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veqasfletch2001 40 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 6, 2015 12:37 AM Member since: Sep 12, 2002
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  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 5, 2015 11:38 AM Flag

    If Armistice did not buy all these shares then the price could have been at low $5 or lower.
    However, SPPI has been vaccinated against activists and it has resistance against Armistice.
    Armistice is not dealing with SPPI management but also other brokerages and bondholders which may see Armistice as an enemy. Now if Armistice sees useless fight then it will dump its shares and that will be a disaster for retail shareholders.

  • 1- EGRX, a startup company, not established, speculative with strong competitor like Purdue.
    2- HZNP, I used to own the stock. Good management but very aggressive that can scare shareholders. Majority of deals that the company made were right on money but there were some mistakes too. Issued too many shares and not much net income so far. With so many issued shares, it may have limited future growth.

    3- DEPO, it is my favorite company with huge current and future growth. It is conservative compare to HZNP. In contrast to HZNP that issued shares under $5, DEPO is trying to keep its standard shares constant. It is paying some interest for borrowing money for its recent acquisition which is better than selling shares at cheap prices.

    After Q1, DEPO has dropped over 20%. However, this is a temporarily situation since DEPO will easily beat the estimates sets aside for this year.
    A quick calculation reveals that DEPO current estimates are very low by any measure.
    Nucynta run rate based on Q1 of 2015 without any price increase is $176m. With zero growth and price increase for 3 quarters, Nucynta revenue for 2015 will be $234m. Adding $150m for legacy DEPO drugs (old estimate was $152m to $162m), the total 2015 revenue will be $384m.
    This number is way above current estimates. Being very conservative, DEPO probably does not want to risk anything. It always can raise the estimates. This is the reason for price recovering sooner or later.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 5, 2015 11:18 AM Flag

    The Bollinger Bands are converging and the price has stayed above Mid BB($21.10) in past 4 trading days. This is an indication of a breakout in near future. Since the price has stayed above mid BB the breakout will be to the upside.
    Currently Mid BB acts as support and Upper BB ($23.33) acts as resistant. However, there is another resistant, SMA(100) = $22.05, in the way.
    It may need a few trading days to pass $22 and then this become a support level when the price zooms up.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 13, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    I think DEPO best asset is its management who are doing the best job by creating value for the company and its shareholders. After all, company has avoided share dilution in contrast to other companies that followed the same path like HZNP. Both DEPO and HZNP started at low single digit price but thru smart acquisitions and deals raised their PPS over $20. HZNP did it with more activity which stands at $32 price now. However, it tripled its share numbers to 155m and more. This may slow down its future growth while DEPO still stands around 60m shares while generating more income. DEPO looks like SLXP which went from $5 to $178 just doing what DEPO is doing now.
    My conclusion is that DEPO is a gem and it will create significant value for its shareholders in near and far future regardless of the market direction. If a shareholder times his/her trade to acquire a good stock at good and low price, that is this time for DEPO that is going thru a transition and the price has been lowered because of this short term negativity. After passing this transition period and Q2, all we will see is progress and good news that pushes the stock price above current HZNP price of $32. Fortunately, DEPO is looking more to be SLXP type of organization and eventually prices over $100 likely possible in next few years.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Yahoo has updated DEPO estimates after 2 new analysts have started coverage on DEPO and so estimates have been adjusted based on new numbers.
    Not a significant change but more realistic based on what the company predicted after Q1 earnings and following CCs. The company has repeated DEPO estimate between $310m to $335 revenue for 2015(average to $322.5m) which analysts put it at high end around $329. However, analysts raised overall income for both 2015 and 2016. Q2 rev/income estimates were lowered but Q3 and Q4 were raised. Overall, they added 2 pennies to 2015 and 3 pennies to 2016 income even though Q2 income was lowered. This is more positive than any negative that may contribute to Friday’s action.
    Q2 is a transition period from old DEPO to new DEPO with some onetime charges that priced in Q2 income but cash flow will be good. The new Q2 estimates probably affected some small traders with short term view who panicked and sold some shares in a red market on last Friday.
    I was watching the price action on Friday. Most of the day, the stock was above $21 and volume was around 400k. All the sudden some opportunists triggered stop losses with 100k and pushed price to lows of the day. Then the rest of action was to buy or short cover (most of volume) which contributed to current volume.) Still low volume compares to average volume but some traces of panic and manipulation was obvious.
    I was looking at current DEPO consensus which put Q4 income at $.24 and Q1 2016 at $.34 (consensus are higher now). It is expected that the company will generate significant cash flow which eventually leads to more acquisitions and growth.
    So far, DEPO management has shown some smart moves and all the acquisitions have been right on the money. I think the trend will continue and as soon as DEPO passes this short period of transition and more money comes to the company then we will see more smart acquisitions again.
    Continues---

