335 m shares have been have been traded since December 20 (just a few trading days). Over 99% of these 335 m shares were traded above $6.50. 335 m shares are almost twice all outstanding shares. So, almost most outstanding shares were in transition in past few days with bases above $6.50. That means a lot of buy and sell, but most exiting shares went to strong hands with bases higher than $6.50 who want to hold the shares for longer term or at least prices above $10. Those who wanted to be out already exited above $7. Tax sellers did not wait for prices under $7 and they already sold above $7. Most current shareholders have bases around $7. I was surprised with Friday action and it was an opportunist act by short sellers who triggered some stop losses. This cannot be repeated since short sellers are out of ammunition. They have to cover sooner or later and if some institutions step in then they are in real trouble.
Bottom line, don't wait for prices under $6.50 since anyone who sells at current prices must be very naive.
I can say that ARIA will be above $7 by next week. This is based on all of existing facts unless a very bad news come our way which is very very rare.
I bought above $7 and I am not worry at all. On the other hand, if it stays at current prices or drops I will add more to bring my average down. Meanwhile, the price will rise again and again with more news. ARIA is on roll and it will rise to near prices of last September since FDA nightmare is history now.
Pb has been a great contributor here. I enjoyed his posts.
I stepped in HZNP under $7 and plan to hold my core.
I also stepped in ARIA after FDA allowed it to commercialize it cancer drug Iclusig again. Besides, ARIA has a very strong pipeline and it is target of acquisition. ARIA used to trade above $20 before October 2013 until FDA suspended Iclusig in mid October and the stock plunged to low single digit. Fortunately, most doctors and patients objected to FDA and finally FDA allowed it to the market again but with new labels.
Well, if ARIA was traded as high as $26 before FDA interference then it can go at least to mid point or $13 (doubling current price) now that FDA concern is cleared with labeling changes.
Outstanding shares are only 185 m and about 90% belong to institutions and insiders. So, only 18 m left in hands of retails plus the shares that are shorted.
Out of 330 m sharers that have been traded at least 1/3 or 100m are in hands of new investors like myself who are not willing to sell below $7. The rest are in hands of institutions and insiders.
Shorts have no choice to cover in next 2 trading days before this stock zoom to much higher prices.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Bofa analyst was so mad on the day that ARIA had Its CC that she could not hide it. She was the only analyst who was not happy about FDA approval and deal. She was so mad that she did not respond when ARIA CEO asked her if her question was answered.
These days shorts work together to manipulate a stock. Obvious example is last Friday. There was a careful plan started just a few minutes before the market open. A group of shorts worked together and shorted millions of shares in a way that the stock did not get a chance to fight back. This is not supply and demand. This is manipulation. Unfortunately SEC is weak to deal with them.
ARIA will continue some of previous paused clinical besides relaunching of Iclusig in us.
Several good news in January and February.
Do not worry. Any person with brain can conclude that out of three pharma companies, only ARIA got the FDA approval yet it has not gotten the price it deserves. ACHN and AMRN recovered some even they didd not get FDA approval.
Thus, ARIA deserves much better price and it will get it eventually. That why investors should have some patience with ARIA to be rewarded.
Bleeding will stop. It will get close to $7.
This a stock that investors will appreciate in 2014. Institutions investors know it too. Since FDA obstacle is out of the way then the stock may rise sharply one of these days.
This is a problem that sometimes bites me. When I like a stock, I go heavy and margin. I put all my eggs in one basket and watch the basket carefully. Just 2 month ago, I lost over $400k in a matter of 20 minutes.
I also was heavy in hznp until last Friday until my broker called me ands said their risk assessment my change the margin requirement for hznp from 50% to 75% without any notice and then sell portion of my holding at market order. I thought my broker may not be honest and he wants to shake some shares for somebody. I sold about 40k last Friday to reduce my margin. To reduce my concentration of one stock, I bought some sharers of ARIA . How nice if hznp merge with ARIA. HZNP marketing and ARIA new cancer drug will be a match in heaven.
My broker called me this morning and asked me to reduce some of my hz shares from my margin account.
I just argued with them . The broker was saying that too much concentration in one stock and they have to reduce the margin by 25%. Anyway, I switch sold some of my margin but I bought. ARIA.
Still holding the core but ARIA is a good one too.
Over 10m shares have been traded around $7,10, the largest in past month.
All we need is to close above $7.30 today.
Most recent funds bought HZ around $7.10 or higher after HZ was added to biotech index.
We are heading to $8 now.
I am thinking that HZNP itself is target of acquisition since it has become a marketing power. Many small and mid cap companies are weak at marketing even though they have good products. Having HZNP saves them a lot of marketing and also their products will add 3 more so they become diversified.
It is not late to pay a price between $10 to $15 now before HZNP keeps going up to much higher prices.
I look at SCMP and ACRX that already keep going up daily. This will happen to HZNP too.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I don't think the counterparties are doing any thing stupid. They probably buy the shares at any opportunity since if they cannot make money by shorting then they can make it by going long. Of course, there will be some losers who are not quick enough to realize their mistakes.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Time is in favor of us.
You see, HZNP was added to NBI index. I think that may scare short sellers a little bit, but when other news like Q4 earnings is released and all the sudden Yahoo updates 2014-2015d and 2013 negative income is history then HZNP will attrack investors with no effort . Remember that 2015 income estimate is $.52 right now but I think HZNP will bump estimates higher and higher quarter after quarter.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Well don't forget these words from TW:
"We also continue to seek new product or company acquisitions that will allow us to further leverage our business model and maximize our commercial infrastructure, creating increased value for our shareholders."
"And then as we move forward, look for incremental products that fit into our business model and expanded commercial infrastructure focus on the primary care audience. So we certainly expect to look forward continued product and/or company acquisitions. We think we have an unique position where one of the few companies that has infrastructure maximizing the primary care space, whereas most companies are looking at the specialty space. So we think we’ve got the unique business model, unique focus, and we’re going to continue to pursue that."
Although HZNP will aquire new products, other companies, it may be merged or aquired by a larger company or a private investmet firm, the same thing that happened to PAR pharma since the focus is not based on one or two producrs but several of them.