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eBay Inc. (EBAY) Message Board

verylongsigh 68 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 22, 2015 6:26 AM Member since: Nov 16, 2003
  • Reply to

    Question about LL and houses..

    by jwalker_47_99 Mar 22, 2015 12:41 AM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Mar 22, 2015 6:26 AM Flag

    Search for "formaldehyde carcinogen" and you'll find a formaldehyde-fact-sheet on the gov's cancer site. Yahoo won't let me post the link.

    Short term exposure to formaldehyde isn't much of a risk. Drywall dust is more a problem. I always wear a mask. If you get in the habit of putting on a mask when you go in and have your son do the same, he'll pick up good safety habits. Everybody else will make fun of him years later, but they'll be happy to see him when he comes visit them in the hospital during their chemo treatments.

  • verylongsigh verylongsigh Mar 20, 2015 9:27 PM Flag

    But I was young and foolish then
    I feel old and foolish now
    (TMBG boy TMBG)

  • Reply to

    This either goes to $6 for a quick 1/2 bagger

    by clfcomeback Mar 20, 2015 11:02 AM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Mar 20, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    Alas, to be in bed with CLF demands a double bagger at this point.

  • Reply to

    NUE warns

    by blackoutbuzz Mar 19, 2015 12:41 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Mar 19, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    If it becomes cheaper to import finished steel than make it locally from DRI, then the entire US industry from ore up will be finished.

    One consequence of unfettered capitalism, where fiduciary duty is paramount, is that if it its more profitable to destroy your country then invest in it, then one is obligated to buy the put and drop the bomb.

    Jim Rogers now lives in Singapore.

  • Reply to

    CLF has the chart of death forming.......

    by ohtaegun Mar 12, 2015 6:20 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Mar 13, 2015 3:07 PM Flag

    The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
    Of the big mine they call Cliffsisgloomy
    The market, it's said, never gives up for dead
    When the gales of Oh Tae Gun blow early

  • Reply to

    Are These Guys Going To File

    by jimkolak Mar 11, 2015 1:35 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Mar 12, 2015 10:30 PM Flag

    Nope. They have a large amount of debt, but nothing substantial before 2018. Company has already set aside money for the remaining dividend payments too. The street is pricing them assuming the price of iron ore continues to contract so they will be forced to recapitalize by 2018. Moody's lowered their unsecured debt to B3 stable, suggesting they're in lousy shape but have enough liquidity to remain that way provided iron ore remains above $55/t. If it crashes to $30/t, and stays there for a year, all bets are off. Australia may default, China would default, and the entire world would be in a depression for at least 20 years. Unless WW3 starts, of course.

    As long as the iron ore futures continue to decline, so will CLF's share price.

  • Reply to

    darkest time before the dawn, test your nerve

    by lishe235 Mar 11, 2015 1:13 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Mar 11, 2015 1:43 PM Flag

    If you caught LG's comments in Perth, he mentioned price dropping to $30/t and all of AU effectively bankrupt. Not exactly warm and fuzzy let's-support-the-stock.

  • page/viewresearchdoc.aspx?
    docid=PR_320308
    &WT.mc_id=AMRG93X0pvbmVzX05ld3NSb2

  • Reply to

    This Dog Just Won't Hunt.....

    by vipinkot47 Feb 26, 2015 10:35 AM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 26, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    If you wanted to take a large position in options, wouldn't you want reduced volume and volatility to greatly lower the prices?

  • Reply to

    Went long over the last 2 days

    by sir_david_pierce Feb 25, 2015 11:31 AM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 25, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    Suppose I had the theory that all of the people who died at Nagasaki and Hiroshima died from natural causes rather than the effects of the nuclear bombs. Do I understand that you would argue that the consensus theory that the bombs actually killed them would have to remain unproven, that you'd consider it a religious belief, since there was no appropriate control?

    There is no evidence that the massive, swift environmental changes in the past 100 years are due to natural causes. None. There is a preponderance of evidence they are due to increased greenhouse gases. We can do controlled experiments on simulated environments and reproduce the changes we seen by increasing the levels of greenhouse gases. Although we can't model the effects perfectly yet, none of the inconsistencies explain away the experimental data and the actual climate results we have.

