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Ruby Tuesday, Inc. Message Board

vgacolor1 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 16, 2014 2:21 AM Member since: Feb 19, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Why Shorting USU is so profitable.

    by freespeech73 Jul 14, 2014 9:29 AM
    vgacolor1 vgacolor1 Jul 16, 2014 2:21 AM Flag

    You are partly right. However, there are a couple of assumptions such as the one that the amount of new bonds and amount of stock is supposed to make existing bondholders whole. That would be incorrect. Bondholders know that they are getting a haircut and they know it.

    The value of the equity will depend on how quickly the company can get either the DOE guarantee or under what terms the company can get into an agreement like selling its investment and getting a long term contract as manager in the project. This can not happen while the company is still under BK, and doing it before when the company's performance was weak was not considered a good idea.

    I think that there is value in the company but the bonds are a better place to be if you want to take a chance. I own a few thousand and should get about 4k shares after the exchange. I only regret not doubling my position when the bonds dropped under 20 cents.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    Current Debt on Balance Sheet

    by kingkobexx Jun 12, 2014 6:54 PM
    vgacolor1 vgacolor1 Jun 14, 2014 9:55 PM Flag

    This information is either an honest mistake or a ruse to bash this stock.

    The debt repayments due are as follows.

    2014- $22.7MM
    2015- $31.45MM
    2016- $17.7MM
    2017- $97.45MM
    2018- $10.25MM

    As I have mentioned in my prior posts, the company has enough money to finish the year and probably make it to May/June of next year when another two vessels come off charter. If there has not been an increase in charter rates then it will be time to do something drastic.

    Too much risk for my taste. I will keep an eye to see if the fundamentals of the industry change. Right now the value of those vessels are below the associated debt so there is nothing for stockholders in the case of liquidation.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I continue to be bearish on this stock. Given the updated information and the continued weakness in the industry I see deficient cash flow for the rest of the year and questionable management decisions. I am not saying that I would not invest again in this company, but my entry point would be well under $1 a share and I would consider that to be highly speculative. For previous updates see my previous post "Buyer beware - update" from March 15. Here is what I see with the new info:

    - Actual cash revenue from charters is running about $14 million a quarter. Similar revenue is expected in the second quarter and revenue is expected to decrease to $12 million in quarter 3 and quarter 4. I still expect revenue for the year to come in between $50 million and $52 million.

    -The first Qtr. was unusually bad. I expect the second Qtr. to show minimal profit and losses on the third and fourth Qtr. Overall, losses for the year are still within my $5 million to $10 million projection. My projection assumes that the dry dock expenses of more than $2 million were outsized and won't happen again at that level this year.

    - The secondary offering was a pleasant surprise. The fact that the company was able to raise $10 million is a good thing. This means that unless some other event happens, the company can expect to have about $22 million in cash at the end of the year.

    -The decision to start a buyback even for $5 million seems ill advised. The game plan is to survive until charters come back. Every million will be needed. I understand the temptation of the big guy to increase its ownership by buying other people out, but at the very least they should wait until it is below $1. I hope that it was just smoke and mirrors for the benefit of the analysts covering the announcement.

    -The problem continues to be the depressed charter rates. I do not see them improving sufficiently this year.

    Too risky for my taste

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

6.01-0.16(-2.59%)Jul 31 4:01 PMEDT

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