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SunTrust Banks, Inc. Message Board

veqasfletch2001 60 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 31, 2016 1:55 AM Member since: Sep 12, 2002
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  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jan 31, 2016 1:55 AM Flag

    I could retire rich if I just bet against your predictions, vette.

  • Reply to

    $55 will be visit in 2016

    by veqasfletch2001 Jan 3, 2016 10:07 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jan 4, 2016 12:30 AM Flag

    Huh, $23 was conquered on December 23 and it will be repeated soon easily and strongly to make it history. The stock is looking at $27 dude, you are living in the past. As HZNP CFO said once after Q3 earnings, HZNP is not the same company as you saw 3 month ago and even a month ago. There are so much progress in the company that every month is different for better company. Real investors should see this fact based on changes on estimates that almost happen every week and every month. HZNP income have been rising from $1.40 to $1.94 for 2015 and $1.90 to $2.37 for 2016 since November 6 just less than 2 months ago. This trend will continue and HZNP will have at least 2 and at most 4 acquisitions for 2016. This is not me saying but this is what company is saying. Get it or you need a hammer in the head to understand the potential. Oh, it won't you email you or sounds an alarm when it goes to $27 in matter of a few hours.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $55 will be visit in 2016

    by veqasfletch2001 Jan 3, 2016 10:07 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Jan 3, 2016 11:39 PM Flag

    Believe me, $55 is not hard to get. First we have to get $27 which is an easy job. Even DEPO is trading at forward PE of 11. For HZNP, the forward PE of 11 means $26 and PE of 12 means $28.44. These prices are easy to get and when the stock sits at these prices or higher prices for a while, say a month or two at max, it gives 50 day MA a chance to rise and eventually crosses 200 day MA and bang another Golden Cross, similar to what happened in early 2015. History repeats itself. In 2015, we started around $12 area and we reached $39, for 2016, we start at high $21 and we will be heading for $55. No magic, it happened in 2015 in spite of HZNP weaknesses and now that we are dealing with a much stronger company with huge income then the repeat is easy to get.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Jan 3, 2016 10:07 PM Flag

    The stock will inch up from here, 2 steps up, one step down until earnings report in February. After Q4 report, 2015 numbers will be replaced with 2016 and both 2016 and 2017 will be highlighted. 2016 income will be raised to $2.45 first and later to $2.75. 2017 will start with something like 2.50 but it will be raised to $3 before the year end. The PPS will hang around $26 to $30 after Q4 for 20 to 40 trading days and then the golden cross will happen again. The PPS will be doubled after golden cross or from $27 area to $55 before the year end.
    Enjoy the ride.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Compare DEPO acquisition to Crealta

    by cash_is_king_now Dec 12, 2015 12:14 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 13, 2015 6:24 PM Flag

    CASH_KING did a good job of comparing acquisition of Crealta to DEPO.
    A poster asked why 2015 numbers are used. Based on that, I update with latest DEPO report.
    DEPO Q3 2015 Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $38m. At this run rate, 12 month is $152m. This is 3 times Crealta projected EBITDA. So, with the same token, if EBITDA is tripled then the price should be tripled too($510 * 3 = $1530m). On the other hand, HZNP should pay only $1530m for DEPO without getting any debt to be the same as Crealta deal. If HZNP was paying $11 per share plus assuming DEPO debt (86m * $11 + $575m debt = $1521m) then it can be the same as Crealta deal.
    Now, you ladies and gentlemen tell us which deal is better? Would DEPO accept $11 per share to be the same as Crealta? No way, not even in the dreams. So, be happy that HZNP did an excellent job of acquiring Crealta. It benefited both companies. HZNP got a good price since Crealta got a good price for Crystexxa to beging with.
    There are people that sell their cars, jewelries and other valuable items at deep discount when they need money. But those items have the same value when they are bought and sold normally. Crealta was not desperate and it could find other buyers. Anyone knows if there were other buyers?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Geringerart

    by mccarthyw Dec 12, 2015 10:29 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 13, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    No, TW said it will finish the acquisition quickly. I think, early Q1 is the time. In addition, all sales force of Crealta, 19 of them will continue to sell as before and Crealta (now HZNP subsidiary) receives money. No wasted time. HZNP is not buying a drug, it is buying the whole company. However, current HZNP salesmen (41 of them) will be trained for this new drug soon. 4 to 6 week is training. Eventually, the sale force will be tripled.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Does Crelta worth $510m? Sure it does.

