The most brilliant investor/trader I ever met (observed years of trading) occasionally made mistakes in posting, possibly due to super-concentration on the trading itself.
in fact, some actual dyslexics or those with other supposed 'deficits' are often brilliant in some area.
Some very famous sports figures, actors, actresses, artists, musicians, on and on, sometimes have some challenges in other areas, or may even have a serious neurological condition. One famous vet is on the autism spectrum, but folks like you would probably throw rocks at her and at the animals she treats. How sick. Think about the harm you do and grow up. I have friends who trade options or are pro shorts...and not a one would even consider posting like ronz or coal or the others who bash here do. NOT A ONE. And they likely make higher percentage gains annually
SirEdmund's post are likely to force you to covef your short, due to the FACTUAL INFORMATION he ceaselessly posts. What good fortune to have him on this message board.
Possible the rate hike is already priced in, tho we may (or may NOT) have an interim dip after the hike. DIP will likely be BOUGHT HUGE, imo, should it occur. Near term dollar had a tad bear look, with oversold euro bouncing. Did you make 21% today in your overweight trade? 4% in entire trading portfolio (which in my case includes 'nuggets' from years n years ago). Downside may be limited at this point for shorts, after such a massive pullback, especially with geopolitical and economic UNKNOWNS...so many of 'em. Tell yer hedge fund masters risk/reward for shorting is becoming a tad too treacherous and there are greener short pastures elsewhere.
Technical guru who has been famously BEARISH ON GOLD, recently commented (article) many may be extremely surprised when gold turns around...because the sentiment is now so bearish, even among traders, that (despite the treacherous technicals) the SENTIMENT is a factor for a BULL MOVE or even a reversal, SOON.jmo
but I would NOT be surprised to find many miners and even JNUG NUGT closing close to high of day.
Risk/reward is narrowing for shorts, and may even be too dangerous for some at this point.
There are simply too many variables and it is DIFFICULT to evaluate which ones have already been priced in.
Some geopolitical 'problems' may finally be AT THE CUSP of being taking seriously. HOW OUTRAGEOUS that only NOW are we addressing what could have been much more easily addressed 7 years ago. Millions of WOMEN and CHILDREN and HUSBANDS ... Muslims and Christians and persons of all faiths or no faith have been raped, slaughtered...
and I believe those who say we've already been in WWIII for some time have been correct.
There have always been common sense solutions, but our elite manipulators PROFIT FROM CHAOS because it increases their power and often their WALLETS...and for some, the 'wallets' of their countries. Many US citizens have little understanding of what has been occurring for decades. Read the editorial at IBD on the history of the DESTABILIZATION of the Middle EAST. Read how each leader, including of countries, and of international entities, has been involved. There are a number of articles, including one on the 3 Israeli teens and the problems created by the US, another with the history going back to Carter with destabiilzing Iran. What I am stating is not an argument for gold (since it is possible water and food may be more desperate needs at some point). It's a plea for each individual to EDUCATE himself.herself AND TO HAVE THECOURAGE TO INSPIRE OTHERS TO BECOME EDUCATED. We continue to vote for the demise of life, liberty and opportunity for ourselves and OUR CHILDREN, and for the children of the world. I myself foolishly voted for Carter, but I EVENTUALLY learned, despite my stubborn, blind idealistic ideas that only caused more DANGER to the world, due to the naivete. Ignorance can cause immense harm.
Compare insider BUYING at insidercow to other miners, like HL, where there has been (this year, some time ago) significant SELLING, with no buying YET...tho that is likely coming). I'm using insidercow, tho the only absolutely reliable source is directly through the filing...usually a link a websites of companies...or go directly to company filings.
It is also possible to access some info on foreign stocks at other websites.
RGLD had selling in Sept., 2015, while a tiny jr miner recently had massive BUYING.
Fyi, LNG had repeated buying. No longer long LNG, tho I initially purchased in the 2's, as posted on that message board long ago.
