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InterOil Corporation Message Board

valuesleuth 894 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 21, 2014 10:41 PM Member since: Mar 14, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Share buyback $50 Million

    by yellerlab Jul 21, 2014 10:17 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Jul 21, 2014 10:41 PM Flag

    The suspicious part of me says this announcement is a prelude to some potential bad news on the drilling front -- just to keep the stock from getting pounded.

    If something along those lines is afoot, at least the company will be buying "low", rather than "high."

    In PNG and with IOC nothing is as it seems.

    VS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    $400 pps

    by phildagrave Jul 21, 2014 2:48 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Jul 21, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    ms,

    It is quite amusing to observe what happens when 4 posters (Tree, STP, Palm, and the JFT Consortium) dominate the posting history with over 50% of the total posts, setting the rules for everyone else, and exempting themselves by playing to a different set of rules -- those of dictators.

    They righteously pontificate and rail against whining -- while whining themselves to denigrate those who chafe at the selective application of the rules.

    What isn't acknowledged is that JFT has gotten away with personal attacks from Day One -- and SHU is the ONLY PLACE he can do that. Most everybody, absent the 4 horsemen, knows it and doesn't like it. Given their mutual love, there is no way anyone would have the guts to discipline the REAL rule breaking perpetrators.

    So, the soap opera continues -- and SHU immolates itself with indictments and recriminations.

    VS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    More from Indoreservoir/ Anger

    by mspieks Jul 9, 2014 10:00 AM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Jul 10, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    ms,

    On the "safety" comment by MH:

    It has been my conclusion that MH blew it when he didn't specifically state, and keep stating, what was the REAL CAUSE of the "safety" issue reference to the reason for the drilling delays. He had alluded to it in previous comments, but made the mistake of assuming that prior listeners had properly noted the comment and didn't repeat it in each subsequent comment on the drilling progress.

    The REAL ISSUE is dealing with the EXTREMELY HIGH PRESSURES being encountered, which if not dealt with could well cause massive safety problems for the drilling crews and drilling infrastructure.

    High pressures are good in the right context -- IF they can be controlled in the drilling process.

    BTW, couldn't help myself this morning. Sold some Sept $50 puts.

    VS

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    SHU's Indoreservoir

    by mspieks Jul 8, 2014 4:18 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Jul 8, 2014 8:53 PM Flag

    ms,

    If you believe the PR's assertion that the offer was "unsolicited", why turn down a reasonable bid?

    The financials are going to be very screwy for quite a while, which will introduce some fodder for those who would like something resembling an operating company, but might present opportunities for traders. Investors, on the other hand, are going to have a real problem with the inevitable volatility in the stock price -- especially if all does not go well with the drill bit.

    Given that the current 3 wells were rushed to spud -- to meet deadlines for lease renewals -- why would anyone actually believe the 90 day pronouncements -- especially taking into account carnival barker PM's statements that "everything takes twice normal time in PNG?"

    MH is a weird combination of what could be considered self-serving boasting on the one hand and the preaching of lowered expectations and restraint on the other. Hard to read at any point in time -- especially with the news flow controls now in place. (This has got to drive the SHU folks crazy -- even if "calling Wayne" wasn't really worth anything other than a placebo treatment.)

    It is going to be a long, hard slog to get to financial paradise with IOC.

    Best to be a vulture trader now.

    VS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • valuesleuth valuesleuth Jul 7, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    Bonk,

    It is pretty clear that the $500 million valuation that the brokerage houses have had on the refinery and downstream operations over the years has been a GROSS valuation, not net of debt -- whatever that would be at any point in time.

    Clearing out the distraction is a good thing, but not worthy of much real excitement over some big score on valuation.

    Meanwhile, we await some drilling results.

    VS

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Pre AGM SHU MTG

    by mspieks Jun 23, 2014 9:42 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Jun 24, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    raise,

    Eric Sussman was right there, too, in his assessment that management was a disaster.

    For a long time, I didn't agree with him about management (went to too many AGMs and bought the koolaid), but he was right -- in spades -- along with bonk.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Wayne IS Gone

    by mspieks Jun 24, 2014 9:15 AM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Jun 24, 2014 1:25 PM Flag

    ms,

    Looking at IOC as a Singapore HQ'd company, with all operations in SE Asia, it was increasingly ludicrous to have the VP Capital Markets permanently located in Florida.

    It seems as if Wayne likely got the same treatment as Colin Visaggio -- "we want our own team."

    He was a nice guy, but carried too much water for a "failed regime" in the new IOC environment.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Sunglass reflections

    by bonkthegrups Jun 16, 2014 5:41 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Jun 16, 2014 7:09 PM Flag

    bonk,

    That whole thread is a perfect confirmation on how far the usual suspects will go to put a fanciful spin on speculations. When the juices get flowing, there's no stopping them.

    If it is true that IOC monitors SHU, what kind of reception are these folks likely to get at the upcoming AGM?

    Given what we've seen out of Dr. Hession so far, it seems a bit of a stretch to think that he'd want to put any fuel on the kinds of bonfires these folks start.

    Will the new management team be meeting at "21" with refugees from the Spinnaker Lounge?

    Not likely.

    A waste of a trip to NYC.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    "One in Ten"

    by mspieks Jun 11, 2014 11:53 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Jun 12, 2014 7:42 PM Flag

    ms,

    You'd think with all the members of the JFT & Alias Consortium collaborating, they could figure some things out. But, alas, you'd be wrong.

    One thing from the article that jumped out at me was that Shell apparently made the last cut and were in the mix until the very end. Hadn't at least one member of the Consortium declared them dead and gone a LONG time ago?

    The more things change, the more they seem the same, with our resident source gadfly, who always seems to get it bolloxed up, even on his best days.

