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vcaritas 62 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2016 12:15 PM Member since: Sep 21, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Key reversal today

    by skibickifinancial Jan 20, 2016 10:39 PM
    vcaritas vcaritas Jan 22, 2016 12:15 PM Flag

    Hammerly (sorta) candle developing on the weekly for GDX GDXJ (and triple long NUGT JNUG).

    Ditto CDE. NEEDS confirmation with good volume upmove.

    Have not yet added to CDE in the 1's. Have been trading energies and some foreign companies. Many burnt candles at the moment as folks sold INTO today's upmove, close to resistance areas, awaiting next week's developments. Some high quality beaten down energies and related .... ditto some other sectors/industries.

    DID add again today to NUGT. Tiny amount to re-accumulate.

    Profit for Good Causes

  • Reply to

    Key reversal today

    by skibickifinancial Jan 20, 2016 10:39 PM
    vcaritas vcaritas Jan 21, 2016 8:48 AM Flag

    Touched lower downtrend line (near term) and overdue for solid bounce, imo.

    Some gold and silver miners have retested previous lows...may also be ready to bounce, at the LEAST. Sentiment is now so negative few will believe it when key reversal really DOES occur.

    Personally expected a deep correction after previous highs in metals, but certainly not this deep, nor so prolonged. At the moment, no dry powder to add here, tho will probably trade NUGT or JNUG when I take partial profits from some other position, and would certainly consider adding to some individual miners. Need to see some solid upside volume here in CDE after this ultimate dastardly trashing....gasp...a few long shares here.

    Some miners will be multi-multi-multi-baggers eventually, imo.

    Some folks will buy the leaders. Others may choose oversold and beaten down 'losers'...or a mix. Continue to study miners to find the best mix when/IF long positions show extremely HIGH probability of upmove. NOW?!!! Gittin' close?

    LOTTA hammers and retesting lows out there fer da miners. 'Feels' bullish to me, tho I've been a bull all the way down, attempting to trade bounces whenever possible. Even the level-headed Jim Wyckoff has a tad bullish comment on his charts (Wednesday) for gold...see Kitco website. If this week (or very soon) is not bottom week for precious metals,
    it's at the least worth lookin' at fer bounce trades. I'm leaning toward expectation of a more sustained upmove for precious metals, at this point. Avi Gilbert was expecting another leg down for miners based on his Elliott Wave insights. Seems to me that has OCCURRED. Seems to me he was execting lower gold before a reversal, and I don't believe HIS target was met, tho I don't remember the precise area he was awaitin'...

    Continuing to expand my tiny stable of gold n silver n other miners and (tho I sold some NUGT and JNUG into the most recent upmove, I did already start adding to NUGT on the pullback.

    ONLY my opinion.


  • Reply to

    OT: looking for new ideas

    by konnikov Dec 9, 2015 11:11 AM
    vcaritas vcaritas Dec 10, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    How kind you are, SirKonnikov !!! We are all grateful for your insights re options methodology...

    and for you sincerity and jes plain wholesome attitude.

    Peace n Agape n All Good Stuff~

  • Not trading either long or short any commodity at the moment. Instead, trading 'around' nuggets of metals and energies (equity markets), along with some biotechs and niche positions.


    Peace Energy Agape~

  • Reply to

    OT: looking for new ideas

    by konnikov Dec 9, 2015 11:11 AM
    vcaritas vcaritas Dec 10, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    Follow up post:

    KMI continued higher today, tho the question regarded trading (options or shares)...from what I understand. Some pipeline and o&g related had huge moves yesterday or for several days and have some pullback, tho all the major strong pipeline stocks that I'm following are up from recent 'crash' lows. Many pipelines FALLING at this point from initial upmove, tho still off lows.

    GASL made apx 4% move before pulling back some up about 3.53%.


    EXXI +4.2%

    GDP +5.7% thus far

    SFY was up 20% and retested (yesterday), now very slightly green.

    NOG green by 2.4% (tho I have not done much trading there so some shares slightly under water).

    PQ made an intraday move of 20% recently...did not mention it and not in ... just a heads up for testing what is going on in o&g.

    NMM +9.45% (ocean shipping related...Navios)

    GNK minus a penny, SEA (an ocean shipping ETF) down 4 cents.

    In metals and other commodities:


    AA CENX appear to be attempting an upmove.]

    Precious metals: AU +9% thus far.

    NEM continuation pattern out of which it may bounce of fall. (Fedspeak might be priced in ???)

    ABX AU and up alphabet with many with massive possible bottoming pattern.

    Uranium: CCJ UUUU many others green at this point, and absurdly oversold. I have a handful, but not yet back in CCJ.

