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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

veqasfletch2001 94 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 27, 2015 12:33 PM Member since: Sep 12, 2002
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  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 27, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    Today, DEPO has low volume and mostly retail players are trading.
    I am wondering if DEPO goes different direction than HZNP.
    If that is the case then next week when HZNP announces some acquisitions, it may affect DEPO PPS.

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Nov 27, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    The most waiting acquisition may be announced on Monday. Yes, this Monday and I give it 95% chance.
    That action will push the PPS to 200 MA which sitting close to $27.
    It is in sane if anyone sell today and misses the big news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Ok, DEPO management but not its shareholders won a case against HZNP, but this does not help DEPO to do better marketing and sell more drugs.

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 26, 2015 12:58 AM Flag

    Marc Wiener, Linden Care CEO, said, "We are disappointed in this ruling and believe we will prevail in arbitration proceedings. We are, and always have been, an independent specialty pharmacy under no manufacturer ownership or influence. Our work is critical to those in need."

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 25, 2015 8:38 PM Flag

    Once Geri told you not to mix subjects. Finish a though before jumping to another.
    Anyway, you seem to be angry at HZNP since DEPO is not doing well.
    You may be right that DEPO won in court but it lost its shareholders confidence.
    DEPO may know how to maneuver legal stuff but it is weak in marketing and drug sale.
    It was an opportunity for DEPO shareholders to share HZNP success but DEPO management was thinking about their fat wallets more than the shareholders.
    If HZNP could buy DEPO then its management could go after a different business, something that may know better. I think they could open a law firm, something they know much better than selling drugs and marketing.
    What do you think? Just a free advice.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 25, 2015 6:59 PM Flag

    This is the most BS I have ever heard from somebody. Well, corvettecars also has the same wish as you. Probably, you were disappointed when shareholders yawned yesterday about court decision. I don't blame shareholders since no company in the sector is equipped to deal with these types of problems better than HZNP. HZNP is experienced in this area and it created PME for this purpose.
    Today, HZNP was one of the best trading stocks with good volume. If the market didn't go flat one hour before the close, HZNP could end up with over 4% gain.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Linden Care...

    by russianmule2000 Nov 25, 2015 3:48 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 25, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    I think, one of Horizon's PME mission is to make sure that patients get their medication that doctors prescribe but not the ones that are decided by PBMs willfully for profit.
    Man this PME has become a headache for PBMs and ES is afraid that other drug manufactures may follow HZNP sooner or later which put a big dent in ESRX and CVS profit.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Linden Care...

    by russianmule2000 Nov 25, 2015 3:48 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 25, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    What I reading is both parties will negotiate on something to not harm patients.
    Meanwhile, HZNP will get other distributors involved in delivery of its drugs.

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 24, 2015 6:38 PM Flag

    I know, this lady is dangerous and she does every thing for money.
    She is getting money from rich Arabs, the same people who support ISIS too.

  • LC is a distributer for many pharmas and it handles less than 5% HZNP business.
    On the other hand, HZNP is using several different distributers (specialty pharmacy if you want to call it), even one from ES.
    If LC wins/lose or something in between, it has no effect on HZNP and the company will find other distributors. I think HZNP has already started to diversify and to increase it distributors. It indicated that it will do business with over 10 of them.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Forget DEPO - listen to today's GS CC

    by geringerart Nov 19, 2015 8:33 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 20, 2015 1:32 PM Flag

    Nucynta was not created by JNJ but a German company. DEPO has to pay double digit royalty to the German company.

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 20, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    No, the PP will deter any attempt by any company.
    You have to wait until paint dry in a few years.
    This is what you gets and if something happens like a competition for Nucynta then DEPO will be dead.

  • Reply to

    The Street

    by captainken07 Nov 20, 2015 10:52 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 20, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    Street follows its profit instead of helping shareholders. It probably shorted HZNP and now wants to get out at lower losses. Follow established analysts instead of for profit opinion.

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Nov 20, 2015 2:10 AM Flag

    DEPO current non-gap estimate for 2016 is $1.87 per share.
    With 66 diluted DEPO shares, income for 2016 = $1.87 * 66m = $123m
    HZNP has 160m shares and $2.09 income for 2016
    HZNP non-gap income = $2.09 * 160m = $334m
    Total HANP+DEPO income = $334 + $123 = $457m

    DEPO has about 20m shares of convertible
    Total DEPO shares to be converted to HZNP = 66m + 20m = 86m
    If converted to HZNP shares at 0.95 then it will be about 82m shares of HZNP.
    Total HZNP + DEPO shares = 160m + 82m = 242m

    Combined PPS = $457m /242m = $1.88 per share

    So, the combined PPS for 2016 is less than HZNP alone.
    Now add DEPO debt and other expenses that eat up the cash flow.
    However, the most difficult one will be integration of two companies

    Sentiment: Buy

  • No dilution.
    No assets that have single or zero growth.
    Many more opportunities.
    DEPO price was expensive, very expensive.
    I think, this will help HZNP to focus on current business and add other potential acquisitions.
    Hey, we may see one in a short time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    VRX Popping

    by future_is_fiber Nov 19, 2015 3:15 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 19, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    VRX debt was upgraded.
    In addition, CITI analyst says that selling is overdone.
    The pop will happen to HZNP one of these days when an analyst comes to his/her senses and clear cloud for investors.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Apparently, ESRX people do not know the difference between an FDA approved drug or what they can put together some generic without knowing the dosage, side effect and other complication.
    If that was the case then why FDA requires all the expensive testing.
    After all, hospitalization and death of patients are caused by ESRX mentality. That is increasing medical cost for all people in expense of profit for ESRX and CVS PBMs.

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 19, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    This is consolidation period. Big guys are digesting all the events and they are reviewing current CCs.
    CEO and CFO both confirmed guidance and outlook. LC, ES, DEPO are not affecting the current guidance.
    However, any acquisition or FDA approval are not calculated in guidance.
    My point is the current guidance is bare bottom and worst case scenario and many events may affect it positively. We know that one acquisition will be announced by next few weeks. high probability for next week before the tender for DEPO expires. phil_arizona may ask why but that is what I am seeing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Nov 19, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    Both Low and Mid Bollinger Bands have changed direction to upside.
    Low BB is at $14.63 and Mid BB at $18.20. It has been over 7 days that HZNP has been trading above Mid BB ($18.20) and it is confirmed that HZNP will stay above Mid BB and trades between Mid BB ($18.20) and Upper BB ($21.77) in coming days while the band is rising.

    Another factor is 50 DMA which is sitting at $20.35.
    50 DMA is trending down. It will be lowered by an average of $.20 per day for next 7 trading days and then it will be flat around $19, stays flat for 4 trading days and then it will trend up after this period. On the other hand, 50 DMA will start to trend up on Dec 4.
    So, $19 is an important price action and HZNP is making a base at this price for next several days.
    More action around $19 will make it a strong support in near future.

    All above will happen in normal circumstances and any event may change the above prediction.
    For example, if HZNP announces a good acquisition, the price may jump over $22 and probably upset some guys like phil_inarizona since he is thinking that every event should happen 100%.
    I do not know if he understand the probability subject and if he knows that he may get in an accident any day that may cost him his life. Sometime, My 10 years old is telling me that he did this and that but nothing happened until one day happened and he lost his front teeth that cost me $2000 to repair.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 17, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    HZNP does not need to raise its bid since HZNP has many game changers in near future that makes DEPO shareholders happy to be part of HZNP.
    So, tune up and watch HZNP to outperform the market.