    Meanwhile we wait for actual news.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    JDEO and his epithany. LOL

    by mspieks Jun 4, 2014 1:02 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Jun 7, 2014 3:32 PM Flag

    For the last 10 days, I haven't even been lurking on any of the boards, as out-of-town matters have consumed my presence, time and full attention.

    Having said that, I've been holding, adding on weakness, selling puts, buying calls.

    Now that I'm back for a while, I'll catch up on the threads, starting with this very amusing one.

    BTW, what is this SHU to which posters refer? LOL

    Connect the dots,

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The $0.80 fallacy

    by bonkthegrups May 16, 2014 1:54 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth May 17, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Wrong you are!

    1) The 22.5% government buy-in for cost wasn't IOC's to sell.
    2) The 17+% (net of the gov't. buy-in) wasn't IOC's to sell, as Mulacek had previously sold that cheap.

    What Hession sold was effectively in the low 30%s (net of the gov't. buy-in), for an amount of money that accomplished a lot, albeit at a price that was, ahem, somewhat below what the fantasists had conjured up.

    .....and IOC retained ownership in the high 20%s (net of the gov't buy-in) for likely enough cash to pay for a lot of drilling and to provide the required equity contribution for their share of the LNG plant costs.

    As Bonk said, it was a good deal for IOC, which wasn't really dealing from a position of much strength.

    Now, IOC is in a much better position to wheel and deal on future discoveries.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The JVOA and IOC's ownership of the LNG project

    by mspieks May 17, 2014 1:32 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth May 17, 2014 3:34 PM Flag

    JFT & Alias Consortium,

    Of course, you are deluded once again and can't offer any proof of your contentions, as always.

    Why should it be any different this time?

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The $0.80 fallacy

    by bonkthegrups May 16, 2014 1:54 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth May 17, 2014 3:28 PM Flag

    Bonk,

    You're right. "It's a good deal with a good partner."

    It recapitalizes the company, retains 30% of the key asset, and effectively un-strands the jungle gas.

    All of this needed to be done.

    Despite repeated promises from the Mulacek group, it wasn't accomplished until the BOD finally came to the conclusion that a change of leadership and approach was needed.

    Then, it got done by someone who was the anti-impediment.

    Now, IOC has a much more interesting future -- without all the incessant pie-in-the-sky nonsense inspired by the carnival barker.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The $0.80 fallacy

    by bonkthegrups May 16, 2014 1:54 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth May 17, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    JFT & Alias Consortium,

    Not hardly. Point out a single "fact" in Bonk's post that he has "made negative." Reality sometimes is tough to take -- especially for uber fantasists.

    .....and you do what?

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • valuesleuth valuesleuth May 10, 2014 6:30 PM Flag

    ms,

    We must all remember that the three (3) exploratory wells are being drilled with a primary purpose in fulfilling mandatory work programs. They carry exploratory risk and are more likely than not to be of modest success, hopefully better than the initial wells on Elk and Triceratops. If they hit a lot of resource, it will be a bonus.

    Speaking of Triceratops, notice how very little is said about it anymore. The drilling results have been lousy and the latest seismic on the portion carrying over to the adjacent PPL was underwhelming -- another bust.

    IOC is definitely a "show me" stock.

    With all the drilling, let's hope there's a lot to eventually show -- and that the 2 or 3 confirmation wells on E/A confirm gas volume on the high side of the estimate range.

    Meanwhile, there's silence from the company.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hession rates a B+

    by mspieks Apr 9, 2014 12:06 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Apr 9, 2014 3:31 PM Flag

    ms,

    Putting aside price considerations of the Antelope Deep deal, Hession only "gave away" 31.77% of it -- just the portion that will eventually be held by TOT. The rest of it, IOC didn't control -- the OSH portion, the to-be PNG gov't portion.

    Remember, IOC retains a substantial portion which will be hugely profitable -- IF any gas is there.

    VS

  • Reply to

    What a change

    by raiseyou33 Mar 26, 2014 11:10 AM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Mar 26, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    Refreshing, isn't it?

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • valuesleuth by valuesleuth Mar 25, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    Based on absolute and relative implied volatilities (option premiums), there's not a lot of optimism out there on IOC.

    It is a sellers' market for puts, with put buyers willing to pay relatively large prices for protection. Put sellers (insurance providers) are collecting LARGE premiums.

    One the other side, those willing to go long calls are getting bargains, with the pessimism on IOC's prospects being reflected in low call premiums -- writers willing to sell cheap.

    Rarely has the set-up shown such a great disparity between the relative put-call price premiums.

    Things are ripe for a grand surprise with so much relative negativity evident.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone think this is the top for the year?

    by jill_w_ioc Mar 20, 2014 3:43 PM
    valuesleuth valuesleuth Mar 20, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    jdeo,

    Rarely, except 2 of the last 3, although the parties didn't last very long thereafter.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • OilSearch (OSH) has a 6 month exclusive option to negotiate with PacLNG for its' 13.424% interest in PPLs 474, 476, and 477 and its' 11.0423% interest in PRL39 and PPL475.

    PRE holds a 12.9% interest in PRL39 and PPL475 and has indicated one way or another a desire to exit.

    The PacLNG holding sizes are quite small relative to the typical OSH holding levels.

    However, if the PRE holdings are added to the PacLNG holdings in PRL39 and PPL475, the combined holdings woud be 23.9423% before the 22.5% PNG government interest and 18.555% after the PNG government opts in. That is a nice sized holding consistent with OSH's hodings in PRL15 (E/A).

    How long will it be before OSH makes a run on PRE's holdings and takes over the drilling commitments with their own rigs?

    Seems like a win-win-win.

    VS

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

IOC
56.24+0.80(+1.44%)Jul 29 4:02 PMEDT

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