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Zillow, Inc. Message Board

viewfinder4 27 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 26, 2014 11:49 AM Member since: Feb 8, 2012
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  • Every day brings Settlement with DOJ one day closer. Meanwhile the depressives are in charge.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Warren increasing shares to buy company soon

    by boughtatprice Jun 25, 2014 2:23 PM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 Jun 25, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    well... i don't get prescience views, if someone has 'em i'd like to see what they have... i am guessing its something about revenue recognition on SHAW... but whatever it is is probably bull relative to these prices for cbi... and if wb doesn't find it unsettling then i am sure not gonna get exercised about it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • viewfinder4 by viewfinder4 Jun 25, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    For creating this buying opportunity... what a lot of bull!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Some interesting facts

    by valueforgoodtk Jun 4, 2014 4:31 PM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 Jun 4, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    How would those put options work? Are they documented somewhere?

  • Reply to

    Russell Reconstitution Date

    by wirtz24184 Jun 2, 2014 5:55 PM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 Jun 2, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    This is a quotation taken from the russell site: "Beginning on June 13, preliminary lists for the additions and deletions to the indexes are communicated to the marketplace. These changes go into effect after the close on Friday, June 27." Here's the link: http://www.russell.com/indexes/americas/tools-resources/reconstitution/frequently-asked-questions.page To me that sounds more like the selling doesn't have to be finished until the end of June but I am unfamiliar with the whole topic and not certain. What we have known since February is that the BDC's will be deleted this year and the decision to delete them was not reversed by what I recall was a May 15 deadline and therefore I think still stands.

  • Reply to

    Russell Reconstitution Date

    by wirtz24184 Jun 2, 2014 5:55 PM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 Jun 2, 2014 6:43 PM Flag

    Are you sure? I thought I read somewhere it was June 27/28th.. It can't come too soon that's for sure... do you know anything about the mechanics of the reconstitution? if the index funds wait until near the date and then sell, if they sell more gradually, if they use options or anything about their methods for liquidating positions?

  • The lawsuits and SEC demands in re accounting changes are forcing the external manager to exercise its fiduciary duty to PSEC shareholders and quit cheating. There would have been no problem with NAV and earnings had the external manager not gotten sloppy/greedy and made a grab for PSEC shareholder returns.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • gotta have a lively sense of the Absurd to hang in there on a stock as oversold as PSEC... and for such transient reasons... takes real fortitude and can't let the idiots' logic get to you.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • viewfinder4 by viewfinder4 May 27, 2014 6:55 PM Flag

    I bought the pullback in BAC because it seems highly unlikely that BAC would be trying to raise its dividend and buy back stock if the proposed dividend level were either ruinous or unsustainable. Who would know best what their litigation reserves are and their real risks? a bunch of seeking alpha pundits or BAC execs and directors? and are the latter going out of their way to do foolish junk that will lose them their jobs? The whole debate reaches absurd levels when you think this is a bank that can earn 3 or 4B per quarter and is talking about paying divs of 1/2 B and is expected to grow earnings at 19%... let's get real people! BAC can learn from its mistakes as all businesses do... the current debate appears to have been resolved as of today's trading and not in favor of the bearish boogaboo's. If I hadn't loaded up to the max on the pullback i'd still be buying.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • viewfinder4 by viewfinder4 May 23, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    Income investors are going to just keep bidding PSEC up. If the div were 8 cents a share per month it'd be worth what it is currently trading for.

    I see the price action as either quite whacko or simply suggesting that naive investors believed the rate of return infinitely elastic upwards. Its not and so what?

    I am buying while it remains sub-NAV... is among the best BDC's despite the hair splitting of seeking alpha types.

    I'll bet the insiders are gnashing their teeth or enlisting their nephews to buy at these prices if they themselves are restricted due to the SEC look at accounting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • viewfinder4 by viewfinder4 May 22, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    1. I find it curious that both PSEC and the well regarded asset manager BX have both moved heavily into rental apartment properties and make plausible arguments for the productivity of that strategy... for both income and capital gains.
    2. It's also interesting that the bond rally that started at the end of December seems to have come to an end over the last week or so, i.e. interest rates have stopped going down and started back up... which can benefit PSEC's earnings a lot given what we all know about their fixed rate borrowing and floating rate lending.
    3.The late February announcement about how index funds and etf's holding bdc's having to include bdc expenses as their own, was kind of nutty but has caused persistent pressure on the entire industry, almost all the bdc's are down over that time period. I will be very un-surprised if we find out that when that selling pressure is over after the mid-June reconstitution of the indices. Maybe then the BDCs can trade more on valuation and less on extraneous factors and make easier price progress.
    4.I think a debt to equity limit is being approached that will may make the external manager concentrate more on increasing the rate of retun as opposed to growth of assets under management. I think there's a tipping point where the external manager makes more money for both itself and for PSEC shareholders by concentrating on rate of return.
    ... all of which I think may push PSEC price right back up toward NAV over the next few weeks or months, and also may move NAV up over the remainder of 2014.

  • Reply to

    Twist and Shout!

    by viewfinder4 May 14, 2014 7:29 PM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 May 16, 2014 11:47 PM Flag

    well... you know... no point in splitting hairs, we all do the same thing... we say what if this (and do our best to attach a probability) and what if that (and attach a probability) and then we make the best choice we can... works sometimes and sometimes not.

  • Reply to

    Twist and Shout!

    by viewfinder4 May 14, 2014 7:29 PM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 May 16, 2014 10:08 AM Flag

    I don't think anyone has a crystal ball... not even the execs that run public companies. Time tends to allow for things to get better. Time allows for business conditions to improve, price to recover, for etf's to finish their selling, for PSEC management to build a better portfolio, for mistakes to be corrected, and for all the discouraged folk who won't even buy at sub-NAV prices to finish their selling.

  • viewfinder4 by viewfinder4 May 14, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    The critics have done a great job of gnawing on every small defect they imagine they have found in PSEC and given folks quite a fright. