Q1 is now on the books. If even the non financial metrics were anything to write home about, dont you think that this management team would announce something? The SEC does not preclude the announcemnet of such metrics...My hunch was dead on when the day before the Q4 numbers were released the stock was trading suspiciously. and of course I even predicted that the report was going to be very bad. I am not suggesting that recent price declines forebode this again, but what I think is a wee bit odd is the silence of management to not update the shareowners of at least the very recent non financial metrics, considering the abrupt "turning around of the ship" strategy so as to appease us that the strategy is working...
and I strongly feel that we will see 1.50 within 1 month
the positive thing about the kazaa deal is that Brilliant Digital, who kazaa is being purchased from, will own 34% of all the o/s shares. The 10K states that as of that closing date, BD will have 2 seats on the board of directors. As you all may know, the BOD has a major impact re setting the compensation levels of management. Because BD has the same interests as us, since they own the stock and dont draw salaries, they may not approve of some of the highs salaries that we saw in 2009. At least 1 and maybe several management execs actually made a total package of 1.6 million, basically about 135k per month....for a company that lost tens of millions of dollars in 2009, I think all of you would agree that the 1.6 million was excessive
I hope you are still around in the next 4 quarters, because I will post this recent message of your's to show how naive you are in believeing this management team. We are on track to bleed 12-15 million in cash over the next 4 quarters and that assumes the rosiest things on the costs cutting front and the revenue side. It will most likely be a 20 million dollar bleed. If these managers were serious about unlocking value in kazaa, they would approach all the major players about selling out, but the only thing they are interesetd in is continue drawing huge salaries while they bleed the company to death. Again If they want to sell part of the business to keep it going, why dont they sell the whole thing and give us a liquidating dividend. Because they would all be out of work. You are so naive. Try this..Go back and look at 2010 q1, q2 q3 and q4 10Ks, go read the conference call transcripts...they have been promising us for more than 2 years that they will turn the corner..2 years have been enough time. and we continue to hear the same crap. ENOUGH!!!
Further, ATRN management did indicate that subscription revenue “picked up significantly” in the last month of the quarter."
response.. yes at what cost? Do you think its free to advertise to get people to sign up? I am an accident attorney and its absolutely CUTHROAT to get cases. Some years I spend alot more than I get in settlements. They conspicuously omitted what they are spending to acquire these subs, and dont forget the royalties and the fees they have to pay to artsists and credit card companies...Again a company can make 10 billion a month but if they are spending more than that the stock will go to 0
This is a conference call transcript from 1 year ago. Read it and you will realize just how naive you are. Management in May 2010 is talking the same BS..We are in transition. We are making progress with the Kazaa subs. We are rolling out new platforms. We see a bright future ahead blah blah blah..The only thing that has changed is thatthe cash bleed has continued. The talk is the exact same
On another note, The cash position increased from 4.3 million at end of Q3 2010 to 6.3 million at end of Q4 2010 due to three main things.
1. ATRN received 2.7 million for IRS refunds
2. ATRN received 2.5 million from Brilliant Digital from theor agreements
3. ATRN received monet from a lawsuit settlements around 1.1 million, and maybe more. The 10K is a wee bit ambiguous about that. I am still trying to call the co. but noone is ever there
Without the total above collected outside the organic business in the amount of 6.3 million, the co. would have to file for BK. Now we have a one time payment from the IRS for 800k that will be paid in a few months. i DONT KNOW IF WE ARE GOING TO RECEIVE ANY MORE money from outside the organic biz. I am trying to call the co., but again noone ever answers the phone
That is the most naive statement I think I have ever heard. You must be living in a fantasy world to think like that or be tied to some government job/program...If what you say were true, Coke, Mcdonalds and Pepsi, just to name a few would never have to advertise as they have been around for generations and everyone and their mom drinks and eats it. Do u really think they are advertising b/c it is fun? The world of the private sector is absolutely cutthroat..the law of the jungle..the exact oppossite of government who guarantees the survival of the weakest and not the strongest....No these companies know with just word of mouth business would DRAMATICALLY drop off
There is an old saying. When you find youself in a hole, stop digging. Your naivete is actually far more than I initially believed. Lets look at some facts. If you go to yahoo or google and key in the words free download music..free streaming music..or just download music....the first ads that come up are pandora, rhapsody and kazaa..These ads do not come up by just chance or luck..These companies are paying for those ads....These cdompanies "bid on these ads' and the more they pay, the higher up they are in the rankings..What does this all mean..Kazzaa's advertising budget is starting to ramp up and that costs money..your money and my money b/c the co. is not funding their business from free cash flow but money that investors put into the co's treasury at the ipo, etc etc...Now the way it works is Kazaa or rapsody or pandora does not pay google or yahoo whenh the ads pop up..only when someone like yourself clicks on that ad, thats when the payment by kazaa is made from their ad ccount...what is my point? My point is that if you key in these words you will find that Kazaa is heavily heavily bidding on those aforementioned words so great if they gain subs...fine but they are paying a very heavy price for those subs..a price that I think is not worth what they are getting back..Time will certianly tell...of course the final paradox in all this is the refuation of your idiotic understanding of the free market..if word of mouth is what controls the rates of acquisition of subs in this industry, pandora, kazaa and rhapsody wouldne be wasting millions upon millions of dollars fighting for those subs now would they?