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 12, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    Upper BB = $21.99, resistant, trending lower now but becomes flat soon.
    Mid BB = $21.03, support, trending up now but becomes flat soon.
    Lower BB = $20.08, strong support, trending up.
    MA(50) = $23.09, strong resistant

    MA(120) = $21.29. This is the line that DEPO has followed in past 22 trading days since Q1 earnings report.
    The price movement has been around this line and it will probably around it in near future.
    Mid BB = $21.03 has also been a good support and it will held for today. The price will be somewhere between $21.03 to $21.29 today.

  • Reply to

    DEPO Technical

    by veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 12:07 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    Well, since DEPO broke up above Mid BB($21.06), the technical has become stronger.
    Basically, It is forming the famous "W" now.
    Action like last Friday happens most of time to handshake May 12 drop and also to form second leg of "W" formation.
    Usually, conservative investors and smart money step in after the second leg is formed. Now, the price is going to Upper BB ($21.94) and higher in near futures or days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 24, 2015 3:57 PM Flag

    That is something that I am sure about.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 29, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    I wish I had more money to buy but DEPO will recover and more.
    This is a defensive stock and its business is only in USA.
    Pain control never slow down and never goes away in any condition.
    Market is losing 100s of billions for $1B Greece debt.
    People do not think rationally at this moment.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 25, 2015 12:34 PM Flag

    Upper BB = $23.05, resistant, becoming flat
    Mid BB = $21.68, support, rising
    Lower BB = $20.31, strong support, rising.
    DMA (120) = $21.76, support, rising
    DMA (50) = $22.67, weak resistant, becoming flat

    Short term: Looking at above, the price action will be between DMA(50) = $22.67 and DMA(120) = $21.76 short term. However, All support lines are rising.

    Mid term: The last run did not fill the Gap completely and of course there were some investors/traders who exited or reduced when the price reached their purchase price between $22 to $23.50. That is completely normal and the end result is that with the next run, there will be no or little resistance. So, mid term or in next run we will see prices around $25.

    Long term: We will see a small stop around $28 bur the price will continue to go higher and off course above $28.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 30, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    DEPO is the cheapest stock in its sector and it is the one that has plenty of room to grow.
    Time is in favor of DEPO and we will see the efforts that have been put in the company by people in charge. After all, this is beginning of a long way and people who see it will benefit huge.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 3, 2015 11:48 AM Flag

    SMA(50) = $23.23 resistant
    SMA(100) = $21.98 weak resistant
    Upper Bollinger Band = $24.05 strong resistant
    Mid Bollinger Band = $21.33 support

    So, today, $21.33 support to $21.98 resistant was traveled.
    I believe that DEPO will overcome the weak resistant around $22 and it will zoom up to next level. Next resistant is around $23.23.
    In past 14 trading days, we had 3 red days, 3 flat days and 8 positive days. This is an indication of a positive trend and accumulation. DEPO technical is getting stronger and the stock is in its way to $26 by next few months and $32 by the end of this year and early next year.
    Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nucynta launch was delayed

    by short_is_good_baboly Jun 4, 2015 1:08 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 4, 2015 8:49 PM Flag

    It does not matter if new Ddepomed or previous JNJ team are selling the drug as long as they are selling it. Well, the price is 44% higher and JNJ team are more experienced until new team comes to speed.
    As a matter of fact, this is a good nerws that previous team are still selling the ddrug.

