At least we are largely rid of the uber pumpers who would "hear" things in their dreams and try to foist the nonsense on the group which became to be called "moderates" -- those who were open to alternative interpretations.
They had their short-term predictions (and financial #$%$) handed to them so many times, their sheeple followers dropped away one by one and they retreated to the safety of the former no-whining pen called SHU.
Even SHU seems now to have some balance, since it isn't any longer being fed by the IOC employee enablers who have been sent packing cutting off the flow of bogus information.
I like the silence between official reports.
From reading the published material, it seems clear that what is likely to be found a Wahoo is a candidate for the ExxonMobil trains, especially if the Total LNG plant is built in the Gulf Province.
I believe it was in Lawrie Brown's comments from the transcript of the CC, if not in other places.
“It’s not what you don’t know that gets you in trouble but what you know for certain that just ain’t true.” -- Mark Twain
You say the "PPS won't stay in the $40s forever."
It'll see the $30s in the near future, just on the "sagging pork formation" momentum now in place.
If there is any not-so-good news that comes out, a price very near $30 is readily achievable. (The news doesn't even have to be specific to IOC.)
It is not a time to be irrationally exuberant -- with the market, the oil/gas sector, and CERTAINLY not with IOC in particular. Batten down the hatches.
Connect the dots.
PS On severe weakness, I'll be looking to repurchase the 33% of IOC holdings sold on 2/26/15 at $46.22
With TOT now the Operator of the PRL 15 JV, we now have a Super Major in charge.
Can we expect improvement in the communication of drilling status?
......or is PRL 15 simply too small to warrant disclosure every time a wrench is turned?
I explained it badly. Let's use dates, as you have done.
What I was trying to say is that the volume on each of the 25th, 26th, and 27th (down days) was greater than the volume on each of the 20th, 23rd, and 24th, the first two of which were up days and the last of which was a down day.
The net result is that we have a "sagging pork" formation in the making -- CERTAINLY NOT indicative of support for the rumors. In addition, the option action totally fails to support the validity of the rumors.
Any kind of takeover rumor with legs should be supported by UPWARD PRICE MOVEMENT and VOLUME.
.....unless it is really a TAKE-UNDER. LOL
I place ZERO credence to the rumor.
The last 3 days of trading action have produced a declining stock price on each day's volume higher than the volume of any of the prior 3 days.
In addition, there is no ("zero") option action. In general, the option activity is really, really quiet -- leading to the conclusion there are not a lot of trading strategies being carried out on IOC.
Thus, it appears there's no trading response to the rumor.
mike and ms,
I'm in virtually total agreement with your composite lists -- especially the "Sell the company to the highest bidder" one.
Waiting around to achieve $250/share by 2022 gets you a compound gain of about 20% per annum.
That's no big deal for all the grief and execution risk.
TIME is MONEY.
Thanks for the suggestion and the continuing research inputs.
This stock is quite a trading vehicle, with which option plays can be a great supplement to just owning the stock. Option premiums (IV -- implied volatility) are quite high, although they've recently come down from over 200 prior to the most recent trial developments.
Buy stock, sell covered calls, sell puts -- take your pick!
I doubt if TOT would be buying IOC for what is at PRL 15. They already own the appropriate level of that part of IOC. (After all, their deal with IOC originally envisioned selling off quite a bit of the 60% they'd be buying from IOC, including IOC's buyout of PAC LNG interests.)
TOT would be targeting IOC's 60% +/- of EVERYTHING ELSE. That would require some information on resources discovered by the drilling program being carried out by IOC outside of PRL 15.
If they decided to buy the company, they'd eventually sell off half of what they picked up -- to set their level at about 30% to 35% of all the resource -- bringing in development dollar$ and laying off risk, typical of big LNG projects.
First of all, I believe TOT will win the arbitration, which may well be bad news -- the worst of which could be a delay in the LNG plant given TOT's capital spending constraints recently imposed.
Secondly, I don't subscribe to the short pounding thesis, absent oil getting pounded into the $30s, although the perfect Fibonacci picture for IOC would be a final decline to about $30.
Any potential decline and/or arbitration decision would be trumped by drilling results and/or the reporting of YE 2014 resources, which might well confirm a monster pending cash payday. Given what we now think we know, I characterize the payday for E/A alone as likely to be $25/share +/- $12 per share. Anything above the mid-point will make IOC a RAGING, JUMPING SCREAMING BUY. Think classic Ben Graham analysis with cash being a very large percentage of stock value.
Summing it up, I'd like to propose a gentleman's bet. IOC is currently trading at $44. Will IOC hit $34 before it hits $54?
I'll take the $54.
Connect the dots.