Note also the activity of the basher/trasher class infesting this and other message boards on Yahoo. Each uses some technique to elicit a RESPONSE to their NEGATIVE POST...so that the infighting and NEGATIVITY remains on the first page. They're DELIGHTED when someone 'talks back' DIRECLY to their thread. it does not matter AT ALL....;AT ALL ...what anyone actually SAYS. The goal is to create an ATMOSPHERE of negativity and FEAR for those who access the mb...right on the FIRST PAGE...since few will bother to do further DD after that. The effect may be primarily on Mom and Pop investors.
To COUNTERACT the bashers, respond REPEATEDLY with positive information by starting a SEPARATE SUBJECT HEADING AND THREAD. Continue to respond to the subject headings that are POSITIVE to keep them on the first page.
These actions will likely NOT HELP the price per share, but they MAY HELP the SMALL investor (who does not move individual stocks much, if at all, especially in the initial stages of a turnaround in a stock with volume like CDE). I consider it WORTHWHILE to attempt to help the small investor. PLEASE understand that my postings are NEVER a rec. When I first started trading years ago, I rec'd and learned how OFTEN I WAS WRONG and BADLY SO. Now I only rec for CRITICAL THINKING, THOROUGH research.
according to insidercow website that tracks the actual insider BUYING v ordinary granting of shares, etc.
Also note institutional activity from that website, from filings, from CNBC, etc.
Of course, reading thru filings is worthwhile, esp if one intends to invest heavily, tho some traders ONLY look at technicals. It's worthwhile to form groups to evaluate, especially if several are strong in technicals analysis and others in financials, still others in geology, meteorology, econ, financial planning, dividends, etc.
NOT a rec. ONLY my opinion, tho I have found insidercow to be quick and overall reliable.
Profit for Good Causes
Technically, GLD could fall to $800, especially IF the interest rate raise occurs and is 'said' to be 'not priced in' AND even more, IF the Central Banks ease.
Meanwhile, expecting an interim bounce after Thanksgiving, but will not 'BET' on it by adding heavily...at least that's not my current plan.
Instead, I have been SELLING the bounces in NUGT JNUG and sometimes rebuying lower. And, as posted, have added small amounts to some miners or added new miners. CDE seems to have had washout-type volume on the monthly chart, which is a plus. NOT impossible for CDE or any miner to test lower, imo. Personally think GDX and GDXJ (and triple longs NUGT and JNUG) are way overdue for a good strong upmove and may be (??? FINALLY) printing the completion of a bullish bottoming formation. Bottoms tend to be clear only retrospectively, once there is massive influx of volume to upside, and formation of higher highs (with higher volume), and higher lows on pullback )WITH LOWER VOLUME). Or the successful moves out of a cnh or hns bottoming.
I evaluate INTRADAY charts and news when I here to do so, however. XME has not quite touched the lower downtrend line on the weekly.
NOT A REC. Only a rec to ignore pumping and trashing, but to discover the BEST MEANS of being objective:
all the docs, of course
history of management in general and of any CHANGES in management
geopolitical and economic factors, as well as specific 'country' risk
all the technicals, based on about 2 years of serious learning of all aspects (free website tutorials and reasonably priced books available).
For long term holds, NOT necessary to buy at the PRECISE low.
HOWEVER, when overall economies are questionable, or markets volatile, I take those factors into consideration regarding size of purchase on long side or even if/when to initiate a purchase. SOME types of uncertainty may eventually help gold.
For typical investing, buy ONLY ON CONFIMRED UPTREND. jmo
No rec for buying Chinese indices or those of any other country, Asian or other/emerging/ whatever...ONLY a rec to keep all factors that may potentially affect markets...ANY markets...on radar. Also a rec to discover who is buying gold and in what quantities (to the extent that information may be publicly available and ACCURATE) and also who is NOT buying....and who is EXPECTED to buy or continue to buy (countries/Central Banks/entities/funds/traders/investors/etc.)
NOT a rec to buy commodities or ocean shipping, tho I personally have my toe in the water for some mining and only tiny amounts of 3 ocean shippers. I still have repeatedly overweighted elsewhere in markets....and if the reversal is not clear, I SELL the additional shares...or may even sell all. I do not short individual stocks, but do believe the average investor can learn to short indices, crude, etc. IF they study technical analysis and IF the trend is extremely CLEAR...AND if the shares are sold when the picture is cloudy.