    NOT a rec. ONLY some ideas in response to a question. ONLY my opinion.

    Profit for Good Causes

  • Reply to

    OT: looking for new ideas

    by konnikov Dec 9, 2015 11:11 AM
    vcaritas vcaritas Dec 9, 2015 12:12 PM Flag

    Sold SBLK into today's bounce due to possible r/s.

    Holding 'bookmark' quantity GNK NMM.

    Watch for stocks (pipeline/MLPs/ocean shipping, etc.) that have ALREADY reduced or cancelled dividend and have crashed, along with those with great strength in any sector.

    Media tends to give confusing or negative info even as some sectors begin to turn around. By that time, the leaders may have moved up 50% or more. jmo

    Another example: CCJ may have bottomed, and could be multibagger due to China/India/Middle Easter/Europe/elsewhere reactors planned and in progress and needing uranium. Japan restarts have been occurring. Meanwhile, URPTF shows improvement in spot uranium. (Also see futures trading for uranium and various mining websites that show the delayed price and charts). See also thorium. Reactors can now be made with superb safety and almost all radioactivity can now be depleted before storing waste. See 4th generation reactors, thorium concepts, etc.

    Profit for Good Causes

  • Reply to

    OT: looking for new ideas

    by konnikov Dec 9, 2015 11:11 AM
    vcaritas vcaritas Dec 9, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    Pipelines crashed recently, KMI yesterday, and have had 7% to 14% upmoves today.

    KMI touched 14's in after hours trading yesterday and reached 17.35 intraday.

    Some of the pipelines MLPs, etc. are more dangerous than others. Watch for dividend cuts or LIKELIHOOD of dividend cut...or for massive crashing for short term trades or possible long positions.

    Why do you trade GDX instead of triple long NUGT JNUG etc. Massive potentially bullish formations in some of the metals. See JJC and COPX (copper). Copper and aluminum may have FINALLY bottomed. (AA CENX).

    Also 'W' and hns bottoming in some metals. NEM had a huge move yesterday and pays a dividend.

    Also DGAZ UGAZ instead of UNG...

    GASL sometimes has 12% bounce intraday. (triple long FCS).

    Plus huge volatility upside / downside in small energies like EXXI GST GDP (latter has not moved much yet, but may have bottomed and will likely survive due to measures it has taken). GDP was up a few cents yesterday, but it was an intraday upmove 20%. Now continuing, pending tomorrow's report, imo. SFY may bounce soon, but all of the small energies are dangerous for at least reverse split, delisting or worse. GST was up 15% today. I use 'minute' and 'hour' charts for some bounces, along with a look at the daily/weekly/monthly.

    Ocean shipping bounces are huge, but these are also treacherous and need to be sold until bottom is clear AND the reasonable health of the shipper is confirmed. Have 'bookmark' quantities of GNK SBLK and a few others and plan to trade a bounce.

    There are also double and triple long/short volatility indices, which I trade. (TVIX UVXY etc.), which I trade for SHORT TECHNICAL moves.

    'January effect' (which may be occuring ALREADY NOW in DECEMBER) should bounce some 'unloved' stocks that were sold off as tax loss, including some tiny movers that may double or triple or more, in time...OR have short term high percentage gains.

    For lists of stocks in each sector, see Yahoo and barchart. jmo

  • and nice configuration in progress, imo.

    NOT overweight CDE, tho if this progress continues, I may consider overweighting for at least a trade at some point. Some other larger, mid-tier and junior miners also look enticing to me based on oversold and undervalued status IF GOLD/SILVER reverse to upside and hold that pattern.

    NOT A REC. I shift rapidly if trades movs against me.

    See recent articles by Clive Maund mentioning COTs.

    Also note comments by Kira at Kitco re crude.

    On the GSS Yahoo message board, a poster named 'studebaker' sometimes quotes articles re gold, mining, currencies, etc. that I find worthwhile.

    All always ONLY my opinion.

    Love of Life, Liberty, and Respect for the Human Person

  • Now that the 'wolf' manipulators have taken shares from the 'sheeple'...

    those wolves are salivating for long shares,

    or for high percentage gains from the massive bottoming processes.

    Personally, I'm seeking potential 'gems' and hoping to trade 'around' them,
    since our family simply does not have the cash to hold long shares for all the gems I
    discover, nor are we able to hold physical gold/silver/plat/palladium/etc.

    So kind traders and friends have offered me ways to learn an additional 'profession' (tho I'm not a pro trader, least certainly not YET), and I'm finding ways to both earn and own by trading 'additonal shares' or through other means using technicals for long term gainers.

