Z: Boot sales on Zappos do not say anything of significance at all. Those of us who have studied UGG sales over the years know that UGGs are selling significantly well only when UGG Classic Shorts are number one among ALL women's shoes on Zappos -- not merely among boots. You will see this happen again this fall if UGGs are still strong. Right now they are number 10 -- which is quite good for this time of year and a big improvement over a week ago.
Why don't you give us some reports on what salespeople are saying in the UGG stores in New York. That would be a contribution to this board.
Z: Please read my message again. The Classic Short has gone to number one among all shoes for a number of years now. Your opinion is based on your lack of knowledge about this subject.
What you see on the street is never as valuable as hearing from salespeople. As I said, this is something you could contribute to this board.
At this point, we do not know how well UGGs will sell this winter, but the number ten spot among all women's shoes at Zappos is promising. UGG always outsells Converse in the winter. You obviously have no experience with this subject.
Z: No, I have never said what the stock is worth -- never in all the years I have owned it and posted on this board. You should be certain you are right before attacking anyone. It is very bad form.
The great myth that taking a profit is always good. Total garbage. The only reason to sell a stock is if you have information that leads you to believe that the company is in trouble and that the stock will go down. This person who took a profit on DECK is assuring that he or she cannot make a killing on this stock. Very stupid, unless he or she has information indicating the stock is headed lower.
The key to great gains is holding until there is a good reason to sell -- other than to take profits.
It is totally wrong to congratulate a fool who sells a good company's stock -- as stupid as the fool who sells the stock prematurely.
The stop loss order is one of the greatest mistakes made by inexperienced investors. You should sell a stock only when you have information leading you to believe the stock's future is dismal.
jimmach: You seem to have some wisdom. What do you think about UGG sales this year? Are UGGs still alive and well? Thanks in advance.
Thank you. The original article appears in the Pacific Business News (yesterday). My guess is that UGGs are selling mostly to Japanese tourists in Waikiki, but it is still good news. UGGs are doing very well in Japan.
Thank you for this post. This means huge sales for UGG, but it is also slightly worrisome that Deckers is willing to have UGGs sold at a discount.
I wish more people would post news of this kind (also illustrated by the post about the UGG store in Hawaii). We need information about sales, not mere opinions about the value of the DECK shares and criticisms of those who don't believe the shares are undervalued.
Z: I do not wish to debate this, but it is not at all clear that increasing distribution in the US would be a desirable move. UGG executives have long realized that the cache of the product can be lost if the product is too widely available or is available in the wrong channels (such as a warehouse discount chain). Back before you owned DECK it was common for UGG Classics to be widely sold out in most outlets in the US. And Deckers management -- such as founder Doug Otto -- recognized that this was a healthy state of affairs for the UGG brand. The danger is that it should ever be seen as a mass brand that is available everywhere. Part of UGG sales are fashion sales, and fashion despises mass popularity. This is a brief elaboration of my view that the Sam's Club deal might be a mixed blessing at best, at worst a bad move.
Unfortunately, we do not know whether UGGs are going to sell adequately this year. So the article is right to raise the question. This is a continuing issue -- it arises every year -- and it is in my opinion the primary risk in this stock and the primary reason the shares have fallen in price as the 3Q earning approach.
Z: Here you are completely right. As I have said on this board before, Angel Martinez might deserve to be called a shoe genius. He is also simply a brilliant corporate leader, with tremendous vision and an instinct that leads him to seek, encourage, and discover innovation. Listening to him describe the various directions he is taking the company during the conference call today, I felt as much confidence in DECK's future as I have ever felt in the past. For now, DECK is clearly a long-term hold, with no meaningful limit on what it might become.
What do you mean by "first time in history"? This will not be the highest percentage gain in the history of the stock. Leaving aside meaninglessly large percentage gains when the stock was below $5 a share, the largest percentage gain (and absolute gain in points) was October 26, 2007, when it gained 31.11 points, which was a percentage gain of 27.5 percent. Even so, today promises to be the largest gain since then. And I am not complaining!!!
advisorydoc: Thanks for your observations about Hokas. But I guess you didn't see my post on this board about Hokas during the past month or two. I have read numerous customer reviews of Hokas, and your evaluation of them as revolutionary is quite widespread among those who have worn them. I too run in them, and I too view them as revolutionary. They make running possible for countless people with various foot, knee, and other problems, and they make running less strenuous and injurious for virtually everyone.
As I said in my post, the president of Hoka believes Hokas might be a $100 million business within ten years. That seems reasonable to me, and even an underestimate -- partly because I believe their technology can and will be used for a line of walking shoes as well as for many other styles of running shoes.
And I agree that Hokas are another reason to believe DECK has a very bright future. This is an example of a feature of the DECK company about which hardly any "experts" on DECK stock (such as the many short sellers of DECK at hedge funds and those who write about DECK) are even aware.
I expect big news about Hoka in the next couple of years. Hokas are an extremely exciting product. They illustrate the brilliance of Angel Martinez, too, who acquired the brand. I might add that they have allowed him, a former serious runner with physical problems who could no longer run, to run again -- without pain.
Correction: I was wrong to say the president of Hoka thinks it could net $100 million in sales in ten years: He said it could do this much business within a "few" years. He is quoted in the Pacific Coast Business Times, April 5, 2013. Also, my post about Hoka was way back -- August 3 -- so it's understandable that many would not be aware of it. But some of you might want to go back and read what I reported. Hokas are extremely exciting!
advisorydoc: DECK only bought Hoka about two years ago. It's still in diapers, I have complete confidence in Angel to guide this into a major brand. That is what he loves to do, and he will do it. Meanwhile, in my opinion what we know about this brand gives us an edge on others who think they understand DECK.
However, I do not believe Hoka will ever be a lower-priced brand. On that subject I differ with you. DECK likes to own only up-scale brands, and I agree with this strategy.
If you reply to this message, I probably won't have time to respond the rest of the day.
Correction: I just read that DECK only fully acquired Hoka in April of this year. So they have had virtually no time at all to do anything with the new brand. But I'm sure they will.
jacklunkas: Many thanks for this post. Longtime owners of DECK know that this is extremely good news. Years ago Oprah generated huge demand for UGGs by choosing them as one of her "favorite things" for Christmas. And her specific choice is a $300 style!