Down to defeat go PM and his hand-picked IOC shareholder saviors.
......and the SHU boys go "....but, but, but........."
Was it the message or the messenger?
Given that there are no better bids on the table, when are certain people going to concede that the current deal is the best that could be obtained given ALL the present circumstances of IOC's position?
raiseyou & spieks,
I agree with the both of you.
The gauge of how badly IOC shareholders got screwed, if at all, will be to listen to the crowing, if any, about the economics of future PNG LNG trains, assuming consolidation of all the assets and interests of TOT, XOM, OSH et al in PNG LNG.
Since the LNG economics are currently atrocious and the proposed TOT project has just about the best around, there might well be a lot of industry talk over the next 5-6 years on the wonderfulness of this amalgamation.
Mercifully, we can all move on.
If Phil had cut a deal waaaayyyyy back when oil was over $100 per bbl. etc and he was offered big bucks (per mspieks sources)., the current corner wouldn't have existed, Phil would have been a hero to shareholders, and all the SHU boys would have been happy.
The point is that Phil was the original screwer of IOC shareholders and it is SUPREME FOLLY to buy into his BS a second time.
How noble of Phil.
Phil is the guy who had a ridiculously inflated opinion of IOC's value and wouldn't make rational deals (see various mspieks posts on the subject), which is why IOC is backed into its latest corner.
It is supremely naive to think PM will be the person to get a better deal.
He's disrespected by virtually EVERYONE in the industry and certainly the PNG government. They can wait him out if necessary and get an even cheaper price.
Good luck with that.
Phil always wants to run the show and controlling the BOD would do the trick. The carnival barker has you hooked with his BS. Will you never learn?
It is only rape if the adult owners don't consent.
Is it possible the owners think it is a good deal -- ALL THINGS considered?
Is it possible the issue has NOTHING to do with PR?
Needless to say, I agree with your thought that it is already over and stated so long ago in my "over before it began" post.
That's the game plan I've been intending to follow -- unless the CVR speculation gets out of hand.
Unless the doubters of the size of the E/A (PRL 15) resource have been right all along, there might be a handsome payoff.
Those who don't like the proposed OSH/TOT deal think they should have an up front guarantee on a 50% or so higher value -- without having to follow the process that has been in place from the original TOT deal.
You've got a very sensible position.
Unfortunately, the word "sensible" is not in the dictionary of the self-deluded folks who, against all rational analysis and thought, continue to chase the IOC dream and its principal, now resurrected, carnival barker merchant of spin, PM.
Nor should the term "sensible" be applied to the vast majority of SHU denizens, who have an aversion to "getting it."
It seems notable that Phil Mulacek (AKA PIE) has not received public backing from any material number of his former "friends" in the industry, initial financial backers, the Civelli interests (who still have significant holdings), PM's hand-picked former IOC Board members (notably Galen Byker), and most notably institutional investors/analysts/governance experts.
They know better than to support his latest pipe dream of regaining control of his baby -- and regaining The Mulacek Discount, essentially re-stranding IOC's resources to be re-controlled by someone "nobody" (PNG government and/or O&G gas industry entities) wants to deal with. Been there, done that.
Many of us hoped that IOC would be put in play to obtain a full market price. That's effectively what happened. No competing bids have come forward.
End of story.
If you were representing American Funds, would you rather own IOC shares or OSH shares.
Think carefully before answering.
I thought so.
It is a gift horse.
Interoil shareholders have always suffered from the delusion that they are in charge of Interoil's future. Not so.
The PNG government cut them off at the pass many times in trying to maximize the value of their STRANDED RESOURCES.
In addition, the oil majors were the only entities that could bring off a multi-train, multi-billion$ project. Another obstacle IOC couldn't overcome without an IN CHARGE partner.
Now, Interoil finds itself boxed in yet again. TOT could very well squeeze the life out of them, effectively forcing them into the arms of a PNG gov't backed entity -- namely Oil Search.
Delusion by Interoil (and especially PM over many years). Brilliance by all the IOC competitors who got the assets -- CHEAP.
Interoil shareholders should be gratified at what they'll hold (OSH shares or cash) and the potential for future upside allied with an entity that can squeeze them no more, as it owns 29% of everything LNG in PNG.
Interoil shareholders never could over overcome their FATAL SELF-DELUSION.
PS I was a deluded Interoil shareholder, too.
Which INSTITUTIONAL owners will vote against this deal?
This deal is a gift horse to each of them -- a very viable exit strategy for at least a 50% relatively quick gain in a lousy market.
With OSH projected to have 29% interest in both PNG LNG and Papua LNG, isn't it obvious that the two projects will be merged to form a strong project between XOM and TOT with OSH along for a very lucrative ride?
The evolution here is a perfect example how the oil majors gobble up stranded assets like those of Interoil. In this case, the acquired resources are VERY cheap and quite easy to develop given all the PNG infrastructure already in place.
As usual, the SHU mob (and PM) can flail about and flap their gums to no avail.
PM was deposed by his own hand-picked BOD for reasons well-known and debated ad nauseum.
PM hasn't changed his spots.
Is it likely PM will get support to return a failed regime to power to reinstall the same leadership problems? (Hint: IMO, no)
Remember that PM was effectively detested by the PNG government which continues to hold all the cards. The bogus debate about Board size, executive compensation, etc. is just a petty diversionary smoke screen conjured up by a disgruntled former employee.
The "non-contest" is already over -- overwhelmingly.
If Phil's "blown deals" were blown because he wouldn't be reasonable on price, then Phil's interests are NOT aligned with shareholders.
So, include "non-alignment with the interests of shareholders" to the list of Phil's negatives.
Phil even tried to rip off his partners in the refinery transaction which essentially formed InterOil.
He's quite a guy -- and not anybody I want involved in any way with the governance and/or management (executive, Board) of IOC.
In addition, while it might stick in shareholders' craws about his change of control compensation, there is NOTHING out of the ordinary about it. In fact, I want Interoil sold -- NOW. Paying the Chief Exectuive a bonus of a mere $.67/share is a pittance.
Also, shrinking the Board is a bad idea. Why? Because it is highly likely that the independence of the Board would be reduced, not increased by such an action. If Hession, or any CEO were on a reduced count Board, the independence would go down.
And the saving of money. Ridiculous argument.
When Phil was sent packing, all or most of Phil's big iron toys were sent to the auction block. So, Hession is no spend thrift, unlike Phil who was going to take over the world.
Let's be real, here.
The idea that PM can gain backing for reasserting authority over IOC is a non-starter -- unless, of course, SAC would fall for complete BS.
Given his past history with IOC, how can anyone seriously believe that he'd do better than MH in the current industry environment?
Given that IOC is basically on the drilling sidelines and it's principal asset managed by TOT, what is in it for IOC's shareholders?
Or, will the carnival barker be able to levitate IOC's share price as if oil were over $100 per bbl. and LNG were selling for $14 per mcf?