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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

verypure1 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 24, 2015 7:30 AM Member since: May 13, 2004
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  • verypure1 by verypure1 Feb 24, 2015 7:30 AM Flag

    The Alexa website (a company that tracks web traffic), shows that traffic for UGG is way above last year's. Whereas UGG web traffic always falls steadily after its peak just before Christmas until it hits its summer low, this year it has climbed during the month of February and has still not begun to decline. Obviously this is a result of the cold weather. And it bodes well for earnings this quarter and for restocking orders in the fall.

  • Reply to

    Hoka One One

    by verypure1 Jan 8, 2015 4:39 PM
    verypure1 verypure1 Feb 4, 2015 12:17 PM Flag

    Why are you so optimistic about Hoka? I am just curious to know what you know.

    Also, you are surely right that people don't know that Hoka is a DECK brand. Not long ago I talked to a woman who was running in Hokas, and I asked her how she liked them. She was very enthusiastic, and said she wished it were possible to invest in the company, but unfortunately they don't have stock. Needless to say, I educated her.

  • Reply to

    $65 - $70 tomorrow morning

    by spittinimage6 Jan 29, 2015 10:22 AM
    verypure1 verypure1 Jan 29, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    Zohar Ziv, the outgoing COO, announced his retirement about a year ago. He agreed to continue as a consultant until a replacement could be found. He even participated in at least one conference call after his announcement. So a new COO has no negative significance. However, it is interesting that the new COO is a lawyer with a lot of merger and acquisitions experience. This could be a hint about how he will spend some of his time. DECK remains interested in acquiring more companies.

  • Reply to

    What happened in 2012?

    by sthec Jan 22, 2015 7:45 AM
    verypure1 verypure1 Jan 22, 2015 9:20 AM Flag

    As I recall, DECK was badly shaken in late November 2011 when Sam Poser of Sterne Agee said that his information indicated that UGG sales were weak. He even gave at least one interview (that I saw) reiterating his report. And Poser is probably the most respected analyst of footwear stocks. It looked to him like the end of the UGG "fad," the great bugaboo that has always haunted and depressed the share price of DECK. The next earnings call included other red flags, such as worrisome information about a huge increase in the price of sheepskin and handwringing about the mild winter weather. So the stock went into a free fall, which eventually proved to be an overreaction. The stock then rebounded very powerfully, but did not quite get back to its all-time high.

    The recent decline seems also to have resulted from some kind of report about weak sales -- a report that at least one analyst has discounted as marginal and inconsistant with his/her information. That analyst believes this is a buying opportunity. The fad fear seems to be alive and well. Yet UGG sales seemingly continue to boom, and the company is growing in other areas as well (such as Sanuk, Teva, and Hoka One One).

  • verypure1 by verypure1 Jan 8, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    For nice discussion of the rapid rise of Hoka, including the move into hiking boots, Google this story: "Fast-Growing Hoka One One looks to go beyond niche."

    Very welcome news for any long-term DECK investor, and another reason to be grateful for the management we have, especially Angel Martinez.

  • Reply to

    Weather

    by ezndat Jan 5, 2015 10:47 AM
    verypure1 verypure1 Jan 6, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    Correction: It was about three years ago -- not two years ago -- that I sold a chunk of shares, and about two years ago that I bought back even more at an average price of about 37. Sorry I was a bit hasty, and did not properly check the dates.

  • Reply to

    Weather

    by ezndat Jan 5, 2015 10:47 AM
    verypure1 verypure1 Jan 6, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    Not sure what it says that I am a long-term holder? What it says is that I have enjoyed enormous gains in this stock by refusing to be influenced by what I have viewed as meaningless short-term fluctuations. I did, however, have the good fortune sell a lot of shares about two years ago when the news on the company was somewhat worrisome, and I had the further good fortune to buy back even more shares at an average of 37 about a year after that. But over the longer term I have rarely panicked, and I now own more shares than I have ever owned. As I have said, I am confident that DECK will rise above 100. But of course I could be wrong.

  • Reply to

    Weather

    by ezndat Jan 5, 2015 10:47 AM
    verypure1 verypure1 Jan 5, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    For what it is worth from a long-time owner of DECK shares: Don't expect the stock to behave in what you view as a rational fashion. Lots of things inflluence short-term movements of the stock price, even when all signs point to very good earnings. For example, it is my impression that for quite a while now (months), retail-related stocks have been suffering selling and other negativity from large investors, such as hedge funds and institutions. Look at Under Armour, for example. It has gone nowhere for months, yet its sales are booming. So keep the faith if you believe in DECK, and do not sell prematurely. I believe that now is a good time to buy DECK, and I am confident it will be rising well above 100. As you note, DECK is very strong today (unlike UA) in the face of a horrendous downturn in the larger market. This suggests that a bit of rationality might be creeping back to DECK's share price.

  • Reply to

    Huge UGG sales

    by verypure1 Dec 19, 2014 10:56 AM
    verypure1 verypure1 Dec 19, 2014 5:50 PM Flag

    Jimmach: Many thanks for the view from S. Korea. Very interesting.

    I agree that Zappos sales look unusually strong.

    Read some extremely enthusiastic reviews of HOKAs today, too -- in Zappos. Lots of revenue will be coming from that stream.

    As you can guess, I am a longtime long, and I strongly view my strategy as the way to make big money in in this company. It's a great company, and patience will win out.

    Best for the holidays!

  • verypure1 by verypure1 Dec 19, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    I simply want to report that the data I use to monitor UGG sales are all the more impressive now than when I last mentioned the subject on this message board. I will mention, in particular, that as of a few minutes ago, UGG styles held the number 1, 4, 7, and 10 spots for the best-selling footwear for all catégories combined (men, women, and children) at Amazon. An astonishing number of other styles also have very high sales ranks.

    I have followed DECK sales for many years, and have never seen such sales volume as I am seeing this year. If my indications are correct, this quarter will blow away the company and analyst sales and earnings estimates. So, barring a huge and broad market downturn, I expect DECK stock to enjoy a very large gain during the next two months.

    I would appreciate any acecdotal évidence about sales that anyone can provide. It would be a lot more useful than garbage about Jim Cramer and the brilliant CEO Angel Martinez, who has guided DECK to such amazing success during the past nearly ten years.

DECK
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