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 11, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Two indicators should be watched as follow:
    MA(120) = $21.25, support, trending up
    MA(50) = $23.12, resistant, trending down and almost flat.
    The price action will be bond in above numbers for next few weeks but the support is trending up and it will be around $21.50 by a week or so. Any price below $21.50 is a bargain.
    Now, all Bollinger Bands convergence is done and it is trending up.
    Upper BB = $22.04 resistant, trending up.
    Mid BB = $20.98 support, trending up.
    So, as we close to end of Q2 (3 weeks) the above numbers will go higher for new price action.

    Good luck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 12:07 PM Flag

    The following are short term technical for DEPO
    Lower BB = $20.19, strong support, trending up
    Mid BB = $21.06, weak resistant, flat
    Upper BB = $21.94, trending down
    MA(120) = $21.37, average price since earnings report, trending up
    MA(50) = $23.01, resistant, trending down

    So, for today, the range is $21.06(Mid BB) to $20.66(MA137) .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Q2 will include Nucynta sales numbers.

    by vincent_tripi Jun 16, 2015 2:04 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 16, 2015 1:04 PM Flag

    DEPO announced closing of the deal on April 2 and shipment of NUCYNTA on April 6 with new price.
    So, I say Q2 includes almost all of NUCYNTA sale for Q2.

    The following is from DEPO release:
    Depomed will begin shipping NUCYNTA the week of April 6, reflecting a price adjustment made after closing the deal
    •Quintiles, the contract sales organization that promoted the NUCYNTA franchise for Janssen, will continue to support these products for Depomed from now until re-launch in June
    •Depomed expects its expanded sales force supporting NUCYNTA, Gralise, Cambia and Zipsor to be fully deployed at re-launch
    •Depomed will introduce new product positioning and marketing support focusing on the uniqueness of the molecule and its dual mechanism of action (MOA)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jun 24, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    We will have some dips that creates opportunity like today.
    I am adding. It will be a long way to $27.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    DEPO technical

    by veqasfletch2001 Jun 25, 2015 12:34 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 26, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    6/26/27
    Upper BB = $23.09, resistant, becoming rising
    Mid BB = $21.75, support, rising
    Lower BB = $20.41, strong support, rising sharply.
    DMA (120) = $21.81, support, rising
    DMA (50) = $22.57, weak resistant, becoming lower and flat

    6/25/15
    Upper BB = $23.05, resistant, becoming flat
    Mid BB = $21.68, support, rising
    Lower BB = $20.31, strong support, rising.
    DMA (120) = $21.76, support, rising
    DMA (50) = $22.67, weak resistant, becoming flat

    You can see that bottom prices and supports are rising and upper prices become flat.

    So, the short term range is $21.75 to $22.57.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    hey Jim

    by biomattica Jun 26, 2015 11:37 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jun 26, 2015 3:22 PM Flag

    DEPO managements have a good record of growing ignored drugs. Nucynta is not an unknown drug. JNJ used DEPO ER technology for this drug and DEPO wished to have a drug like Nucynta to make it a blockbuster drug. Do some DD on patients comment regarding this drug and you will see that it is superior compare to other drugs in its category.
    Look at it this way that price increase (over $19.3m based on Q1 Nucynta rev) will cover both the interest payment and new marketing and the rest is a free drug for DEPO that brings big profit for DEPO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • So, Greece is a long distance and DEPO should not care about Greece or Europe problems.

    Sentiment: Buy

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