    by cash_is_king_now Dec 13, 2015 12:56 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 13, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    yes, thanks to posters who are clearing the misinformation, misleading subjects and scare tactics of a few with agenda. The people with agenda are becoming known to us and their integrity and credibility become questionable if they care to have some. I always wonder why some people go to that extend to gain a few pennies or even damage a stock without having an interest in it. Baseless subjects like Krystexxa bankrupted Savient was an obvious agenda which affected some weak hands. We know that Savient was a stage drug developer which tried to market a new difficult drug without any marketing experience or even knowing the drug and its treatment well enough to advise doctors and patients. It targeted wrong population of patients with wrong pricing. It scared doctors and patients who did not know how to deal with some side effects. After Krystexxa approval, it took Savient 5 years and over $200m for marketing and R&D to gain some experiences about the drug but it was too late for the company to continue since it ran out of money. Wrong strategy, conception, budgeting and wrong everything. A good drug in hands of some fool who tried to do everything by themselves.
    On the other hands, Crealta experienced marketeers saw opportunity and jump on it with an opportunistic price. They did a good job to stabilize and put it in growth mode. As today, It worth over $.5B and probably a few billions in next few years. What a perfect fit for HZNP and its sales force who are dealing and selling arthritis drugs. 7 time rev and 10 times EBITDA is what HZNP is paying without counting future growth for an orphan drug that has long protected life. It diversify HZNP and bring the company a stream of stable income. Krystexxa EBITDA is 60% of its revenue while the rest of HZNP drugs produce only 48% EBITDA out of the their revenues. Higher EBITDA is advantage of orphan drugs. No effect form ES or insurance companies who have to respect and honor the drug, the only approved drug of this kind

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Current PPS should not depend on acquisition. When an acquisition is announced then investors will look at it and decide the benefit it to reward the stock. Thus, current PPS is based on what investors know about the company. Of course micro event has affected the stock but fundamentals are very strong. The company generate around $100m of cash per quarter plus having access to over $800m cash at this moment ($685m + $40m from DEPO shares + $90m generated in current quarter).
    Investors rarely find a pharma with this strong balance sheet while it is doing development on some key drugs and also some M&A in near future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 6, 2015 11:55 PM Flag

    World Wide expansion makes HZNP an international pharma. I also believe that HZNP may target a company outside US, probably in Europe. Apparently, TW is busy to firm up an acquisition since he did not show up in any of last two CCs.
    I believe an acquisition will be announced in coming weeks. It does not matter if this week or next as long as it adds value to current HZNP porfolio. HZNP preference is Orphan drugs but also specialty is not out of question either. HZNP has only Rayos as specialty and it is reasonable to have one or two more drugs in this area.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 6, 2015 11:24 PM Flag

    Isn't Congress job to discuss any matter that relates to people and also companies who deal with people?
    Why DEPO traders are trying to exclude DEPO which is a pure rollup and it survives by price increase but DEPO is not a number yet? DEPO is selling Nucynta that causes addition and can be abused easily. The extended one can be crushed by some patients to get high.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 4, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    I agree with you, orphan drugs are expensive and they consume a lot of cash. However, they are long term investment. As long as the company can find a good deal like pensaid, it will be positive and increases income. The most important think is that HZNP will be dynamic and it will expand in different areas. Now if specialty drugs are doomed and they are cheap then let have a few of them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 4, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    In one of recent CC, HZNP indicated that priority will be Orphan drugs first then specialty as the second choice and the last priority will be primary care. The company wants to be diversified and increase its Orphan drugs to be the majority. However, if there is a very good deal, HZNP will not pass it in any area.
    There may be some European companies that want to expand in US, so a merger with another company in Europe makes sense. On the other hand, HZNP itself may be a target by a US company that want to save taxes and move to other countries. So, possibilities are a lot.
    Bottom line is that HZNP will have over $800m cash in hand at the end of this month before spending some on acquisitions. $200m to $400m is reasonable for one or two acquisition for this year.
    For next year, I expect that HZNP will generate around $400m to $600m cash. With what left from 2015, HZNP will have a lot of powder to do a few more deals in 2016.
    What do think HZNP income will be for 2016? Based on HZNP history, I think $3 per share will be minimum income for 2016 but I am expecting something between $3 and $4 per share. How about PPS? The force of income will not and cannot keep PPS at these levels. If we PPS tries to stay above $20 now, at worst case scenario, next year this time we are talking about $30 and $40.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Well, HZNP will rock next week

