For what it is worth from a long-time owner of DECK shares: Don't expect the stock to behave in what you view as a rational fashion. Lots of things inflluence short-term movements of the stock price, even when all signs point to very good earnings. For example, it is my impression that for quite a while now (months), retail-related stocks have been suffering selling and other negativity from large investors, such as hedge funds and institutions. Look at Under Armour, for example. It has gone nowhere for months, yet its sales are booming. So keep the faith if you believe in DECK, and do not sell prematurely. I believe that now is a good time to buy DECK, and I am confident it will be rising well above 100. As you note, DECK is very strong today (unlike UA) in the face of a horrendous downturn in the larger market. This suggests that a bit of rationality might be creeping back to DECK's share price.
Not sure what it says that I am a long-term holder? What it says is that I have enjoyed enormous gains in this stock by refusing to be influenced by what I have viewed as meaningless short-term fluctuations. I did, however, have the good fortune sell a lot of shares about two years ago when the news on the company was somewhat worrisome, and I had the further good fortune to buy back even more shares at an average of 37 about a year after that. But over the longer term I have rarely panicked, and I now own more shares than I have ever owned. As I have said, I am confident that DECK will rise above 100. But of course I could be wrong.
Correction: It was about three years ago -- not two years ago -- that I sold a chunk of shares, and about two years ago that I bought back even more at an average price of about 37. Sorry I was a bit hasty, and did not properly check the dates.
For nice discussion of the rapid rise of Hoka, including the move into hiking boots, Google this story: "Fast-Growing Hoka One One looks to go beyond niche."
Very welcome news for any long-term DECK investor, and another reason to be grateful for the management we have, especially Angel Martinez.
As I recall, DECK was badly shaken in late November 2011 when Sam Poser of Sterne Agee said that his information indicated that UGG sales were weak. He even gave at least one interview (that I saw) reiterating his report. And Poser is probably the most respected analyst of footwear stocks. It looked to him like the end of the UGG "fad," the great bugaboo that has always haunted and depressed the share price of DECK. The next earnings call included other red flags, such as worrisome information about a huge increase in the price of sheepskin and handwringing about the mild winter weather. So the stock went into a free fall, which eventually proved to be an overreaction. The stock then rebounded very powerfully, but did not quite get back to its all-time high.
The recent decline seems also to have resulted from some kind of report about weak sales -- a report that at least one analyst has discounted as marginal and inconsistant with his/her information. That analyst believes this is a buying opportunity. The fad fear seems to be alive and well. Yet UGG sales seemingly continue to boom, and the company is growing in other areas as well (such as Sanuk, Teva, and Hoka One One).
Zohar Ziv, the outgoing COO, announced his retirement about a year ago. He agreed to continue as a consultant until a replacement could be found. He even participated in at least one conference call after his announcement. So a new COO has no negative significance. However, it is interesting that the new COO is a lawyer with a lot of merger and acquisitions experience. This could be a hint about how he will spend some of his time. DECK remains interested in acquiring more companies.
Why are you so optimistic about Hoka? I am just curious to know what you know.
Also, you are surely right that people don't know that Hoka is a DECK brand. Not long ago I talked to a woman who was running in Hokas, and I asked her how she liked them. She was very enthusiastic, and said she wished it were possible to invest in the company, but unfortunately they don't have stock. Needless to say, I educated her.
The Alexa website (a company that tracks web traffic), shows that traffic for UGG is way above last year's. Whereas UGG web traffic always falls steadily after its peak just before Christmas until it hits its summer low, this year it has climbed during the month of February and has still not begun to decline. Obviously this is a result of the cold weather. And it bodes well for earnings this quarter and for restocking orders in the fall.
I just looked at a bunch of recent reviews of HOKA ONE ONE shoes in Zappos, and they are as positive as it is possible to imagine. They remind me a bit of the reviews of UGG boots when people were first discovering them about 2005. I agree that this brand seems likely to bring huge growth to DECK. So of course I think this is a very good time to buy the stock.
I would welcome any posts pertaining to the progress of this brand.
Here's the link: http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/http%253A%252F%252Fwww.uggaustralia.com%252F
I'm surprised I could post it. I thought that Yahoo! does not allow links.
I also have heard (and read in reviews) that people with foot and knee problems are finding HOKAs extremely helpful not only as running shoes but as walking shoes and work shoes. And this fall they are introducing a hiking shoe. Athletic shoes ("speakers') are the largest-selling shoe style, and possible revenues here are huge.
The TEVA president was replaced about a year ago, and I see improvements already on various dimensions, including range of styles and promotion.
algo41: Glad to know you are still involved in DECK. Have you tried HOKAs? I myself am very happy with mine, which I wear both running and walking. You might want to consider buying a pair for walking. (Sorry about my spelling of "sneakers." My computer assumes I am trying to write in French, and often messes up my spelling. This happens only in message posts and other similar functions.)
Also, do you have any new stock ideas? I have been impressed with your past posts.