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eBay Inc. (EBAY) Message Board

verylongsigh 76 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 26, 2015 2:57 PM Member since: Nov 16, 2003
  • Reply to

    This Dog Just Won't Hunt.....

    by vipinkot47 Feb 26, 2015 10:35 AM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 26, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    If you wanted to take a large position in options, wouldn't you want reduced volume and volatility to greatly lower the prices?

  • Reply to

    Went long over the last 2 days

    by sir_david_pierce Feb 25, 2015 11:31 AM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 25, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    Suppose I had the theory that all of the people who died at Nagasaki and Hiroshima died from natural causes rather than the effects of the nuclear bombs. Do I understand that you would argue that the consensus theory that the bombs actually killed them would have to remain unproven, that you'd consider it a religious belief, since there was no appropriate control?

    There is no evidence that the massive, swift environmental changes in the past 100 years are due to natural causes. None. There is a preponderance of evidence they are due to increased greenhouse gases. We can do controlled experiments on simulated environments and reproduce the changes we seen by increasing the levels of greenhouse gases. Although we can't model the effects perfectly yet, none of the inconsistencies explain away the experimental data and the actual climate results we have.

    There's also the issue of risk. If the climate change deniers--and the word is correct since they are denying the abundant evidence we have--are correct, we will waste a large amount of money doing things that we need to do by doing them earlier than we could. If the consensus is correct, we will become extinct if we don't act.

    While you may venture the theory that someone could stand in front of a freight train moving at 60 mph in their direction and survive, they have but one opportunity in life to prove it. I certainly don't want to be the one tied to the tracks while you make a bet on it.

    Personally, my credentials don't affect the argument in an way. The evidence is what it is.

  • Reply to

    Go Long?

    by ohtaegun Feb 20, 2015 12:54 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 23, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    If you're being honest, you don't understand enough of what the terms mean to be an investor. Stick to index funds.

  • Reply to

    How Many Common Shares Will The Preferred Holders

    by jimkolak Feb 10, 2015 2:02 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 13, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    "Each share of our mandatory convertible preferred stock has a liquidation preference of $1,000 (and, correspondingly, each depositary share has a liquidation preference of $25). Each share of our mandatory convertible preferred stock will automatically convert on the third business day immediately following the end of the final averaging period into between 28.1480 and 34.4840 of our common shares, par value $0.125 per share (respectively, the “minimum conversion rate” and the “maximum conversion rate”) (and, correspondingly, each depositary share will automatically convert into between 0.7037 and 0.8621 of our common shares), subject to anti-dilution adjustments."

  • verylongsigh by verylongsigh Feb 13, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    Short people got no reason
    To live

    They got greedy hands
    Greedy eyes
    They post on Yahoo
    Tellin great big lies
    They say shorted@40
    And itgoin to 4
    Dogs only pay em
    Two cents for every single post

    Well, I don't want no short people
    Don't want no short people
    Don't want no short people
    Round here

  • verylongsigh by verylongsigh Feb 12, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    Short CLF, long CLV

  • Reply to

    CLF E.est. Are Absolutely Absurd...

    by vipinkot47 Feb 9, 2015 3:18 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 10, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    Go ahead and throw your best, because global warming means warmer summers AND colder winters: increased volatility AND an upward momentum. Eventually Britain freezes, Georgia becomes a desert, and Florida becomes just a sand bar.

  • Reply to

    Maybe Q1 Will NOT be Slow

    by w999surf Feb 10, 2015 12:20 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 10, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    AIR, they specifically said they had no ore on the ground. They already unloaded their stockpile in 14Q4.

  • Reply to

    Poor Little Anuj Cumar

    by airlinegy Feb 9, 2015 12:42 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 9, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    None of the matters. Nothing the analysts do affects CLF's performance. Nothing the shorts or longs do affects CLF's performance. The ultimate value of the company is based solely on how it performs. So how reasonable is his model for CLF's performance?

    Not at all.

    First, he ignores Bloom Lake. The recovery from that and other assets sales with bond repurchases could make up the shortfall even if the rest of his model was correct. Assuming zero recovery isn't plausible given what we know.

