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Валгрин Ко. Message Board

veqasfletch2001 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 27, 2016 12:44 PM Member since: Sep 12, 2002
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  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 23, 2016 3:49 PM Flag

    $20 will be achieved this year.

  • Stay with developers.

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 23, 2016 2:27 PM Flag

    Good day to buy ACOR which putting 34% of its revenue in R&D. HZNP puts only 5%.
    SCMP is also a good one with 20% of rev goes to R&D. Tim is sitting in SCMP board.
    DEPO also is a stable company with potential.

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 23, 2016 2:21 PM Flag

    I cannot believe that ACOR is trading at current prices.
    34% of revenue goes to R&D and that is a huge investment that will reward the company in near and far future.

  • Reply to

    HZNP 40/50 $

    by alfredopagliacci Mar 9, 2016 2:58 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Mar 10, 2016 12:00 PM Flag

    I take slow growth over unpredictable growth.
    DEPO may go slowly but it is careful to avoid big problem and this is one nature of any pharma company.
    1- DEPO is a US company and pays its share of taxes to US government instead of hiding in a foreign country.
    2- DEPO has not raised its prices astronomically to upset people.
    3-DEPO has kept its low share outstanding at constant in past several years.
    4- DEPO debt is not any issue anymore since DEPO can have close to $500m by the end of 2016.
    5- Nucynta growth will exceed by targeting new patients.
    6- DEPO new drug development is going well.

    By the early next year, DEPO will have enough money to cut its debt and have enough cash for new acquisition.
    Having low debt means low interest payment and higher income.
    Higher income with low share outstanding means visibility to rock the market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HZNP 40/50 $

    by alfredopagliacci Mar 9, 2016 2:58 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Mar 9, 2016 11:32 PM Flag

    Exactly, why are you here in first place. This is DEPO board and why a HZNP poster come here to advertise for HZNP.
    Since you are here then you should know that DEPO will outperform HZNP in the long run and there are many reasons for my argument. After all, DEPO investors will not see the company fumbles what they will achieve in future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    HZNP 40/50 $

    by alfredopagliacci Mar 9, 2016 2:58 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Mar 9, 2016 4:18 PM Flag

    So, you think that the bank will quit its normal business and buy HZNP to becomes a pharma company just because it owns 81k shares. Heck I used to have 110k shares of HZNP and nobody said the same about me.
    I sold almost all of my HZNP shares and bought DEPO shares and I am not planning to do the same things that HZNP and TW did to DEPO, you know what I mean, do you?
    Just remember one point that buying HZNP means a lot of headache dealing with legal stuff, litigation and investigation. A better buy will be DEPO which is as clean as whistle.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 9, 2016 12:44 PM Flag

    Being a conservative company is paying off. Most other similar companies are facing litigation, investigation and many other problems because of their fast growth and because of cutting corners or being greedy to show growth.
    DEPO has avoided those problems and it is building a solid foundation for the company.
    Number of DEPO shares has stayed in 60M+ in past several years. keep shares low will help future income significantly.
    DEPO debt is manageable. Total debt is $806. DEPO has $210m cash as Dec 2015 and now above $250.
    So, debt to cash is only 3.2 while most companies in the sector is double digit. Basically, $550m is the one DEPO wants to pay off as soon as possible to save huge interest payment. This is significant since DEPO has small share outstanding then by paying debt, the income will rise significantly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 8, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    DEPO is not hiding in Ireland to avoid taxes. And it is not gouging its prices and facing any ligation. It is growing at smaller pace but a good one. It is keeping its shares low and that will rewarding in future.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 8, 2016 3:28 PM Flag

    ENDP is facing several litigation, several high fines and other problems. Analysts are cutting its target significantly. In addition to those problems, its debt is 30 times its cash and it is an Ireland company.

    On the other hand, DEPO is a clean US company with less debt less than 3 times its cash. Not such problem as litigation or fine. It is not a price gouger like other companies. It is an honest tax paying US company that is growing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 8, 2016 2:42 PM Flag

    DEPO actual debt with high interest rate is $550m. However, DEPO reported $210m cash at the end of 2015 and probably over $250 as today.
    So, debt and high interest rate can be managed easily this year and next year. Based on DEPO, $100m will be shaved off from the debt this year which adds $2.65m to DEPO net income per quarter. This will translates to $.04 pennies per quarter and $.16 per year for 2016. In 2017, DEPO can do much better and it can shave off most of its debt and show a strong balance sheet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    DEPO 10 $

    by alfredopagliacci Feb 23, 2016 12:16 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Mar 7, 2016 11:55 AM Flag

    You are wasting your time here since DEPO is very undervalued at current prices.
    Remember that time is in favor of DEPO and every dollar added is significant since DEPO can shave off its high interest rate and increases its income as debt goes down. Another choice for DEPO is to put money toward a new drug and refinance its debt at lower rate this year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 4, 2016 2:37 PM Flag

    On daily bases, 50 DMA is sitting at $16.36 and it is the only resistance to overcome to get to upper BB at $18.04.
    On weekly bases, mid BB is at $17.35 and the stock needs to overcome this resistance to go to upper BB at $20.22.

