IIcool, I see that yahoo estimates are down this week. An analysts must have lowered them since the expectation was wrong before. This may affect the PPS which got ahead of itself.
He is taking a loud speaker and going around to say now the stock (I mean the ball) is in the air; it will drop when it reaches 100 feet; the ground will be the support; predicting to bounce 2 feet after touching the ground, now a player goes long (I mean kicks the ball)....
go to yahoo finance,
scmp, click analyst estimates.
current year 2014, used to be $.36, now is $.40. Revenue raised too. number of analysts shows 5, it used to be 4.
I though you are smart however, your recent technical comments are not. They are mixing different unrelated subjects.
Technically speaking, 200 day MA is sitting at $7.28 and this level held very firmly in past 2 downturns even though Low BB was sitting below 200 DMA. Near term, Low BB was tested ($7.70) and the stock should rebound unless some new bad news do more damages then $7.50 and then $7.28 becomes new supports. I do not see $7.28 breakdown.
On subject of share ownership
1- 74% of shares are held by insiders, 21% by institutions and only 5% shares or about 2.1 m shares left for retails/institutions/ investors to play around. Last Quarter, institutions increased 2.2 m shares and decreased only 1.1 m shares or they added 1.2 m shares net. The trend will continue but there may not be enough shares for institutions to go big.
2- If Ueno and his wife own 25 m shares then why that makes anyone worry. They are the most stable investors of SCMP, even much more than any institution. They are not traders to switch from stock to another for a few pennies more, especially because they created SCMP and they have a lot of interest in the company. They had chance to sell the company and still have it as a large shareholders when they get a price that is reasonable, fair and has real SCMP value. It is funny that someone posted that HZNP paid $660m for a small private company with one drug with small revenue (not even net). SCMP gets over $80 m of royalties per year (pure net profit) and it is increasing.
3- I believe that estimates will go up as cash_is_king and med_i nvestor analysis have shown. There is no reason for price stay below $8 any longer.
Capitulation happened in past 2 days with over average volume. The price banged on Low Bollinger Band (LBB) in past 4 trading days and managed to stay above it in spite of unpleasant news.
Going back, in Mid-December 2013, the stock bottomed around $7 and then in late Jan 2014, it bottomed around $7.50. This time around, the stock should bottom around $7.70. The higher low is holding. But the stock is about to forming a W shape with 5 points as:
$10.50, $7.50, $9.50, $7.70, $11.50.
We already formed 4 points and the last point to be seen is at $11.50 in future.
No they don't.
First, this is just a delay,
second 7 to 17 years clinical will continue with pilles.
Nice try, but you cannot fool us.
I do not think any long sells if he/she has done the DD. Sure, there are some traders who may think to sell now and then buy at lower prices but that is a risk especially with a low volume stock. On the other hand, shorts may manipulate and create a panic situation and then take advantage of some weak hands.
SCMP will recover eventually and these setbacks will not last since the company is on roll to increase it revenue and income from existing products and there are other things in the pipeline that add to SCMP growth.
$7? Are you kidding us? The Low Bollinger Band is sitting at $7.74 and 200 day MA is sitting at $7.30.
I don't think it will stay below Low Bollinger Band at $7.74 for long today if it breaks it. However, it may touch or breaks it for a short time and rebound from it. I think we will close above it, something between $7.75 to $8 today.
I am looking at many bio stocks, some of them will never make a penny in their lives, some of them even don't have an approved product or even a product in phase 2. They just survive by issuing shares quarter after. They are not worry about missing a test. But they are trading at prices that put their value (market cap) much higher than SCMP!!!???. Isn't the matket blind?
So, the liquid version of Amitiza did not reach significant efficacy. Why? Because a)tested on small number of people over 65 who may forget taking their drugs or did not get a fixed dosage (it is liquid) or they are not satisfied with other things. This was a mistake and a larger population should have been tested and also other factorsshould have been watched before getting to this point.
Ok, that was a mistake but this liquid version is not out but delayed. In addition, SCMP did la test in 2013 on people from 3 to 17 that was very satisfactory. That version should be continued and SCMP should get approval if SCMP does another test (not liquid version).
I am with you cash,
There is positive side of this development too. This is a signal to IRWD and other "me too" drug companies that things cannot come around easy. When SCMP come up with new formulation it will get a new patent with much longer expiration than 2020.
This was a short clinical and it prevented a longer more expensive one for pediatric. It was nice if SCMP did more research before jumping to final phase. That is why new CEO is here. Sorry to say this but Dr Ueno seemed to be impatient after losing it to Takeda in mid 2012 so he started to put together several combinations of Amitiza in hurry.
However I like PR drug in phase 3 in Japan that has orphan designation here in US and also EU. That will be a game changer.
SCMP will get liquid version of Amitiza but it will take a little longer but it covers more people at different ages. The one that failed was for people over 65 and it did not cover a patients at lower ages that have same problem with the pills.
As a long investor, it do not look at the price in 2014 since this company has no way but improving itself in all directions (new CEO, higher rev, higher income, better balance sheet, new drugs....).
Not only Japan revenue will an up lift, Switzerland also will get more rev since limitations were reomoved and also Amitiza will be sold in UK starting this quarter.
The pipeleine is very active and busy, so R&D revenue may not change that much if any. It ranged from $2.5 m to $11.4 m in the past. $3 seems to be the bottom.
If we close above $8.10 today, then we will have an intersting Monday next week.
First level is $12.26 is Mid Bolinger Band, the second level is Low Bollinger Band and also 50 day MA.
The price got close to Mid BB twice in past few days but rebounded, The third time may break it eventually to test Low BB. Don't get upset if you don't like this technical but it should not be one way street all the time.
I do not own any HZNP but used to hold a lot of shares. I am watching it while I am holding SCMP and a few others.
Not expecting to get all indications in some EU countries. the market is very small in some of EU countries anyway. SCMP may try other countries with better data since US has approved it.
By the way, there is an openning from last year for a Financial Analyst.
Hope SCMP can hire someone with knowledge and one who can work indepently and familar with different software and tools.
It is nice if SCMP replaces CFO too.
I reviewed some of his works and I did not approve some of them.
When a company gets a chunck of money (usually in this field), this money should be recognized in a few quarters but not the quarter it recieves it. This is a basic work for a CFO to show balanced income. This CFO, instead plays with taxes which is limited.
However, the biggest mistake is lack of the guidance. The market/analysts/investors hate when a company does not guide. Look at Q4 and the beat SCMP did in regards to revenue and income where all analysts hinted excellent but none of them followed up or commented since the company was unable to guide even we were in the middle of Q1 quarter.
Bottom line, the CFO is weak and the company needs to address this weakness.
This company has all ingredients of a rare medical company that can rock to high double digit price eventually.