I might be your alter ego...but what gives I am here at my trading site trying to buy at the low of the day so far $5.75...my bid was in there...not executing...trying to chase it by raising the price a penny every minute or so...now at $5.78 bid....mcep at $5.81...time to go for a walk and look at the pacific ocean for awhile and chill
Thanks, Griffin for your expert opinion,...
My take on them
LINE, BBEP...are debt laden bombs that are in a hopeless position unless oil returns to $90+ levels, where everyone else will also do great, but if oil stays at $60-$70 range, both will have serious problems, only way out is debt for equity like swaps, heavy share-unit holder dilution...hence likely hood of serious loss for current equity holders, SELL
ARP, MEMP...my problem with both of these is the GP...the general partner appears to be at odds with the limited partners, and the GP always wins, both receive hefty discounts to fair value because of this and are on my do not buy list for now,
EROC, EVEP...are/have been mixed plays part midstream, part upstream...have not been focused on what I want them to be, which is being the best upstream operators
LGCY, VNR/LRE, MCEP...are the ones left that I focus on with MCEP the best value...LGCY needs higher prices for oil to work at current share-unit price, down side risk is currently greater then upside risk when compared to VNR/LRE
My current position 50/50 between LRE & MCEP...footnote hold big stake for over ten years in KMI/ old KMR
Hold other stakes in YHOO, GILD, CRZO, AAPL, JPM, FSLR, ABC, and small amounts in FLEX, NXPI and just now WFM...all are positive except most recent buy WFM...I do sell my loser aka survivor-ship bias..I do buy stocks and make mistake and sell at a lose..last big lose was ARP bought at the wrong time sold at $15.65 and went into the better upstreams that have all made me MONEY
Numbers are very important, but management must be focused on making the limited partners MONEY...that is why I am leary of ARP & MEMP because lately the GP has acted in the best interest and not the limited partners
My VNR/LRE combined numbers for 2016
Oil revs…. $283,500 ($70* 4,050)
Nat. gas…. $323,400($3.08*105,00)
Ngl ………$75,000 ($25*3,000)
G & A…………..…$25,000
Main. Cap exp… $132,000
Dcf per unit…$1.66
thanks again for all the great work that you do share with us, Griffin...
I have a more simplified spreadsheet for these mlp's...I do not try to break out all the pricing differences...just one number for oil, then one number for nat. gas, one number for ngl, and other revenues, and then sum them up....(aka oil production 4,000 * $80 = $320,000) and so on for the other components of revenues
The only thing I add to my spreadsheet that is not in your better spreadsheet is the borrowing base number & % of it's utilization
Not only was coverage 0.71, the debt increased too...If DCF for 2015 is going to be only $1.60...hedges decline by 5% next year and that comes right out of the DCF, without any cost cutting DCF drops to $1.20
All MEMP unit-holders can hope for is that this poor coverage ratio was a one time event..with GP dumping all their shares this past quarter...I am putting MEMP in the penalty box and going to see what they do next quarter...anything like this past quarter...then distribution cut is very likely...a don't buy for now
The answers by management you posted are boiler plate statements...analyst calls on conference calls can be easily manipulated by only allowing friendly ones on, that receive banking fees, hence no hard questions, just softball questions.
IMHO, the GP of MEMP was more interested in selling their shares, before anyone else, more interested in shifting cash from MEMP balance sheet to MRD balance sheet via "drop-downs". All these things happened while the opportunity to buy-back shares when MEMP was at $14, passed (in the 4th Q of 2014)
Again, it is beyond my feeble brain to comprehend how they can miss coverage by so much while they are so well hedged...debt levels rising...and of course on the call the same non-sense talk every upstream MLP has said this Q. about how much they are pursue acquisitions...aka acting like they have hard jobs that deserve they inflated stock-unit based compensation.
A lot more should be expected from limited partners...the general partner spent the 1st Q, looking for their interest first, and the limited partner last.