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 4, 2016 2:10 PM Flag

    1- Publicity: DEPO is realistic about its growth and it does not cut the corners or pressure the system with high prices.
    2- DEPO does not issue shares to show growth in contrast to some companies that issue shares to get some growth. Future belongs to conservative companies that keep their shares low.
    3- DEPO is accumulating cash and so far $210m as December 2015. This cash is very meaningful since it can be used to reduce debt or buyback some of its bonds or buy new drugs.
    4- DEPO has started drug development which will add significantly to its future growth.

    Phaco may be conservative and slow mover but it does not get in troubles for price gouging and other problems that other speedy companies are facing since they are making more mistakes.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 3, 2016 4:53 PM Flag

    HZNP looks like mirage. Even if it gain some points by accident or market cheer, it is easy to lose them all and more since the recent events and on going investigation has put a chain on HZNP leg.

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 3, 2016 3:34 PM Flag

    DEPO is in very good shape. It hit lower BB at $14.80 a few days ago and rebounded up to go to its resistance at $16.42 or mid BB.
    Unfortunately, HZNP is working in reverse order which means mid BB was met a few days days ago but it could not pass it and now it is heading to lower BB around $15.50 which is its support.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Mar 3, 2016 3:22 PM Flag

    HZNP already hit its resistant at 17.60 (mid bollinger band) and it could not pass it so it is heading down to touch its support level at $15.56 (lower bollinger band).
    DEPO already hit it support level at $14.80 (lower bollinger band) and it is heading up to meet its resistance at $16.42 (mid bollinger band).

    Now, you decide where you want to be.

  • Purpose of this post is to compare DEPO and HZNP while the prices are (HZNP = $17.50 and DEPO = $15).
    1- Well, HZNP wanted DEPO at $.95 per share or at current prices = $16.62 for DEPO. So, even in HZNP view, DEPO deserves to be $16.62 instead of $15 at this point.
    2- Another reason for HZNP interest in DEPO is DEPO stability and great future.
    3- One argument of HZNP for getting DEPO shares cheap was DEPO $550m debt at 10.5% and of course DEPO had minimum cash like $60m at that time. But, the situation has changed and DEPO has $210m cash now and it is adding $60m or so cash per quarter. By end of this year, DEPO cash will be around $450m which is able to reduce debt and also refinance its debt at much lower interest rate. We are talking about saving of $50m to $55m of interest payment which will translates to either adding $.90 of net income or use the cash for new acquisition which speeds up the growth.
    4- DEPO has only 60m shares and it tries to keep them low. This is very significant when it comes to market cap and also increasing income while HZNP already at 160m and shares are going up carelessly.
    5- HZNP has grown fast on back of price increases and issue shares. However, those methods are causing problems for HZNP now while DEPO stayed clear from those models.
    6- Both HZNP and DEPO are doing some developments and results will be speculative.
    7- HZNP is like a car that took off early but it has reached its potential while DEPO is at start of its take off with better engine and it is expected to have much better speed than HZNP in future.
    8- HZNP is facing different investigation, lawsuit from ES and it may get more lawsuits and investigation because of its business model. On the other hand, DEPO is more conservative and aware of all above problems and tried to stay clear from indicated problems.
    9- Bottom line, investing in DEPO will be more peaceful and calm while HZNP will be rocky and it needs iron nerves to hold it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    HZNP sold all its DEPO shares

    by veqasfletch2001 Mar 1, 2016 12:58 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Mar 2, 2016 1:00 PM Flag

    First of all, I was holding HZNP until Feb 26 which I unloaded most of my HZNP shares with a gain and started to step in DEPO.
    Second, as I indicated a few days ago, DEPO offers better opportunity at current prices. After all, investors don't need to be worry about negative events (investigation...) which HZNP is facing and it may hit the wires at any day.
    Third, HZNP not only is facing investigation but also its hands are tightened for price increase from this point on and it cannot act free like before and raise the prices. As a matter of fact, HZNP will be forced to either lower the prices significantly or be denied by most or all insurance companies.
    Forth, DEPO has passed its hard part of rocky income. With $210m cash in the bank and adding about $60m cash per quarter, it can easily reduce its debt every quarter. Reducing debt for DEPO is very meaningful since every $100m will add about $10m of net income or $.15 per share. This is advantage of having low standard shares which can increase DEPO income significantly in a short time.

    So, quit nonsense and look at facts. You want to make money, DEPO offers is better than HZNP at this point.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    HZNP sold all its DEPO shares

    by veqasfletch2001 Mar 1, 2016 12:58 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Mar 1, 2016 11:28 PM Flag

    HZNP got $19.02 but not $19.45 for DEPO shares. Probably, HZNP was forced to sell the shares as part of settlement to be completely disconnected from DEPO.
    However, HZNP lost $29 because of its wrong assumption.
    DEPO may be down in this environment but it will rise one way or another. DEPO is planning to pay off $100m of its debt.This action will save DEPO at least $10m per year and adds at least $.15 to its income for 2016.

WAG
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