    NOT impossible for the miners and/or gold/crude/whatever to have another leg DOWN, but today's move was certainly a sign that miners are not 'dead' (as the basher/trasher class would have you believe).

    NOTE: XOM CVX some other energies green. Some energies, alt energies, and RELATED (pipeline, MLPs, etc.) on radar. Actually, my repeated overweight (in between some biotechs) has been an energy that is also green today. All my trades there were successful thus far....NOT A REC, crude or nat gas may opinion is YES, but could also test lower later. En plus, some companies may go bk. Treacherous out there.
    And observing BDI, which WAS moving up as I posted about ocean shipping some pullback....but some treacherous tradable moves. (I actually forgot I traded DRYS ...breakeven...did not move quickly and was too dangerous to hold ... and also PRGN...bought at .25 and did not manage to sell on bounce to I'm out of both. THOSE are so dangerous I tend to hold only TINIEST amounts, IF I hold any at all. My apologies I cannot post all buy/sells, but DO POST the general statement that I sell all QUICKLY if a trade, ANY TRADE, moves AGAINST ME. In any case, please NEVER buy what I buy, but use CRITICAL THINKING.

    JUST my opinion


  • vcaritas vcaritas Dec 4, 2015 12:00 PM Flag

    re AGW

    Increasingly, renowned and brilliant researchers, including climate scientists, physicists, geologists, etc., have publicly renounced the 'religion of the dark side' (the Church of Global Warming/aka 'Climate Catastrophe'/aka 'Climate Change'/et alia),

    based on AUTHENTIC science.

    See my post on the NEM mb (and dozens over the last 10 yrs) explaining that AGW is PSEUDO-SCIENCE at best,

    and a pure 'carbon trading' while fleecing the population, while depopulating, while destroying economies that respect the human person....

    SCAM at worst.

    Serious science, supported by REAL (not massaged) data is discussed daily on the wattsupwiththat website.

    The new movie, 'CLIMATE HUSTLE' includes commentary by DOZENS of skeptics, many of them 'newly-minted' via their desire for AUTHENTIC SCIENCE, verifiable (not computer models verifying 'friendly' computer models that do not even CONTAIN ALL THE KNOWN VARIABLES).

    Trillions are being spent/traded that could be aiding with world HUNGER, with REAL pollution, with so many needs...

    instead of hocus-pocus anti-science...instituted by a POLITICAL ARM OF THE UN... for the purpose of greed, power, destabilizing liberty-loving countries and assisting the elite manipulators and the oppressors who 'work' with them for power.

    jmo, but FEW have spent as many hours annually for more than a dozen years studying the actual SCIENCE in numerous languages.

    Follow Authentic Science Wherever It Leads

  • vcaritas vcaritas Dec 4, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Is there a professional 'club' for those who lie and slander on Yahoo to which wild_gold belongs....or perhaps he is the head instigator?

    There was a gold long names 'Lyle' (I believe) on the NEM mb years ago. DOUBT that person posts at all any more, but he did attempt to counter the lies of the bashers and trashers of BOTH gold miners AND the US Constitution/Bill of Rights, and overall of the United States. Observe his own posts by clicking on his name, and also the posts of the alleged 'criminals' he slanders...usually Mom n Pop investors, certainly RETAIL investors, not hedge funds. Could HE be the one who somehow 'signals' hedge funds without any visible trace, while endlessly accusing OTHERS of doing just that? (See 'Rules for Radicals')

    Wild_gold pretends to care about this country, but opposes what would expose corruption, support the Constitution/Bill of Rights, and interferes with free speech on the internet by lying and slandering, by misinformation/disinformation....learned from Alinsky/KGB tactics?

    In my own case, I am bullish on the long term for gold because of the outrageously BAD policies of the overstenders and nanny-staters who have UNNECESSARILY crushed US and many world economies.

    I am more bullish (long term) on silver than on gold.

    Precise timing for entry into miners (equities) is difficult and I have often been incorrect. Our family does not have the luxury of buying and holding bullion of any sort.

    Btw, CVX rising from lows...NOT a rec...see my post on CDE mb re OPEC and the fact that they output goal is actually the SAME as what is currently occurring, according to some sources.

    ONLY an opinion. Posting on Yahoo mb in a NEGATIVE way may possible kill a stock or prevent SMALL investors from bothering to attempt objective DD. Posting in a POSITIVE (as I do), way actually has little, if any, effect on the price per shares. Why? It is the BigBoy hedge funds/institutions/funds/mm's etc. who 'decide' when to 'allow' a stock. jmo

  • My understanding of Bloomberg and CNBC comments is that ACTUAL output is already at stated INCREASE.

