Advance Auto Parts Inc. Message Board

Cook out.

Panic selling tomorrow on red tonight. It will be interesting to see where it goes - 10% from a panic isn't out of the question.

My bad, looks like it will be red tonight.

I agree, you may have to wait for the run up but when it happens it'll zoom. The bottom should be near the current price.

Vectorvest says CF should be $100 higher than it is currently priced.
- Value: Value is a measure of a stock's current worth. CF has a current Value of $277.74 per share. Therefore, it is undervalued compared to its Price of $178.14 per share.
- RV (Relative Value): RV is an indicator of long-term price appreciation potential. CF has an RV of 1.35, which is very good on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00.

I just read this. Yes, the share price is awfully low but the stock has a history of climbing rapidly out of these declines. Unless something radical has changed in the industry, the stock should be mid-$220's right now. When CF starts to move up it will overshoot the mark, so if you just bought (which unfortunately I did not) then you could be in for a big gain.

AAPL needs to go ahead & hit $390 to exercise that demon which will allow for a meaningful rebound. I know longs don't want to "lose" another $20, but technically it seems like it would be better in the medium term to get this out of the way.

Also, if you look back at natural gas prices for the last three years, the current price is actually lower now ($5-$6 vs. $4). As far as corn is concerned, all contract months are showing a price increase over the past couple of weeks.
The current price action is probably noise. CF often experiences declines of this magnitude before rebounding. The stock very strongly adheres to a long-term regression line that would put the stock at $226 today. At some point CF will rebound above the regression line by the same amount (area under the line.)

CF already locked in natural gas at a lower price, so that should be a non-factor.

This is the next domino falling. Gartner just issued a report stating that Microsoft could be extinct in four years, is AT&T - I mean Apple - next?

This is normal for the stock. Go back three years & draw a channel, you'll see that CF hits the bottom of the channel (about where it is) before shooting back up. The long term trend is up & very strong. Regression to the mean established during this period would take the stock back to $228, but CF (as with most stocks) always overshoots, so you could see $270 before the stock is a short candidate.

I could see a head & shoulders, but the pattern is kind of weak & short term. Actually looks like a bull flag from August until today making the flag with a $40 pole that started in May. A breakout from the flag would take CF up to $270.
The medium & long term trend lines are nearly identical & show a steady move up. Stock regress to the mean unless there's something to interrupt the pattern, which in the case of CF, with record corn plantings & more farmers going to corn on corn plantings doesn't indicate any interruption.