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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

veqasfletch2001 137 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 6, 2015 12:37 AM Member since: Sep 12, 2002
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  • 1- EGRX, a startup company, not established, speculative with strong competitor like Purdue.
    2- HZNP, I used to own the stock. Good management but very aggressive that can scare shareholders. Majority of deals that the company made were right on money but there were some mistakes too. Issued too many shares and not much net income so far. With so many issued shares, it may have limited future growth.

    3- DEPO, it is my favorite company with huge current and future growth. It is conservative compare to HZNP. In contrast to HZNP that issued shares under $5, DEPO is trying to keep its standard shares constant. It is paying some interest for borrowing money for its recent acquisition which is better than selling shares at cheap prices.

    After Q1, DEPO has dropped over 20%. However, this is a temporarily situation since DEPO will easily beat the estimates sets aside for this year.
    A quick calculation reveals that DEPO current estimates are very low by any measure.
    Nucynta run rate based on Q1 of 2015 without any price increase is $176m. With zero growth and price increase for 3 quarters, Nucynta revenue for 2015 will be $234m. Adding $150m for legacy DEPO drugs (old estimate was $152m to $162m), the total 2015 revenue will be $384m.
    This number is way above current estimates. Being very conservative, DEPO probably does not want to risk anything. It always can raise the estimates. This is the reason for price recovering sooner or later.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • From this point on, all we see is green and green in the DEPO land.
    Just mark today(7/2/15) which DEPO is trading in mid $20.
    It won't be this cheap by next few months and the end of the year.
    This is not a pump but something that I have seen in many stocks that have been either acquired or zoomed up without looking back like HZNP and SLXP.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nucynta will replace Oxycodone

    by djhmk4 Jul 2, 2015 10:34 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jul 2, 2015 11:58 AM Flag

    This will happen slowly but surely.
    There is pressure to reduce the abuse and addiction which most painkiller have.
    Nucynta has dual action plus it is a strong painkiller but much less abuse and less addiction.
    Back pain and surgery pain and some others should only be relived by Nucynta which was developed for this purpose instead of other drugs like Oxycodone.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 30, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    DEPO is the cheapest stock in its sector and it is the one that has plenty of room to grow.
    Time is in favor of DEPO and we will see the efforts that have been put in the company by people in charge. After all, this is beginning of a long way and people who see it will benefit huge.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 29, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    I wish I had more money to buy but DEPO will recover and more.
    This is a defensive stock and its business is only in USA.
    Pain control never slow down and never goes away in any condition.
    Market is losing 100s of billions for $1B Greece debt.
    People do not think rationally at this moment.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • So, Greece is a long distance and DEPO should not care about Greece or Europe problems.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    hey Jim

    by biomattica Jun 26, 2015 11:37 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 26, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    DEPO managements have a good record of growing ignored drugs. Nucynta is not an unknown drug. JNJ used DEPO ER technology for this drug and DEPO wished to have a drug like Nucynta to make it a blockbuster drug. Do some DD on patients comment regarding this drug and you will see that it is superior compare to other drugs in its category.
    Look at it this way that price increase (over $19.3m based on Q1 Nucynta rev) will cover both the interest payment and new marketing and the rest is a free drug for DEPO that brings big profit for DEPO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    DEPO technical

    by veqasfletch2001 Jun 25, 2015 12:34 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 26, 2015 2:33 PM Flag

    Well, the sector is in red and low volume stocks in the sector are seeing big drops.
    However, technical will win eventually. At this time, DEPO is oversold and it went below its support lines.
    Watch $21.70 and then $21.80. DEPO will go above them today or next week and then continues to go higher.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    DEPO technical

    by veqasfletch2001 Jun 25, 2015 12:34 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 26, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    6/26/27
    Upper BB = $23.09, resistant, becoming rising
    Mid BB = $21.75, support, rising
    Lower BB = $20.41, strong support, rising sharply.
    DMA (120) = $21.81, support, rising
    DMA (50) = $22.57, weak resistant, becoming lower and flat

    6/25/15
    Upper BB = $23.05, resistant, becoming flat
    Mid BB = $21.68, support, rising
    Lower BB = $20.31, strong support, rising.
    DMA (120) = $21.76, support, rising
    DMA (50) = $22.67, weak resistant, becoming flat

    You can see that bottom prices and supports are rising and upper prices become flat.

    So, the short term range is $21.75 to $22.57.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 25, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    Upper BB = $23.05, resistant, becoming flat
    Mid BB = $21.68, support, rising
    Lower BB = $20.31, strong support, rising.
    DMA (120) = $21.76, support, rising
    DMA (50) = $22.67, weak resistant, becoming flat

    Short term: Looking at above, the price action will be between DMA(50) = $22.67 and DMA(120) = $21.76 short term. However, All support lines are rising.