I am still holding out hope..that is why I continue to hold the shares. I am down 40 percent. The music industry is going to dramatically undergo a change and that is where my hope lies. I say its a 50/50 chance that this co. can turn the corner. It will be damn hard to do that IMO. The cash levels have almost been bled to death. Management should have been trying to shore up the balancxe sheet along time ago..not at the 11th hour. Also, the change in the exec suite at ATRN looks like a game of musical chairs..more high execs have come and gone that most people change their pants...One only wonders why such a high exec turnover..I meant no disrepsect, but I feel if this co. turns around, it will take alot longer than most people think..alot longer..I still think the only way this co. can have a chance at turning around is to sell that ad agency get 5-7 million after all expenses and that will tie them over for maybe 3, max 4 quarters ..and lets hope that they can garner at the very least 50k new subs after attrit, every quarter..I feel to turn the corner, they will need at least 500 thosand new kazaa subs after the attrit ,IMO..time will certainly tell again I meant no disrespect..good luck
You just made my point. I said in my prior post they need to get to 500k subs. Once that number is reached they could finance their cost structure with free cash flow instead of treasury cash. Of course, how much time do they have to reach that critical mass? Once the cash runs out, the fat lady starts to sing.
There is an article in the Wall Street Journal today about spotify. A large percentage of their revenues come from ad supported music consumption as oppossed to subscription based supported music consumption. Intrigueingly, Spotify management said that the ad supported part of the business is not cost effective and is losing money b/c advertising sales dont generate enough revenue to offset the combined costs of licensing music from record companies and the technical infrastructure to deliver that music to users. This is quite good news for ATRN, b/c it confirms that their model of sub supported music consumption will most definitely be the model that is demanded by the market. I can see years down the road when ATT&T, Comcast or DTV offers their one stop service to customers, an offer will be something like for an extra 10 dollars a month you can get access to any song ever recorded on your smartphone. Again, ATRN is using the model that appears will be the most costs effective model demanded by the marketplace; Bill Gates years ago predicted that the subscription based model would be the default model and it turns out he is correct.
horrah for the hayseeds
they are really showing up all those pompous an-uses at Hravard and Yale
Someone should ask those liberal leftist institutions..whos smarter now-u an-uses LMFAO
nice try..In 1980, we had only 1 trillion in debt, and Debt to GDP was actually quite manageable..with all the debt, unfunded liabilities and state and municipal debt...it is a mathematical impossibility to pay even a fraction back..even with the Ryan plan passage, millions of government workers would have to be laid off if we want to cut the spending Ryan is talking about, so if that happens we get a huge spike in unemployment..we are in a catch 22 and the only way out is to default or print..either way GLD will go ballistic..what else will foreign central baks hold in their vaults? dollars, yen, euros? its alol a paper ponzi scheme
see my Friday post. We are on our way to $1.50. That is what happens when hope and change turn into reality. There are no earnings or free cash flow to hold up this price, nor is there any balance sheet metric to hold up this price. I drank the hope and change kool aid and Im down 50%. I havent given up the ship yet and I probobally will go down with the ship if that is our future. I referenced the Spotify article in the paper last week. I forgot to mention that Spotify is coming to the US, and they are on the cusp of approaching the major music lables about inking deals so that they can set up shop here. They have 1 million registered users, although I beleive only a small fraction of them are paying subs, whcih begs a question ..of the 77k kazaa subs, does anyone know how many of them are paying subs??? U can register as a sub for free with kazaa, and then drop off after the trial period...does anyone know..anyway, this spotify news begs the 64k question..maybe they will surface, or someone like them as a white knight and take us out at a fair premium..we should send out an SOS...Someone please dcome rescue us ATRN shareholders
Gilliam is flat incorrect about the 15m market cap. Yes maybe at the pps when he was writing that article, but he forgets to mention the 1.7 plus million shares that ATRN must tranfer out of treasury to close the deal with Brilliant Digital at the end of Q2, per statements made in the SEC filings. Accordingly the share count will rise to 7.8 million and as such the market cap presently is or will be at todays prices 27 plus million, factoring in the 1.7 plus million dilutive effects of that share rise at end of Q2
Yes maybe so, but remember this stock is rising again solely on Hope and Change..There is no mathematical reality that can hold this price up. I want this stock to go to the moon like you, but remember the management CONSPIUOUSLY omitted how much cash they have NOW. Why? Once the cash is gone, its game set and match unless they get some kind of financing..why did these people wait until the last minute to shore up the balance sheet? sounds to me totally incompetent and it risks running ATRN into a ditch
This is more than 4 times the average trading volume and the trading day is only 2 hours old. It could be that 1) a major player studied the stock over the weekend and decided that he wants to acquire a solid position or 2) someone or something is acquiring a major position to be in a position of greenmail authority, usually to set the stage for a takeover bid or 3) just maybe someone out there is trading on dirty information. I would tend to believe that it would be the former,as noone could be stupid enough to draw this much attention to himself and put up flags that the SEC would obviously notice
are you serious? There is not even any remotely reliable evidence that this is going on. The poster that started this rumour posted a link to a website that any bozo could set up in a few hours..totally unreliable