Agree with you 100%...partnership program devalues ARP...Cohen knows this and is just so use to telling investors that his junk is your gold...I place 10% discount to ARP for this complex MLP structure and Mr. Market probably places a bigger discount. Then I place an additional 10% discount when Cohen runs this Corporate structure because of his sticky fingers...any money that passes thur Cohen's hands...he always takes his cut...and then passes on the money to the limited partners...It is what Cohen has done his whole life...he knows nothing else...IMHO
That was not good..the GP dumps all their units/shares on the market...not a vote of confidence..glad I sold out at recent highs...Makes no sense how MEMP can miss 1.0x coverage by so much
well I listened to call...conflicts of interest are a problem for me...just looking at ARP's own income statement..ARP has "well construction and completion" as a revenue & an expense same with "gathering and processing" , "well services"...So ARP collects this from the "partnership"????
Also dcf coverage raio was 1.1x with all the great hedges
Also a lot of revenues came from a new property in the Eagle Ford that was bought at the market peak, so how is this so "great" as management says...the "partnership" & ARP unit-holders have a conflict of interest that bothers me and clouds the picture, just my humble opinion...The Cohens & Cooperman look out for themselves before ARP unitholders..."high" cost of capital also makes unit-holder future benefits limited...again Cohens & Cooperman playing unit-holders IMHO by collecting excessive fees everywhere they can
What is Cohen's problem? Why can't he just produce a clean earnings statement like MCEP?
When asked this question...the answer is "they are working on it"...what?..."Do Your Job"...is my response and ARP management clearly has failed to do their job and produce a clearer earnings report
Thanks for all your great work, Grif.
LINE is the biggest farce out there, so indebted that the stock should be in the low single digits. Wells Fargo is my brokerage ...issues reports on all the upstream MLPs except LINE...reason IMHO is that it is a sell but wells does too business with LINE so it just puts the report in a draw and collects fees from LINE...so when the LINE ship sinks...no one can say wells fargo failed to warn them. BTW wells fargo has not come out with a new report for the new version of ARP, yet.
I know your pain...yahoo messages boards won't let me post under jim_hairball....I have been outed...darn, sure liked Jim Hairball...the dude was right more often then not...
I still think MCEP will be bought out...a poster on seeking alpha (rawenergy) knows what these oil guys do...build up a company then sell-out and move on to the next investment...the money guys behind MCEP are likely similar to the people behind Lime Rock...take the money and run....works for me....so I say go ahead and make my day.
for making it real easy for investors like me...already made my yearly goals for investing...your hard work...confirmed what is easy for me to see...owning MEMP during the melt-down for all upstream MLP...then swapping out to the ones with the lowest debt ratios aka LRE/MCEP...I hope that you have also RICHLY enjoyed yourself...I personally did not sell out all my LRE yet for MCEP...now 50/50 and just waiting for LRE to close the deal or price gap between 1 LRE& 0.55 VNR before I sell most of it.
Real facts...more important then this nonsense...about 0.55 VNR or $8.93 because it is 0.55 VNR
Direct from SEC document: Q & A session of recent call
Analyst Q: Do you have any feel for what the Lime Rock Management, at their I guess 30
percent stake in LRE, is there any sort of lockup provision or any feel on what they were considering as far as their Vanguard
units after the deals closes?
Eric Mullins(LRE Boss-man): Yes. So there is a lockup. The lockup is 90 days after closing. And I think we feel like we’ve always felt which is we are
always considering our options as it relates to that. I think what we have told the market consistently was in terms of our
holdings is that we are going to be pretty methodical in terms of how we sell down on those units over time and that really
My Take: LRE unitholders got 90 days to sell their VNR shares-units before Lime Rock starts selling...and I believe as sure the the sun will rise that Lime Rock wants out and will sell off their entire stake soon after the lock up period expires..
Please...you might get what ever you think....BUT I as a shareholder unit-holder will get 0.55 shares of VNR for every 1 LRE....simple math 1,000 LRE=550 VNR...wrong math 1,000 LRE= $8,930
VNR now using at-the-market program to sell small amounts of equity over time...this is what will be done to pay for LRE $50 mil. loan...management finds this more cost effective way to raise equity as opposed to larger secondary offerings
VNR stating in conference call that coverage ratio will be under 1.0 in Q2, at 1.0 in Q3, and spike higher in Q4...higher capital spending in Q2 & Q3...this has already part of the yearly plan...no change in yearly guidance
my alter ego jim hairball is having trouble posting....go figure out what yahoo messages boards are doing...but I can post using venturabay