My posts are about ways to 'take the pulse' of the various markets and sectors. Also about seeking out potential gems.
Traded/owned dozens of ocean shipping stocks in the last decade, incuding several trades of stocks that were, as they say, 3 or 4 baggers at the time, DRYS among them, some years ago. I do not HOLD all shares or even ANY shares, in some cases, IF there are reasons for weakness OR if I have added heavily for a trade. In the case of the ocean shippers, many had not yet bottomed, so I now hold only three at this time.
It is possible an INFLECTION point in the downtrend for some beaten-down commodities is en route...a point at which it becomes somewhaqt dangerous for shorts to continue to hold...or at least LESS PROFITABLE than some other alternatives...at least fro a time.
Since gold is still technically in a downtrned, I will not HOLD an overweight except for a short term or intermediate term bounce.
Ditto ocean shipping.
Peace Analysis Agape~
What do shippers ship? How much and to whom? From whom?
There are some 'beloved' shippers that have moved from recent 5's to 16's (NAT, for example).
Some 'darlings' of the big boyz (my opinion) like SFL pay a dividend.
Others have been beaten to a pulp...have already gone bk, or may, OR have moved to another index due to price...or may dilute, if they have not done so already.
Ocean shipping may be the most treacherous seas in trading and investing...or the most lucrative.
CHECK the charts and think about the SIGNIFICANCE of what is occuring and what DOES occur in coming days/weeks/months...for global economy...
and possibly for dry bulk...for relation to metals, to precious metals.
At this time I own tiny amounts of 3 ocean shippers and added in recent weeks to my extremely TINY amounts.
I tend NOT to hold an overweight unless/until a clear reversal for that stock/sector/industry/index UNLESS/UNTIL clear reversal to upside, tho I may trade bounces from time to time (heavily or tiny amounts).
NOT a rec for anything but INDEPENDENT THINKING for reading sources that MAY give additional persepctive, like shadowstats website, IBD editorials (etc.), economic/political/geopolitical opinions at CATO, Heartland Institute, Heritage Foundation, theconservativetreehouse, zerohedge and all the mining and energy websites/blogs....again, not to believe whatever one reads, but to evaluate perspectives.
Think: How long will shorting commodities be the most profitable game available to the Big Boy Elite? WHEN will 'they' decide it is more lucrative to GO LONG specific commodities or indices? When will they begin (or continue) to take profit in areas that have already had magnificent percentage gains over the long term.
Also observe: secular bull trend v cyclical for any country, index, commodity/ commodities.
Also observe that even bear market rallies may sometimes be VICIOUS.
ONLY my opinion.
Profit for Good Causes
2001/2002 marked a long term rise for both crude and gold, peaking early 2008.
Both crude and gold had moved DOWN from 1996 to 2000.
Both gold and WTI crude moved to a high level in 2008 and sank heavily with the 'crash '08/'09.
With GLD at 185.85 on weekly, US crude moves slightly higher than other near term spikes (except for the 2008 high in crude).
Brent, US crude and gold/silver all now trending down overall, excpet for the tiny bull candle on crude today.
Tho there is no lockstep move in the commodities, there MAY be some followup for gold in an upmove with crude. ECB and Fed moves are extremely BEARISH for gold, but these have been expected for some time. Might be another smackdown on news followed by a bounce OR uptrend.
Twenty-year chart shows some correlation with LONG TERM trends, with some LONG TERM SHIFTS also.
The overall moves are observable to anyone using a stockcharts, incrediblecharts, yahoo or other chart that allows overlay of crude and gold for 20 or more years. (I used both $WTIC $GOLD) and for shorter term USO GLD, tho I watch Brent as well, since it has tended to lead WTI.
Point is, we may finally be at an inflection point for crude and possibly soon for gold/silver. Palladium ......... very nice.
In the past, when I posted on the message board of a miner, I tended to include the caveat that any bullish outlook would be affected by movement in gold/silver or associated commodity. When I made bullish comments, I tended to post it was my opinion IF gold/silver/etc. continued in long term/intermediate term or near term uptrend. I posted similar comments so many dozens of times over the years, as has SirEdward, I tend not to include them any more, since my friends already know that is OBVIOUS (as does anyone reaind the comments of SirEdward, unless they know nothing about markets). Moreover, he tends to post 'silver dictates' rather often. Even the most naive intestor understands that.