    There's also the issue of risk. If the climate change deniers--and the word is correct since they are denying the abundant evidence we have--are correct, we will waste a large amount of money doing things that we need to do by doing them earlier than we could. If the consensus is correct, we will become extinct if we don't act.

    While you may venture the theory that someone could stand in front of a freight train moving at 60 mph in their direction and survive, they have but one opportunity in life to prove it. I certainly don't want to be the one tied to the tracks while you make a bet on it.

    Personally, my credentials don't affect the argument in an way. The evidence is what it is.

  • Reply to

    Go Long?

    by ohtaegun Feb 20, 2015 12:54 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 23, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    If you're being honest, you don't understand enough of what the terms mean to be an investor. Stick to index funds.

  • Reply to

    How Many Common Shares Will The Preferred Holders

    by jimkolak Feb 10, 2015 2:02 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 13, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    "Each share of our mandatory convertible preferred stock has a liquidation preference of $1,000 (and, correspondingly, each depositary share has a liquidation preference of $25). Each share of our mandatory convertible preferred stock will automatically convert on the third business day immediately following the end of the final averaging period into between 28.1480 and 34.4840 of our common shares, par value $0.125 per share (respectively, the “minimum conversion rate” and the “maximum conversion rate”) (and, correspondingly, each depositary share will automatically convert into between 0.7037 and 0.8621 of our common shares), subject to anti-dilution adjustments."

  • verylongsigh by verylongsigh Feb 13, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    Short people got no reason
    To live

    They got greedy hands
    Greedy eyes
    They post on Yahoo
    Tellin great big lies
    They say shorted@40
    And itgoin to 4
    Dogs only pay em
    Two cents for every single post

    Well, I don't want no short people
    Don't want no short people
    Don't want no short people
    Round here

  • verylongsigh by verylongsigh Feb 12, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    Short CLF, long CLV

  • Reply to

    CLF E.est. Are Absolutely Absurd...

    by vipinkot47 Feb 9, 2015 3:18 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 10, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    Go ahead and throw your best, because global warming means warmer summers AND colder winters: increased volatility AND an upward momentum. Eventually Britain freezes, Georgia becomes a desert, and Florida becomes just a sand bar.

  • Reply to

    Maybe Q1 Will NOT be Slow

    by w999surf Feb 10, 2015 12:20 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 10, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    AIR, they specifically said they had no ore on the ground. They already unloaded their stockpile in 14Q4.

  • Reply to

    Poor Little Anuj Cumar

    by airlinegy Feb 9, 2015 12:42 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 9, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    None of the matters. Nothing the analysts do affects CLF's performance. Nothing the shorts or longs do affects CLF's performance. The ultimate value of the company is based solely on how it performs. So how reasonable is his model for CLF's performance?

    Not at all.

    First, he ignores Bloom Lake. The recovery from that and other assets sales with bond repurchases could make up the shortfall even if the rest of his model was correct. Assuming zero recovery isn't plausible given what we know.

    Next, he makes two fatal assumptions: no cost reductions going forth, and the cost of transporting+pelletizing ore to the midwest as being no more than 15% of any price. The former is unlikely, the latter is impossible. Even if all of CLF's contracts were to reset to being index based, they would be index based plus either a fixed cost or a cost not tied to ore prices. The price difference has to be at least the actual cost difference, and that's at least $20-$25/t no matter what. Quite simply, no will ever be able to buy DRI pellets at $57 + 15%. It costs more than $8 to ship and pelletize the product, even if you could get the ore for free.

    There are reasons to short CLF even at this price. But assuming the absurd and then trying to justify it in an article isn't one of them.

  • verylongsigh by verylongsigh Feb 8, 2015 2:24 PM Flag

    Besides Graham's Security Analysis, any other book suggestions for valuing distressed assets?

    If the take-or-pay contract is dismissed completely, it's virtually certain the company will get a substantial sum, but nothing is guaranteed. The court has extraordinary discretion. With no way to know what the outcome will be, we still should be able to come up with some intrinsic value to what's left. If the assets were auctioned off, what would *you* pay for them?

  • Write your congressman and ask that any infrastructure bill require using US steel from US ore.

  • Reply to

    bond prices

    by jennfrc2007 Feb 5, 2015 3:08 PM
    verylongsigh verylongsigh Feb 5, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    Yep. They've been falling since the S&P downgrade.

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