335 m shares have been have been traded since December 20 (just a few trading days). Over 99% of these 335 m shares were traded above $6.50. 335 m shares are almost twice all outstanding shares. So, almost most outstanding shares were in transition in past few days with bases above $6.50. That means a lot of buy and sell, but most exiting shares went to strong hands with bases higher than $6.50 who want to hold the shares for longer term or at least prices above $10. Those who wanted to be out already exited above $7. Tax sellers did not wait for prices under $7 and they already sold above $7. Most current shareholders have bases around $7. I was surprised with Friday action and it was an opportunist act by short sellers who triggered some stop losses. This cannot be repeated since short sellers are out of ammunition. They have to cover sooner or later and if some institutions step in then they are in real trouble.
Bottom line, don't wait for prices under $6.50 since anyone who sells at current prices must be very naive.
I can say that ARIA will be above $7 by next week. This is based on all of existing facts unless a very bad news come our way which is very very rare.
Sum of US + EU patients is 5100 so far. A modest price increase in Iclusig bump the price to $130k per year per patient and each patient may stay on the drug for 10 years.
5100 * $130k = $663 m revenue per year without extending labels and only us and eu.
However, most paused clinical of Iclusig to extend labels will start in 2014. In addition, Japan and other countries will approve the drug.
Based on ARIA CEO, more patients have been added daily as soon as their doctors see the need.
Inclusig drug cost is very cheap(1%). Also, marketing of Iclusig is a fraction of other drugs since the number of patients are limited and known.
I bought above $7 and I am not worry at all. On the other hand, if it stays at current prices or drops I will add more to bring my average down. Meanwhile, the price will rise again and again with more news. ARIA is on roll and it will rise to near prices of last September since FDA nightmare is history now.
ARIA trend is upward because of its fundamentals and any obstacle will be flatten in its way to higher prices. This is not just for one or two days but it is a trend that will continue for weeks and months more or less until the goal is achieved. There are some traders/investors who are satisfied with a small gain and they will exit as the price rises but ARIA has a long way to go and the direction is pointing to north.
Current cost per patient is $115k per year but it has been increased.
Just 10,000 patients (us + EU + other countries) produce $1.15 B.
Cost of good is just less than 2%.
Put 13% for marketing.. We are talking about $1B profit per year.
I do not know what you are talking about but look at Rig Triumph and check columns "Ddays" and "Date" for Jan 2014 and then compare them to December 2013 fleet report. You see that the contract was extended by almost 3 months.
If you or the analyst could not read it then no one can do anything for your mind and eyes.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Do not worry. Any person with brain can conclude that out of three pharma companies, only ARIA got the FDA approval yet it has not gotten the price it deserves. ACHN and AMRN recovered some even they didd not get FDA approval.
Thus, ARIA deserves much better price and it will get it eventually. That why investors should have some patience with ARIA to be rewarded.
Bofa analyst was so mad on the day that ARIA had Its CC that she could not hide it. She was the only analyst who was not happy about FDA approval and deal. She was so mad that she did not respond when ARIA CEO asked her if her question was answered.
Since not much is changed after FDA revers itself regarding Iclusig.
We know that around 20% of shares are shorted. Some shorts are for hedging purposes but some are for trading, opportunist trading. Those shorts constantly are looking for opportunity to trade or even manipulate by triggering the stop losses. If you need to sell then sell with better prices. Do not let shorts to force you in selling since most of times the price will rise much higher the price you set your stop losses.
It is a good idea to keep some dry powder in case a stock drops extremely but keep in mind that there is a limit to everything.
A smart man is the one who knows the limits. However, no one ever can predict the exact bottom or exact top. The best thing is to buy at different prices and average out. Those who are looking for homerun may never get it. Those who are looking for single and double are mostly get it and are successful.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well, open your eyes. Take a look at big guys in the sector for drillers (RIG, DO, NE...). They all are trading in red. That is the reason for HERO to saty flat today. I say HERO is doing well today. With the same token, we may see that HERO seperates itself befopre close today and jumps over $5.90.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
ACA (Obama care) provide insurance at low cost for patients with low income. There are some organizations that help too. No patient should be ignored for treatment.
You must be an idiot.
More brainless than the other village idiot mike.
You are not taxed when you guys throw some numbers. Any 5 years old can throw the same numbers without any reasoning.