ONLY my opinion. NEVER a rec.
Fact that Saudi's have stated they now want to 'stabilize' the price of oil is overall BULLISH for gold and silver, imo.
Tho inexpensive energy has helped the bottom line for many miners, a fear (in the minds of some) of a potential spiral down deflationary cycle may be assuaged.
En plus, the CRB has retested a significant low. Even Bloomberg mentioned this recently...and they tend to emphasize the bearish stance for crude/gold/silver/copper/coal/emerging markets, it seems to me.
My personal method (since I was not certain WHEN the bottom would occur, or WHERE...gasp...),
has been to accumulate TINY amounts of some miners and energies, occasionally overweighting for a potential bounce, I sold all repeatedly (except for a tiny nugget) in many cases, especially if I added more heavily. I also sold all IF the trade moved against me.
I occasionally trade out of my 'tiny' nuggets to add to another clear mover, and then watch to rebuy lower, if possible, or to buy something else.
I tend to seek out potential long term gems and attempt to trade 'around' them.
NOT sure if CDE is a potential gem, but the pps is low enough to add/trade and keep nugget. HAVE NOT YET STARTED TO DO THAT SINCE SILVER FELL WHEN CDE was in the 30's. I posted I had added, but did not add HEAVILY. Adding heavily many mean adding 10, 20 or 50 times the 'nugget' that I am holding, depending upon the shares price. 'Overweighting' simply means holding more shares of that particular index or stock than I do of any other. I have tended to overweight JNUG NUGT for bounces. I simply NEVER have enough cash on hand to overweight even the tiniest biotech in such as way that it would affect price per share negatively or positively. My goal is to profit from the moves of the big boyz who move stocks by attempting to read the tea leaves of the ttechnicals AND by investing in potential 'multibaggers' or at least undervalued movers.
If/when gold/silver turn to upside, miners may be gems.
UUP was NEAR TERM overbought and due for a pullback, as of yesterday's technicals.
Personally not CERTAIN, but it's possible the miners have already bottomed and may be prancing upward from these oversold levels EVEN IF gold itself takes a temporary dive (on a potential Dec rate hike).
IF it does dip....since nothing is certain in markets.
Meanwhile, FXE is green by .58% and dollar is down, thus far, intraday.
Gold climbing...even a Bloomberg mention of 'spike'...shorts covering?
NOT a rec for anything excpet for INDEPENDENT thinking based on objective and thorough DD from ATYPICAL and RELIABLE sources...not the mainscream media, not the bashers (or mindless pumpers) on any message board.
Personally am an advocate of comprehensive study of all aspects of technical analysis. Johm Murphy's book "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets' (various editions, some available used) is a known and respected sosurce of info, as are quite a number of technical webdsites. I'm not an advocate for expensive coursee, personally.
Tho financials are important, IMPROVING or DETERIORATING financial OUTLOOK is actually more important in near term moves, in many cases.
Will miners continue on DOWN endlessly? All of 'em? Some have already doubled from lows. Some have been profitable, even in THIS environment.
NUGT is up 7.88% thus far (tends to be extremely volatile...and NONE of this is a rec).
JNUG gapped up and is now green by 5%.
These are/were nicely TRADABLE moves, at the least. Why do bashers want readers and posters to have such a NARROW focus?
Jim Wyckoff comments, "One dovish element in the FOMC minutes was the reference that any future U.S. interest rate increases will be gradual in nature"
Another article at Kitco: HSBC: Gold May Have Already Factored In Fed Rate Hike, May Trade Sideways-Higher
Thursday November 19, 2015 08:25
See my comments on NUGT mb re FXE (euro) showing oversold with an improving candlestick yesterday, green at the moment,
UUP (dollar ETF) with near term overbought and a near term pullback possible).
UPSIDE VOLUME GREATER THAN AVERAGE for some miners and mining-related ETFs.
