Not only Japan revenue will an up lift, Switzerland also will get more rev since limitations were reomoved and also Amitiza will be sold in UK starting this quarter.
The pipeleine is very active and busy, so R&D revenue may not change that much if any. It ranged from $2.5 m to $11.4 m in the past. $3 seems to be the bottom.
If we close above $8.10 today, then we will have an intersting Monday next week.
First level is $12.26 is Mid Bolinger Band, the second level is Low Bollinger Band and also 50 day MA.
The price got close to Mid BB twice in past few days but rebounded, The third time may break it eventually to test Low BB. Don't get upset if you don't like this technical but it should not be one way street all the time.
I do not own any HZNP but used to hold a lot of shares. I am watching it while I am holding SCMP and a few others.
Not expecting to get all indications in some EU countries. the market is very small in some of EU countries anyway. SCMP may try other countries with better data since US has approved it.
By the way, there is an openning from last year for a Financial Analyst.
Hope SCMP can hire someone with knowledge and one who can work indepently and familar with different software and tools.
It is nice if SCMP replaces CFO too.
I reviewed some of his works and I did not approve some of them.
When a company gets a chunck of money (usually in this field), this money should be recognized in a few quarters but not the quarter it recieves it. This is a basic work for a CFO to show balanced income. This CFO, instead plays with taxes which is limited.
However, the biggest mistake is lack of the guidance. The market/analysts/investors hate when a company does not guide. Look at Q4 and the beat SCMP did in regards to revenue and income where all analysts hinted excellent but none of them followed up or commented since the company was unable to guide even we were in the middle of Q1 quarter.
Bottom line, the CFO is weak and the company needs to address this weakness.
This company has all ingredients of a rare medical company that can rock to high double digit price eventually.
Dr U needs to lighten up and let the company gets to its potential.
The company tries to separate itself from Dr U by hiring new CEO.
Now, the new CEO needs to create more liquidity. The share buyback is the only solution. Issue a bond and use the money to buyback the shares, my be Dr U shares.
We may get it on ROTH CC on Mar 10.
There is high possibility that current estimates will be raised since the current estimates are leftover from Q3.
These are the reasons for higher estimates:
1- Amitiza OIC indication prescriptions (for pain reduction) have been up 31% month to month in past 8 months.
2- Amitiza is been sold in UK and Switzerland (all 3 indications with no restriction) since beginning of this quarter.
3- Q4 (2013) revenue and income ramp momentum will continue in Q1 2014.
4- Rescula launch and marketing expenses will be lowered.
5- Japan and US Amitiza sale will be better (higher prices more prescriptions like Q4).
6- Finally, if Q4 rev was $24.5 m and net income was $.05 then Q1(2014) rev should be at least $26 m and $.07 to $.09 net income.
Mike you say "A bunch of broken stochastics!?". I hoped you read both sides of a paper but only the shiny and happy parts.
So, this is a very cheap price to pay if he can push the price to $16. I believe he can and he deserves to get paid for his efforts.
Mid Bollinger Band is sitting at $11.41 and this is the support. Of course, HZNP will not drop to its support in one day but it drip and also Mid BB will rise at the same time. So, I say high $11 will be the support but if it breaks Mid BB then we are looking at Low BB at $9 or 50 day MA at $9.61. Volume is the key here. High volume is indication of smart money is taking action before others.
For SCMP, it is not that much of indication since a 2k shares can swing 20 cents in the price since there is not much float.
I got HZNP in mid $6 and I was happy with my gain. Exited mostly around $10 and higher and switched to SCMP witch has much higher income and growth while forward PE is only 13. But the most thing that I am excited about SCMP is new CEO, Peter Greenleaf who has over 20 years of proven experience in sale and marketing and also SCMP pipeline with at least 3 drugs in phase III and a few other in phase II amd I plus 2 approved drugs, only 42 m shares with plenty of cash ($96 m), positive income for 2013, 2014...2016 income will be over $1 per share.
Peter was MEDI (medimmune) CEO and AZN bought MEDI for over $15 B.
Peter is expert at sale and marketing and this is what SCMP needs.
On the other hand, Peter was hired to develop SCPM and find a buyer. SCMP has several drugs in phase 3 and 2 and 1 (at least 3 in phase 3) for digestive issues and eye treatments.
Shareholders should be happy to see SCPM market cap at a few billions in future.
I am sorry to say this. HZNP is at its top and it may drop to its valuation price around $10. Long term may go higher in few years if management execute.
I started putting money in SCMP a few days ago and today also added more even though is up 15%.
$20 is my target for SCMP and look at its income and the pipe line. So rich so promising with very low float. This is easy $20 stock trading at $9.
What the hell you are talking about. The price of the company is over $1.5 billion. You cannot find any small medical company with so many promising pipe line and 2 important approved drugs.
CEO change was a good strategy that benefit the company, CEO and all shareholders.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Took my profit from HZNP and put it in SCMP. Very rich pipe line with 2 approved drugs here in us, eu and Japan. A few more in phase III and phase II.
Reported yesterday and it will fly today.
Can the new company handle it and produce any meaningful earnings?
Both of them are barely making it. Now their income combine should be divided by a large number of shares. It seems to get much smaller income. The price may go down to $4 or $3 in future.
"Wait, are you serious about going through with all that? like you really believe people have been doing this?"
It cost a friend of mine $300k a few years ago, Just google same casest. There are many of them.
After all, this is not freedom of speech when you hurt other people and you do not act on you on.