me,
    Just another sign that I am the best poster on this board, and I "own " you and your ilk as you show a form of hate worship
    Have a good weekend ,
    OPA

  • valueman60 valueman60 Feb 7, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    my posts, which are sound and based on fact, and are aligned with known principles of investing are attacked on this board. Fine, I get it, there are a lot of frustrated jealous people here.
    Rockymaster posts the above, " The door is wide open, price is being forced down for a reason, big boys are loading up on this one.
    Safest play on the street by far, Don't miss this its an easy double this year."
    WHICH IS ABSURD AND HAS NO BASIS IN FACT, NOR HE DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY SUPPORTING EVIDENCE.
    does he know what "big boys" are doing? no.
    how can he tell the price is being force down? he does not know
    "safest play on the street by far" he says, I don't have to even say anything about that one,

    you would think that such remarks would at least be questioned and deservedly doubted , attacked, something! but NO, just fine amongt the regulars here.
    Hmmmmm.......................................
    So you want to here it again,
    Here it is friends,
    "i am superior to you"
    If you knew who I am, you would BEG me for help and advice

  • Reply to

    HK 2020 Bond Price

    by mhrboardpolice Feb 7, 2014 6:24 AM
    valueman60 valueman60 Feb 7, 2014 7:45 AM Flag

    Below is a cut and paste of the post where you inferred that because the HK 2020 bonds were trading at 104, that shorts were in trouble and the stock was going to double "AT LEAST".

    2users liked this postsusers disliked this posts5Reply
    HK 2020 Bonds
    by mhrboardpolice • Feb 4, 2014 9:59 PM Flag
    Hk bonds are trading over 104! Until HK bonds trade under par the shorts are F'ed! Longs are going to double their money AT LEAST! I've got 40k shares @ 3.79/share! Suck it fools! The bond market is ALWAYS smarter than the stock market! DEAL WITH IT! All this info can be checked on the FINRA webpage. DEAL WITH IT YOU LOSERS!!!!!! Less
    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HK 2020 Bond Price

    by mhrboardpolice Feb 7, 2014 6:24 AM
    valueman60 valueman60 Feb 7, 2014 7:38 AM Flag

    mhr
    read my post again. I acknowledged that the july 2020 HK bonds were trading over par, but since they have a coupon of 9.75% versus the the may 2021 HK coupon rate of 8.875%, that just puts their effective yield at a similar level of the 2021 bonds. To demonstrate that I quoted the 2021 bonds data from date in question feb 4 , which were slightly under par. The two bond issues HK4001500 and HK4001501, have the same low quality junk rating of Caa1/CCC+ and the maturities only differ by about 10 months so the market prices them to have yields that are close in price. That was my point. The fact that the 2020's trade at 102-104 vs the 99-100 for the 2021's just means they are priced to yield aprox the same amount,of interest which is rational.
    I further agreed with you that since both issues were trading near par, that it signified that the market currently does not doubt HK's ability to pay the coupon.
    I merely stated that that because the market did not see any imminent danger of bankruptcy , it did not mean that your inference that the market believed HK common shares had to double or triple had any validity.
    are you mature enough to admit that you falsely accused me of lying or is the possibility of you doing the right thing not something you can countenance?

  • valueman60 by valueman60 Feb 6, 2014 2:30 PM Flag

    I am sorry I rub you the wrong way.
    I understand you are frustrated with the miserable performance of your own, of HK management of the stock.
    I am sorry that it irks you to no end that I am superior to you, in every way when it comes to equity investing/trading.
    I will tell you one aspect of my position. I don't feel the need as you apparently do, of giving people false hope that HK is going to double and triple overnight because of some "big news". That is one difference between you and I. I have some empathy for my fellow man, and don't want to stick them in a miserable position as you have shown OVER and OVER that you are willing to do.
    You have been wrong about more than your " entry points".
    The only high marks one can give you is for consistency. You have been consistently wrong and bullheaded.

  • Reply to

    Now posters are speaking about the TMS

    by valueman60 Feb 6, 2014 12:46 PM
    valueman60 valueman60 Feb 6, 2014 1:46 PM Flag

    evan
    sorry but you are so wrong.
    I have nothing against HK going higher. I welcome it, I am not short HK. and would love to ride it long.
    I expect they will color their report in a positive light. Except for Floyd's exasperated admission that the wells they drilled in north Utica were "sheety" , they always have attempted to describe their operations in a positive light. This report should be done in that manner as well. But is it enough to move the needle in a big way? of that there is considerable doubt.
    I hope that the mire they are in can be reversed.
    I made plenty of money investing in the old HK, petrhohawk and it is why I was attracted to Halcon.
    I have followed it from day one and learned that it is not the same animal as the old HK.
    I even hope Oilman2345 makes money on his long. And I will be happy to make money too.

  • Reply to

    Now posters are speaking about the TMS

    by valueman60 Feb 6, 2014 12:46 PM
    valueman60 valueman60 Feb 6, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    I ask you this oilman2345.
    how would you describe your track record on HK?
    how would rate it?
    , tell us how good or bad you have been on HK?

HK
5.335+0.125(+2.40%)3:18 PMEDT

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