DZZ (Double Gold Short) overbought. jmo for NEAR TERM.
Gold still technically in a DOWNTREND, however....needs to start making higher highs and higher lows with convincing volume. All only my opinion.
Profit for Good Causes
Bear candle on DUST yesterday. DUST may be biting the dust, at least near term. Overbought DZZ. (Double Short gold)
Bullish look to NUGT GDX GDXJ JNUG and many miners, along with XME.
UUP (dollar ETF) shows overbought with questionable candle.
Euro (FXE) showing potential bounce.
Better than average volume NUGT GDX etc. to UPSIDE yesterday.
Watch moneyflow and be nimble.
En plus, et plus important, BE TRUTHFUL.
LNG fell from 8.12 (according to monthly chart) to about 37 cents.
By your logic, it would NOT HAVE BEEN A GOOD IDEA TO INVEST IN LNG at 37 cents or even in the 2's, as I did (and posted on that message board).
LNG subsequently touched $85, tho it has pulled back in current environment to 40's.
If a stock/index/industry has FALLEN to extreme lows, there is no PROOF it will continue to fall, nor that it will languish.
Crummy financials will show improvement with improved price of silver, so some of the least loved miners may EVENTUALLY become the darlings.
The former KOG (energy) fell to about .16 ... I was buying .50 cents and below. I actually did not buy at the PRECISE low. KOG moved over $16 as I remember...no longer available...buyout, I think (I had already sold).
Another example: KERX had fallen to .09. In the 2's (I believe, or lower), someone on this message baord asked IF I considered it worthwhile. I expressed my personal bullishness and I did own from the 2's or so. Subsequently touched 18.48. Sold long ago. Now has pulled back and have not have time for new DD there.
NONE of this is EVER a rec. Retail buyers are NOT GONNA move a stock, even a biotech, since the big boyz 'decide' when to 'ALLOW' a move...or accumulate (in the case of biotech) until some good news comes and then THEY take at least partial profits into the upmove...so I DO RECOMMEND small investors do the same, since they may be the target of various types of manipulation IF they don't take at least SOME PROFITS when they are to be had...eg, a double or huge spike, etc. Would be better if we could all hold long term, but most of us Mom n Pop investors cannot afford that risk, so I sometimes hold a long term 'nugget' around which I trade.
Investors should check out investopedia website, thepatternsite, incrediblecharts, stockcharts and other sources to learn about trendlines, configurations, moneyflow indicators, breakouts, uptrends, key reversals.
Peace n Agape~
For reversal from downtrend to uptrend, various factors may come into play:
1) Prolonged washout volume, IF a long term downtrend has been in place.
2) IMPROVEMENT IN MONEYFLOW INDICATORS THERE ARE NUMEROUS USING VARIOUS TIMEFRAMES I INCLUDE INTRADAY.
3) Key reversal....from incrediblecharts:
After an up-trend:
The Open must be above yesterday's Close,
The day must make a new High, and
The Close must be below yesterday's Low.
After a down-trend:
The Open must be below yesterday's Close,
The day must make a new Low, and
The Close must be above yesterday's High.
The signals are most reliable if they occur after a strong trend. If the trend is weak, so is the signal.
For longer term holds, I observe for a pattern of higher highs and higher lows and a break of downtrend line. MIGHT use intraday, daily, weekly, even monthly charts for various evaluations.
Also see thepatternsite website, dozens of others.
Btw, for courses, it IS worthwhile to become a CMT and take their series of courses, if one is interested. May work for institution, etc.
Have been studying various technical analysis methods and developing my own strategies for more than a decade. Also have notes, mss for eventual publication.
Knowing a tiny aspect of tech analysis (such as candlesticks of a particular type) MAY sometimes lead to gains IF one IMMEDIATELY sells if trade moves in wrong direction. See americanbulls website for rather spectacular short term gains (tho they include SHORTING and going LONG, often rather quckly, to achieve those returns).
Personally, DO use some short term signals for an intraday or very SHORT TERM trade, but I also use 'minute' and hour charts (as well as taking at least a look at the daily, weekly, monthly).