    Mid term: The last run did not fill the Gap completely and of course there were some investors/traders who exited or reduced when the price reached their purchase price between $22 to $23.50. That is completely normal and the end result is that with the next run, there will be no or little resistance. So, mid term or in next run we will see prices around $25.

    Long term: We will see a small stop around $28 bur the price will continue to go higher and off course above $28.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 24, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    That is something that I am sure about.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    $22 is being tested as support today...........

    by djhmk4 Jun 24, 2015 3:32 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 24, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    I agree 100%.
    $22 became a resistant after Q1 report and it was tested a few times until it was broke and became a support.
    So, as today, $22 is a strong support.
    Next to watch is 50 DMA at $22.76. The same as $22, we have to break it another time to make it a good support.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 24, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    We will have some dips that creates opportunity like today.
    I am adding. It will be a long way to $27.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    DEPO Technical

    by veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 12:07 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 17, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    djhmk4,
    I specifically indicated the price action for short( a few days) but for long term (a few months to 1 year) the technical is strong and the bottom is rising. The first action will be to fill the gap to $23 and then prices between $23 and $30 will be here when DEPO shows progress in its quarterly report.

    Anyway, for short term(1 week or so), depending on the market, the low of $20.80 and high of $22 is possible at any day. Keep some dry powder and take advantage of dips.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    DEPO Technical

    by veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 12:07 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 17, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    For today, 2 indicator is worth to watch.
    MA(120) = $21.42, resistant
    Mid BB = $21.10, support
    I market stays flat then above prices will be the trading range.
    If the price breaks up above $21.42 then $22 will be in view.
    If the price breaks $21.10 then we may see lower prices around $2.80.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    Sorry, for #5. Nucynta rev was $176m in 2014, it is expected to go to $265m in 2015 and over $400m in 2016.
    Only opioid treatment approved in past 30 years.
    It works for both regular pain and Neuropathic pain.
    It is much less addictive and has much less side effect compare to other prescribed pain killers.
    DEPO acquired the drug from JNJ for $1.05B in Q1.

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 4:54 PM Flag

    Good for you. You did a wise action.
    Relax and have some patience. Many opportunity will come your way eventually and you need to keep some dry powder to take advantage of it. Now you have more time to do some research and get to stocks that are more stable, trusted management and clear path to success.
    LOOK at DEPO if you like.
    Following is a quick review of the company.
    DEPO has about 6 proven products with long term patents up to 2024 and more. They are expected to generate over $500m in 2016 plus other deals that DEPO is planning to do.
    Positive income for this year and over $1.20 per share of income for 2016
    Almost all products have over 30% growth year over year.
    Excellent and honest management with proven records who care about DEPO shareholders.

    1- Gralise over $75m per year now
    2- CAMBIA *** $30m per year now
    3- Zipsor ***** $27m per year now
    4- Lazanda *** $14m per year now with over 45% growth
    5- Nucynta ( IR & ER) ** $70m per year with 50% growth in 2016 (44% price increase)
    6- Acuform technology or time release which generates royalty income

  • Reply to

    DEPO Technical

    by veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 12:07 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    Well, since DEPO broke up above Mid BB($21.06), the technical has become stronger.
    Basically, It is forming the famous "W" now.
    Action like last Friday happens most of time to handshake May 12 drop and also to form second leg of "W" formation.
    Usually, conservative investors and smart money step in after the second leg is formed. Now, the price is going to Upper BB ($21.94) and higher in near futures or days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2 will include Nucynta sales numbers.

    by vincent_tripi Jun 16, 2015 2:04 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    DEPO announced closing of the deal on April 2 and shipment of NUCYNTA on April 6 with new price.
    So, I say Q2 includes almost all of NUCYNTA sale for Q2.

    The following is from DEPO release:
    Depomed will begin shipping NUCYNTA the week of April 6, reflecting a price adjustment made after closing the deal
    •Quintiles, the contract sales organization that promoted the NUCYNTA franchise for Janssen, will continue to support these products for Depomed from now until re-launch in June
    •Depomed expects its expanded sales force supporting NUCYNTA, Gralise, Cambia and Zipsor to be fully deployed at re-launch
    •Depomed will introduce new product positioning and marketing support focusing on the uniqueness of the molecule and its dual mechanism of action (MOA)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • It seems that specialty biopharma companies were up yesterday and down today altogether but they are recovering from their lows.
    ENDP ran strong yesterday and down today. HZNP, PFE, SNY and other companies in the sector are in red. Hopefully, they recover by end of the day.

    Sentiment: Buy

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