Nxstage Medical, Inc. Message Board

Watch and see. In todays market-place...Emotion first and thoughfully consider tomorrow. There is still value here.

Sentiment: Hold

I bought Nxstage on the advice of Mom...a 30 year RN who sees the complications of kidney failure everyday. Especially those companies addressing the needs for in-home care. I think I am in the right space, but how Mgmt executes is another story. Given the aging population and the need to reduce costly hospital visits, I like my chances.

Sentiment: Buy

The idiotic posters still claiming BK next year or the Hedge Funds that recently bought hundreds of millions of shares? Given the company´s poor performance the valuation was wrong at $20, but as monumentally wrong under $ 3. Where to from here is somewhere in between, but I´m betting with those that see real value at these levels. Or you can choose to believe the chorus of shorts who can´t accept the inevitable....we go up from here.

FORBES BUSINESS


11/19/2012 @ 5:42PM |6,737 views
The World's Hottest Hedge Fund Manager Thinks Groupon Stock Is A Good Deal

Charles “Chase” Coleman, whose $8 billion Tiger Global hedge fund has been one of the top-performing hedge funds on the planet over the last two years, has taken a big stake in Groupon, the daily deals company whose stock has been the worst-performing major stock in America this year.
According to a Securities & Exchange Commission filing, Tiger Global has taken a 9.9% stake in Groupon, buying up 65 million shares by November 9. The Tiger Global hedge fund, which is co-managed by Feroz Dewan, had previously taken a small stake in Groupon during the third-quarter of the year.
Coleman has been betting on the turnaround of some of the most beaten up tech stocks lately, disclosing stakes in companies like Groupon and Facebook, two companies that staged high-profile initial public offerings that became controversial after their stocks quickly collapsed. The Tiger Global hedge fund recently disclosed a big position of Facebook stock during the third quarter.
Coleman’s Groupon purchase is a bullish sign for the company, whose stock was recently trading hands at $3, but priced at $20 in its IPO one year ago. On the other hand, things have been going so well for Coleman that his hedge fund recently told clients it would return some cash to its investors because the fund had grown too large after posting a 25.5% return so far in 2012,according to the New York Post.

Sentiment: Buy

I read the following article and agree. Yes this stock was over-hyped ( like FB ) and that it was over-valued at the $20 IPO. However, there are too many things going for this company to simply bash it as a scam. Shorts have been right, but at the this valuation, I see incredible upside from here. Or am I missing something?

On Friday, shares of Groupon (GRPN) fell sharply to a new all-time low following an earnings miss reported on Thursday. As shown by the chart below, GRPN shares are now down more than 70% since I recommended that investors avoid shares in my article titled "Groupon Hits New All-Time Low: What You Need To Know." Now, with shares trading below $3 per share, I think GRPN is an interesting speculative long.

GRPN Chart

Here's a look at the earnings highlights:

Loss of $3 million compared to a net loss of $54.2 million a year ago.
Break even on a per share basis compared to a 18 cent per share loss a year ago.
Revenue increased 32% to $568.6 million from $430.2 million a year ago.
Analysts had expected earnings of 3 cents per share and revenue of $590 million.

Clearly, judging by the nearly 30% decline in GRPN shares following the results, it is safe to say that Wall Street was disappointed with the results. On the conference call, GRPN CEO Andrew Mason blamed the weak results on the international segment. In addition to discussing the weakness in the international segment, Mason also discussed the changing distribution channels for GRPN:

And while we believe that our local email business will continue to grow, the real opportunity comes from breaking out of the inbox, not being only pushed but being pulled, not being only demand generation but also being demand fulfillment, which we accomplished by increasing our selection of quality merchants always at unbeatable prices and tapping into traditional e-commerce distribution channels like direct site and search engine traffic. That's our growth strategy boiled down to its essence...

Now I want to talk about a few of the non-email channels that we're optimistic about as we grow our local business, mobile and search engines. As I mentioned earlier, about 1/3 of our transactions in North America now occur on mobile devices. The pace of change here is staggering but not surprising. With the ability to find, buy and redeem deals on the fly, Groupon is a better experience on mobile devices, offering curated, personalized, location-specific deals to fit the form factor of phones and tablets. This is reinforced by the behavior of our mobile users, who spend more and are more likely to buy without the aid of a push email reminder.

Bet on Andrew Mason?

Simply put, since GRPN's IPO at $20 per share a year ago, things have been disastrous for the company. One of the major setbacks for GRPN has been the rise of stiff competition in many of its markets, notably Amazon (AMZN) Deals and Google (GOOG) offers. However, it must be noted that Andrew Mason was the visionary behind the online deals market. While it has not paid to bet on Andrew Mason so far, I think it is naive to say that a turnaround is impossible given what he has already accomplished in a short period of time with GRPN. In just four years, Mason has grown GRPN into a company generating more than $500 million in sales. Certainly, there are problems with GRPN's business right now but I believe Mason is capable of doing what is needed to get GRPN back on track. Mason still owns more than 45 million shares of GRPN, so he certainly still has a personal stake in the success of GRPN.

Cash Per Share

Currently, GRPN has more than $1 billion or $1.82 per share in cash and no debt. With the stock trading below $3, I believe the cash per share could serve as something of a cushion for the stock. When the stock was trading at higher levels, the cash per share was not as relevant. GRPN's strong financial position means that the risk of an extreme adverse event such as bankruptcy is quite low since the company currently has no debt and plenty of cash to finance its operations as needed.

Takeover Candidate

Prior to going public, Google made a takeover bid for GRPN worth $6 billion. Now, with GRPN valued at less than $2 billion a takeover is certainly possible. Of course, speculating on a takeover is always risky but there are many potential buyers including Google, Amazon, Yahoo (YHOO), and others.

Short Interest

As of Oct. 15, when short interest was last reported, more than 32 million shares or 15.5% of the float was sold short. With the stock now trading at an all-time low, I think it is far to late to short the stock. To me, given the floor at $1.82 because of the cash per share, the risk of a buyout or turnaround is far greater than the potential downside. I expect short sellers to realize this and begin to take some gains at these levels. Short covering could lead to a short-term turn in the stock.

Conclusion

While I still remain skeptical of GRPN's business model, I believe it is an interesting speculation under $3. The cash per share, potential takeover, short interest, and possibility of an Andrew Mason led turnaround are all reasons why GRPN shares are likely close to a bottom.

Courtesy - Seeking Alpha

Sentiment: Buy

There is value here. The model is changing, but do not under-estimte this potential of this company...
Say what you will detractors, but this valuation is very wrong.

Sentiment: Strong Buy