well when someone buys a call option they are betting on a stock moving up through the strike price.This can be done with less capital than actually buying the stock and therefore gives a person more upside .However you must be correct in the timing and extent of the move to make any money.All I am saying is that when you see out of the money call options trade unusually large volume you need to know that someone is looking for a strong move and many times has info that you and I do not.Over the years many takeovers or earnings beats have been forecasted ahead of time by this type of buying and over the years many people have been caught and convicted of insider trading doing this.Years ago the Sec questioned me as to why I bought Charter One Financial just days before it as bought out.I had noticed unusually large volume in the out of the money calls and personally had no inside info but bought on that data.A year later two people were convicted of buying calls in advance on insider info.
no one else will make an offer as almost no one goes hostile in bank mergers.I will step out on a limb and say at the current price this is a buy as Key looks to be on the cheap side here.As you said get the divy and if key just trades back to 14.5 you got a decent return
Divy now safer and AF just got pushed by Basswood so we must assume that Basswood agreed and are smart enough to know stock would fall.NYCB did not have a lot of time possibly because AF just announced the hiring of Sandler.I believe the regulators said if u want AF u need to cut divy until rules r changed and you build up some cash then u can lift it.Also if Basswood stays and the fact that it is all stock to AF mgt. then it is probably understood that NYB is building up to sell itself. Fic is not getting any younger
probably could have got 22 now without doing all this garbage and waiting 2 yrs.But of course 2 more yrs is about 8 mil in Joeys paycheck
this may be good long term but Ficalora did make it sound like any deal would leave the divy intact.If we get 20 pct accretion way out in 17 under current conditions what r we looking at maybe 1.30 in earnings....Wow...Joey F better elude to raising that divy out in the future as soon as he can