    Nice premarket dip in UWTI (triple long USO, US crude)...and it is rising from lows.

    Personally still expecting more bounce in energies AND in gold/silver, palladium...

    Gold MAY finish with a WEEKLY gain...would be bullish.

    Aluminum bouncing (Boomberg reporting) is a 'hopeful' sign.

    ONLY my opinion. I am not overweighting any individual miner at this point, tho I have small amounts of JNUG and NUGT, (triple long GDXJ GDX, gold jr and larger miners respectively) which I have continued to sell into bounces, sometimes rebuying or adding lower.

    XOM CVX currently rising from gap down at open.

    CDE up NICELY into 2.70's.

    Profit for Good Causes

  • vcaritas vcaritas Dec 1, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    Our family/friends/ are heavily involved in the sciences, including physics, astronomy, meteorology, climate, as well as the biological science (MDs), and PhD in computer sciences/etc.

    Although we read the actual published materials, some worthwhile debate can be obtained at the website wattsupwiththat. There are numerous links FROM that website in a column on the right hand side. There is debate on various sides of climate and weather science, with a goal of nothing short of plain TRUTH.

    Icecap is another great source. Not a dotcom, but us instead after icecap.

    The computer models have NEVER contained all the variables, and are simply constructed to confirm one another. The surface data is 'massaged' in various provable ways. The history of this IPCC is one of a POLITICAL arm of the UN NOT a scientific body. The 'consensus' fallacy is discussed on the website I mentioned...go into the archives. In any case, even a true consensus would not be proof of objective science, in any case.
    NUMEROUS leftists, socialists, Dems, non-affilated researchers and journalists have come over from the 'dark side' after coming to the realization the so-called science is smoke and mirrors for the purpose of greed, money manipulation and power.

    The 'pause' is widely known.. only the liars will attempt to explain it away. There is no reasonable confirmation of the hypothesis, nor HAS there been any during all these decades. Only through distorted graphs, massaged data, and scary 'talk' does anyone come up with confirmed significant warming overall ... or projected in coming DECADES by their pseudo-science.

    In fact, most objective researchers and those who truly evaluate ALL the authentic data, facts, variables will come to the conclusion global COOLING is more likely. Tho that fact has been known for quite some time, long before NASA finally admitted it could occur, and even before they admitted to the pause, the sciencee is ignored. Authentic science. jmo Agape~

  • Have traded CCJ successfuly on numerous occasions, but would now consider a long term hold if that breakout occurs. High percentage gains would be likely near term, once the clear upmove is in place. Longer term, CCJ may also be a 'gem' stock, considering the number of planned reactors (China, India, etc. and the restarts).

    JUST my opinion. NOT a rec.

    Note that URPTF, which tracks spot uranium, has had nice upmoves recently.

    Discl.: No shares of CCJ at this time. I have trade a number of uranium stocks and sometimes sold ALL because the uptrend was not yet confirmed overall, for the long term.

    I hold a few shares of some tiny uraniums and may consider adding to some. Technicals and overall international news...looks bullish to me for possible reversal to VERY LONG TERM upside. I've been wrong before about the 'bottom' (tho I traded upside when there was no clear confirmation)...but I now observe the turnaround is even more probable and could be even more explosive to percentage MY opinion.

    ONLY my opinion, and I NEVER intend to rec.

    Posting is time-consuming and does not help the price per share, so my post is only to give hope to those who are already long based on THEIR OWN DD that should, imo, included TECHNICAL analysis.
    (Sadly, bashing may cause others to sell, but positive posts are primarily to help other individual investors who do not have the millions, billions, to force moves on the market or sector or their liking. When the BigBoyz 'decide' to cover and let this go, it will be superb...again ONLY my opinion.

    Profit for Good Causes

  • Reply to

    gold/commodities/currencies: ying yang yen yuan

    by vcaritas Dec 1, 2015 3:01 AM
    vcaritas vcaritas Dec 1, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Thanks fer insights, lpet and mblimon2000.

    Reversal (gold/silver/platinum/palladium/copper, perhaps uranium) may be in progress at last.

    Remains to be seen.


  • vcaritas vcaritas Dec 1, 2015 3:12 AM Flag

    Personally preparing for potential pounce time...or at least bounce time...



  • vcaritas vcaritas Dec 1, 2015 3:10 AM Flag

    I also 'vote' for possibility some short Big Boyz jes think not many more longs left to be squeezed out at these oversold levels on daily, weekly, monthly. Too many new longs in or ready to pounce, at least fer bounce, imo.

    Just another possible factor.

