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Deckers Outdoor Corp. Message Board

verypure1 12 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 5:50 PM Member since: May 13, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Huge UGG sales

    by verypure1 Dec 19, 2014 10:56 AM
    verypure1 verypure1 Dec 19, 2014 5:50 PM Flag

    Jimmach: Many thanks for the view from S. Korea. Very interesting.

    I agree that Zappos sales look unusually strong.

    Read some extremely enthusiastic reviews of HOKAs today, too -- in Zappos. Lots of revenue will be coming from that stream.

    As you can guess, I am a longtime long, and I strongly view my strategy as the way to make big money in in this company. It's a great company, and patience will win out.

    Best for the holidays!

  • verypure1 by verypure1 Dec 19, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    I simply want to report that the data I use to monitor UGG sales are all the more impressive now than when I last mentioned the subject on this message board. I will mention, in particular, that as of a few minutes ago, UGG styles held the number 1, 4, 7, and 10 spots for the best-selling footwear for all catégories combined (men, women, and children) at Amazon. An astonishing number of other styles also have very high sales ranks.

    I have followed DECK sales for many years, and have never seen such sales volume as I am seeing this year. If my indications are correct, this quarter will blow away the company and analyst sales and earnings estimates. So, barring a huge and broad market downturn, I expect DECK stock to enjoy a very large gain during the next two months.

    I would appreciate any acecdotal évidence about sales that anyone can provide. It would be a lot more useful than garbage about Jim Cramer and the brilliant CEO Angel Martinez, who has guided DECK to such amazing success during the past nearly ten years.

  • Reply to

    UGG sales

    by verypure1 Nov 12, 2014 7:59 PM
    verypure1 verypure1 Nov 16, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Jimmach: Thanks for the information on Seoul and the AAFES, etc. Nice to have more relevant information on this board!

  • Reply to

    while I do not agree...

    by advisorydoc Nov 12, 2014 2:51 PM
    verypure1 verypure1 Nov 14, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    Doc: I don't really see the value of a debate about Cramer. Despite my admiration for him as a person (as I previously noted), he is almost completely irrelevant to me. I only watch him when a video of him pertains to a stock I follow and shows up on Yahoo!. And in any case I would never follow a recommendation by anyone, absent my own study of the company. His main relevance to me is his possible short-term impact on the prices of stocks I follow.

    I will only add that what you call "forward vision" sounds close to what I call creativity (in the context of the stock market). I believe that creativity is not adequately appreciated as an important element in investing. And I am not able to assess Cramer's degree of creativity. If he has very much creativity in the stock market, I'm not sure it would be evident on his show, given its time horizon (which I mentioned earlier).

    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    while I do not agree...

    by advisorydoc Nov 12, 2014 2:51 PM
    verypure1 verypure1 Nov 14, 2014 8:51 AM Flag

    Doc: I don't really see how it is possible to evaluate Jim Cramer's "forward vision," as you call it -- though concevably you are right. As I effectively said once before on this board, the problem with trying to evaluate Cramer's ability to assess the future is that his whole program is geared neither to a long-range nor a short, trading-range perspective on stocks. The object is to assess the value of stocks for the intermediate term -- a matter of months at most rather than years or days (much less hours). Without that intermediate term perspective, his program would be impossible. He would name his stocks to hold ten or more years, and then there would be nothing else to say -- and no "Mad Money" show. Or he would give his short-term trading advice, and there would be no appropriate audience for it. He gives people what they want: stocks for the intermediate term. But as you seem to know, the way to make huge money in the stock market is not the intermediate but the long term. You buy a stock whose long-range future looks very promising, and then you hold it until that long-range future seems to dim. So I think it is unfair to criticize Cramer for not doing something his program is not, and cannot be, designed to address. But maybe you were making a different point that I have failed to address. As I hope you know, I respect your thinking about stocks. (Note: I reposted this because it seemed otherwise unknowable that I posted it the first time.) Less

  • Reply to

    while I do not agree...

    by advisorydoc Nov 12, 2014 2:51 PM
    verypure1 verypure1 Nov 14, 2014 4:00 AM Flag

    Doc: I don't really see how it is possible to evaluate Jim Cramer's "forward vision," as you call it -- though concevably you are right. As I effectively said once before on this board, the problem with trying to evaluate Cramer's ability to assess the future is that his whole program is geared neither to a long-range nor a short, trading-range perspective on stocks. The object is to assess the value of stocks for the intermediate term -- a matter of months at most rather than years or days (much less hours). Without that intermediate term perspective, his program would be impossible. He would name his stocks to hold ten or more years, and then there would be nothing else to say -- and no "Mad Money" show. Or he would give his short-term trading advice, and there would be no appropriate audience for it. He gives people what they want: stocks for the intermediate term. But as you seem to know, the way to make huge money in the stock market is not the intermediate but the long term. You buy a stock whose long-range future looks very promising, and then you hold it until that long-range future seems to dim. So I think it is unfair to criticize Cramer for not doing something his program is not, and cannot be, designed to address. But maybe you were making a different point that I have failed to address. As I hope you know, I respect your thinking about stocks.