Overall, however, I'm an advocate for learning a COMPREHENSIVE technical analysis from WEBSITE (like stockcharts or incrediblecharts and a number of others)...
trendlines, configurations, dozens of variations of exponential and simple moving average combination studies, Japanese and a number of other candlestick types, dozens of indicators in various timeframes, whatever other pearls of wisdom can be gained from the websites, quality books. An old staple is John Murphy's ' book on Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. Even one of the used bks (eg, from Amazon) may be worthwhile, imo.
SPECIFIC METHOD for evaluating RISK/REWARD with support, target, pvt pts, etc.
RATIO charts, RATIO of various factors, including
Worthwhile to learn something about point & figure charting and Elliott Wave, imo.
There are certified technical analysts who are professionals. Perform a search for Certification for Technical Analysts and take a look at the course required.
NOT an advocate for any particular expensive course, since I believe most can be learned with books and online, and the courses often cover only the BASICS easily obtainable from other sources, imo. PAPER TRADE for a significant timeframe, in various market conditions. EVALUATE successes and ERRORS, devising BETTER STRATEGIES. jmo
Many of the bullish candlestick patterns were printed on miners and mining ETFs today NEAR TREND LINES, support, or (in the case of CDE and some others) at extreme lows (toward lower downtrend line).
We need powerful and sustained influx of BUY volume for miners, along with higher highs and higher lows to begin to confirm an uptrend. Usually prolonged washout volume is at last followed by improvements in the moneyflow indicators (use various timeframes). There are a number of indicators, including Twiggs.
Key reversal: check out definition. Does not necessarily mean reversal to upside HOLDS. Currently observing 'hopeful' candlesticks that need confirmation to signify more upside.
Several factors to keep in mind if considering a long position in the metals:
1) One need not buy at the PRECISE low to make money, but one must have the fortitude to hold despite some volatility if one buys in current environment.
2) Options expiration, esp near Thanksgiving holiday, will be an op for shorts to attempt to frighten shareholders in selling...or COULD be a buy op IF the selling occurs.
3) End of year tax selling may still occur to SOME extent, tho the 'tutes' tend to rebalance end of Sept.
4) 'Someone' may discover China econ has shown some weakness recently, but is not actually DEAD. (DOH!)...May jumpstart some gold/crude.
5) 'Someone' might notice INDIA has a huge economy.
6) 'Soemone' might notice the strong dollar is messing with US trade numbers, with emerging markets that are needed for world eocnomy, and with companies associated with commodities that MUST GROW and reverse in order for major US indices to rise. NOTE: Summatha biggies in energy have already had excellent gains: see recent months' lows for XOM CVX MRO DVN RRC v current price. Since investors tend to look 6 months out, are 'they' seeing $10 crude and $1.25 nat gas? OR higher price ?
7) Low energy prices may possibly be helping some miners.
Profit for Good Causes
Miners OFTEN move up on EXPECTATION of improving financials, which may occur even for the most oppressed company, especially if silver reverses.
Once a company has superb financials, most of the percentage gains may already have been MADE by those willing to take a strategic risk.
jmo, but historically true in many cases.
Strategies for Profit for Good Causes
Yes, respond to the USEFUL posts to keep them at the top and on the first page. It's worthwhile to look back several pages to include SO MUCH NEW INFORMATION, especially that posted by SirEdmund.
It will not help pps of CDE, but WILL be helpful to the Mom and Pop investors who access the message board. They can and should verifiy the facts. Posting factual information does not usually HELP a stock, since it is the big players that will make the pps move WHEN they are ready to let it go to upside.
Bashing, however, HAS BEEN SHOWN TO HURT A STOCK, so it is worthwhile NOT TO RESPOND DIRECTLY TO BASHERS. The manipulators LOVE to keep their inane scare tactics and accusations on the first page by taunting others WHO THEN RESPOND DIRECLY TO THEIR POSTS and keep their idiotic comments alive.
I do NOT RECOMMEND putting bashers on ignore, but only giving USEFUL INFORMATION on a NEW THREAD that combats their nonsense with SPECIFIC and OBJECTIVE facts.
Go to the deepcapture website for information on dealing with all of this.
Peace Wisdom Agape~