    'Many' have been awaiting effects (on non-effects) of the new 'basket'...


  • vcaritas vcaritas Dec 1, 2015 3:06 AM Flag

    See overnight trading in dollar/yen/euro/Canadian dollar/etc. and the new 'yuan' addition to basket:

    "CHINA CURRENCY: The IMF's move to include the yuan along with the dollar, pound, euro and yen in its yardstick basket reflects the rising importance of China's economy and its currency."

    from barchart website.

    See currencies (dollar red,; euro/Canadian dollar/Australian dollar green)...

    also note green gold/crude...

    See news from China/Japan.

    Profit for Good Causes

  • Yawn or YOW?

    "CHINA CURRENCY: The IMF's move to include the yuan along with the dollar, pound, euro and yen in its yardstick basket reflects the rising importance of China's economy and its currency."

    And more data:

    JAPAN DATA: The monthly Nikkei survey of factory purchasing managers was at 52.6 in November, the highest reading in 20 months and up from 52.4 in October. The report said strong orders and a rise in manufacturing were behind the robust reading. Meanwhile, a survey on factory investment showed a higher than expected 5.4 percent rise in July-September from the previous quarter.

    CHINA MANUFACTURING: An official survey shows that Chinese manufacturing was at its weakest in more than three years in November while service industries improved. The manufacturing index based on a survey of factory purchasing managers slipped to 49.6 in November from 49.8 the previous month. The index is based on a 100-point scale, with the 50-point mark separating expansion from contraction
    Gold/silver/crude green, at the moment in overnight trading.

    As fer currencies, see barchart website or other commodities trading access info:

    U.S. Dollar Index DXZ15 (Dec '15) 100.045 -0.165 100.250 100.255 100.000 01:37
    British Pound B6Z15 (Dec '15) 1.5094 +0.0035 1.5061 1.5102 1.5050 01:37
    Canadian Dollar D6Z15 (Dec '15) 0.74950 +0.00080 0.74930 0.75030 0.74880 01:37
    Japanese Yen J6Z15 (Dec '15) 0.813350 +0.000900 0.812200 0.815450 0.811250 01:37
    Swiss Franc S6Z15 (Dec '15) 0.97510 +0.00170 0.97280 0.97540 0.97210 01:37
    Euro FX E6Z15 (Dec '15) 1.05950 +0.00190 1.05720 1.06000 1.05660 01:37
    Australian Dollar A6Z15 (Dec '15) 0.72640 +0.00360 0.72220 0.72790 0.72210 01:37
    Mexican Peso M6Z15 (Dec '15) 0.060290 +0.000050 0.060320 0.060370 0.060260 01:36
    New Zealand Dollar N6Z15 (Dec '15) 0.66380 +0.00580 0.65840 0.66410 0.65770 01:37
    South African Rand T6Z15 (Dec '15) 0.069225

  • Despite the strong dollar, metals and energy are extremely oversold and attracting bottom fishers according to the charts.

    CVX XOM COP numerous other energies are way up from lows. NOT a rec. Only one aspect of overall EVALUATION of markets/currencies/commodities. The stocks often lead the associated commodity in a bounce or a reversal.

    Personally have continued to TRADE bounces in the energies/metals overall, OR to hold tiny bookmark quantities in some, since I AM expecting another significant bounce, at the least, and possibly a reversal to upside.
    The uncertainty keeps me TRADING additional shares, rather than holding all.

    IF there is a smackdown in miners if/when Fed raises, it could offer a buy op for highly speculative bounce trade, imo, for ME...and meanwhile, I am attempting to add/trade in various areas to accumulate more shares (adding on pullback, including in other industries/sectors/commodities).

    Treacherous ACI touched $1, then rose to 10.35, according to weekly. (I sold too soon, but at profit.) THEN fell to .80....and I do NOT RECOMMEND any long/short/options position(s) on this or ANYWHERE...but it should be noted it is rising again.

    If coal is rising or bouncing or reversing, some of the most beaten-down stocks COULD have short covering.

    SOMETIMES the high percentage gains that are 'expected' to take place (due to the so-called 'January effect') bounce instead in December.

    MAY or may not include miners or CDE. My personal strategy includes the expection of a bounce in some miners and energies, along with many other beaten-down stocks that have been sold as tax loss. MIGHT include CDE, but I have only TINY amount of CDE at this time and I do NOT INTEND TO REC CDE or any stock/commodity.

    I am recommending thorough and INDEPENDENT research and critical thinking. I personally include technical analysis in evaluating entry to most long positions (equities).

    If I add HEAVILY, I sell all if reversal IS NOT CLEAR.

    ONLY my opinion