  • Reply to

    while I do not agree...

    by advisorydoc Nov 12, 2014 2:51 PM
    verypure1 verypure1 Nov 13, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    Doc: For the record, I do not have the view that anyone should choose stocks on the basis of what Jim Cramer recommends. Of course he is often wrong, as is virtually any professional who recommends stocks for purchase or sale. My point is merely that Jim Cramer is an amazingly intelligent, knowledgeable, and energetic human being -- far superior to the vast majority of other humans on the planet. Only those who have never known the kind of ability and work required to achieve anything significant (such as Cramer has achieved in his life, from his student days forward) could possibly show contempt for Jim Cramer. Apart from his stock picks, Jim Cramer is a kind of superhuman most people rarely encounter in their everyday lives.

  • verypure1 by verypure1 Nov 12, 2014 7:59 PM Flag

    Today for the first time the UGG Classic Short is the top-selling women's shoe at Zappo's (the largest online shoe retailer in the world). This is a very early date for UGG to reach this level of sales -- the earliest I've ever seen -- and bodes very well for this quarter. Also, web traffic for UGGs is well ahead of last year's level at this time, which also bodes very well for this quarter. Obviously the early cold weather is part of the story, but I doubt if it fully accounts for this big surge of interest in the brand.

    Does anyone else have any pertinent sales information -- on UGG or any other DECK brand? Each year I ask for sales information, but no one ever provides any. Yet this is the most important information for the creative investor.

  • Reply to

    Cramer made a good call on Deck in Sept....

    by advisorydoc Nov 6, 2014 10:28 AM
    verypure1 verypure1 Nov 6, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    Advisorydoc: My relative bought thé équivalent of 3,000 shares back then -- at a cost of $30,000. As you can see, those shares would now be worth over a quarter of a million dollars. But I've made simular mistakes -- not by selling prematurely but by failing to buy stocks my instincts told me to buy. (By thé way, I don't know why my messages are appearing in French, with inappropriée accents on thé "e's." I don't know how to stop it. Also, I apologize for leaving thé word "hé" out of my sentence about why many people hate Cramer. I meant to say "many hate Cramer because hé IS so successful.")

  • Reply to

    Cramer made a good call on Deck in Sept....

    by advisorydoc Nov 6, 2014 10:28 AM
    verypure1 verypure1 Nov 6, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    Advisorydoc: I wonder if you owned DECK years ago when Jim Cramer came on his show wearing UGG boots to sing thé praises of DECK. At that time, DECK was thé équivalent of $10 per share. I already owned it, but his présentation convinced a relative of mine (who had previously ignored me) to buy some. However, thé relative foolishly sold it when it went down a few points (against my advice).

    Cramer has recommended DECK on a number of occasions.

    Cramer cannot always be right, of course, but his brilliance and energy level never cease to amaze me. As you know, however, hé is continually attacked and slandered by countless mediocrities who have never achieved anything in their own lives and cannot identify a superior human being when they see one. Indeed, many hate Cramer because IS so successful. Would that they had one percent of his brainpower, ambition, and energy. The world would be richer, in more ways than one.

  • verypure1 by verypure1 Oct 1, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Wunderlich Securities today initiated coverage on DECK today -- with a "buy" rating and a price target of 121.

  • Reply to

    cha ching!

    by uggs8788 Jul 24, 2014 5:22 PM
    verypure1 verypure1 Jul 24, 2014 7:02 PM Flag

    Indian: I'm really happy that your many positive messages have been vindicated. I'm sure you listened to the conference call today, and heard what I heard: that this company is firing on all cylinders. But it is not a "cash machine," as you say -- a concept that suggests something fairly mindless, like a cement mixer. No, it is a brilliantly-run and aggressively innovative company, thanks to Angel Martinez and those he has hired. It has been a long time since I've heard such a positive conference call. You are surely right that this stock is destined for major gains in the coming months. The only possible glitch would be a general market meltdown.

    Congratulations to all long holders! Tomorrow there is likely to be some serious short covering, and the stock will enjoy a huge leap forward.

DECK
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