    Next, he makes two fatal assumptions: no cost reductions going forth, and the cost of transporting+pelletizing ore to the midwest as being no more than 15% of any price. The former is unlikely, the latter is impossible. Even if all of CLF's contracts were to reset to being index based, they would be index based plus either a fixed cost or a cost not tied to ore prices. The price difference has to be at least the actual cost difference, and that's at least $20-$25/t no matter what. Quite simply, no will ever be able to buy DRI pellets at $57 + 15%. It costs more than $8 to ship and pelletize the product, even if you could get the ore for free.

    There are reasons to short CLF even at this price. But assuming the absurd and then trying to justify it in an article isn't one of them.

  • verylongsigh by verylongsigh Feb 8, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Besides Graham's Security Analysis, any other book suggestions for valuing distressed assets?

    If the take-or-pay contract is dismissed completely, it's virtually certain the company will get a substantial sum, but nothing is guaranteed. The court has extraordinary discretion. With no way to know what the outcome will be, we still should be able to come up with some intrinsic value to what's left. If the assets were auctioned off, what would *you* pay for them?

  • Write your congressman and ask that any infrastructure bill require using US steel from US ore.

  • Reply to

    bond prices

    by jennfrc2007 Feb 5, 2015 3:08 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 5, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    Yep. They've been falling since the S&P downgrade.

  • verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 5, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    Deflation is takes much longer to resolve than inflation. Between falling yields and the company's improving finances, it's hard to say which will have more capital gains in a year, the preferred or the bonds. I opted for the preferred, but would have done better with the bonds so far from the point I made my decision. Still, at $1.12 in dividends + 86% of common...the preferred is still very attractive at today's price, though not as attractive as yesterday's. :-)

  • verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 5, 2015 12:22 PM Flag

    Which one? I pulled my quote from my ScotTrade account...and that's a helluva spread over yours.

  • verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 5, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    Where are you getting that quote? Best I can get is .689.

  • Reply to

    its infested with short

    by namam75 Feb 4, 2015 3:01 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 4, 2015 3:23 PM Flag

    Among other sources, they trade on the Frankfurt exchange, which allows unlimited naked shorting. They could asked to be removed, but all it takes is one hedge fund to declare itself a market maker on that exchange, and the loophole is open again.

  • Suppose the share price this quarter goes beyond your expectations, be in down to $3 or up to $15. What will you do with the money you make? Are you here just to make more money? For the excitement of the trade? Or do you have plans for the money you make?

    This year I promised myself I wouldn't buy any more toys I don't have room for unless the proceeds for them came from a windfall. So I set a cap. Below that amount, the profits just get rolled into future investments. Above it, I get to play. Here's why I'm in Cliffs: I want a pair of Vivid Giya speakers. I can't justifying buying them; the speakers I have are fine. But I *want* them.

    What about you? Are you buying or shorting for some particular purpose?

  • verylongsigh by verylongsigh Feb 4, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    I'm reading The Snowball, Buffett's biography. In one section it talks about him buying Geico, when its stock had collapsed from $90/share to $2. They had tossed out the old management, and the CEO, Jack Byrne, was struggling to right the ship. It has this gem that reminds me of Cliffs:

    "GEICO was getting such bad press, Byrne said, that if he had walked across the Potomac River, the headlines would have screamed, 'Byrne Can't Swim.'"

  • verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 4, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Legitimate shorts don't attempt to manipulate the market. Legitimate shorts don't fail to deliver shares when covering. Legitimate shorts don't pay people to post false messages to scare them into selling. Legitimate shorts don't prepare false research and distribute them through captured media outlets. Legitimate shorts don't kill the CEO's dogs and leave death threats on his wife's phone. Legitimate shorts don't vanish with millions of dollars of investors' money when the cops finally show up at their door.

    Einhorn covered. I don't recall anyone accusing him of being a #$%$.

    But the bucket shop boys who post in waves here? I think they deserve the appellation.

  • 1. Sloppy earnings: It's true. They were covered in coal dust, rust, and if you sniffed, they still smelt a little of maple syrup. These earnings were filthy! They must be neat and tidy for the next quarter.

    2. When they knocked the earnings out of the park in Q4, they broke Sam's window. Hey, dudes, Corolla windows aren't cheap!

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