    by veqasfletch2001 Nov 27, 2015 11:54 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 3, 2015 10:29 PM Flag

    Lofty prediction: it is fun to predict with some common sense and math
    Only 6 days are possible for an acquisition announcement.
    If you noticed, TW was absent this week for CCs. I think, he is working hard and negotiating a deal.
    Ignoring weekends, Thursdays, Fridays, Holidays and days before Holidays, only 6 days left for announcement.

    1- Monday Sep 7, 30% chance
    2- Tuesday Sep 8, 15% chance
    3- Wednesday Sep 9, 5% chance
    4- Monday Sep 14, 35% chnace
    5- Tuesday Sep 15, 10% chance
    6- Wednesday Sep 16, 5% chance

    If a day is missed then its percentage will be added to other days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Analazzi Analized As Always

    by geringerart Dec 3, 2015 8:40 PM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 3, 2015 9:47 PM Flag

    When GILD paid $11B for Sovaldi hep-c drug in phase two based on small group of patients with test results, it got a few downgrades from some analysts who did not understand it. First, the price very high. Second test was based on one genotype. Third, a small group of patients. Scientists who decided that it worth the money made history and analysts who downgraded GILD became hero for one day but lost their repetitions later for good. The same for HZNP here with this difference that HZNP is not risking $11B. The reward may be much smaller but it is huge for HZNP size. Even if the drug fails, HZNP is not risking that much and this is not death and life for HZNP business. However, the probability of success is very high.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Well, HZNP will rock next week

    by veqasfletch2001 Nov 27, 2015 11:54 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 3, 2015 8:46 PM Flag

    what the hell are you talking about?
    That is why it is called prediction or probability of happening based on info we know.
    After all, it was not predicted to be 100% but 95%. That 5% was for this purpose. There is always a chance that you get a heart attack and die in a minute before seeing HZNP announces an acquisition. You may get in car accident or a crazy guy shoot you to death. So, deal with it and understand probability.

  • Reply to

    Well, HZNP will rock next week

    by veqasfletch2001 Nov 27, 2015 11:54 AM
    veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Dec 3, 2015 8:33 PM Flag

    phil_inaizona is as much annoying as corvettescars.
    May be both are the same.
    He sounds like posters are owing him something.
    He does not help or add any info but ready to jump on an issue and to criticize posters.
    I have seen this kind pf behavior with kids or very old people.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 by veqasfletch2001 Nov 30, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    This has been a trend almost for every month.
    Funds readjust and mostly sell on last trading of the month and then buy at the first trading day of the month.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 29, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    Control your temper cowboy.
    This is not me that links LC to HZNP but some opportunists did when LC news was released on Nov 10 and the next day the stock was hit by 21% decline. A few tried to imply the same in past few trading days but there is no use. I am trying to tell some naïve trader/investors that LC is just a distributor that can be replaced. As a matter of fact, no company can deal with this situation better than HZNPN since the company has experience and tools from last year for the same scenario. The prove is in estimates and analysts recommendation. End of the story.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • veqasfletch2001 veqasfletch2001 Nov 28, 2015 10:56 PM Flag

    Revenue and income are raised compare to last Friday and last week.
    You think that LC loss may affect HZNP business but this is not the case at all.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Amazing.

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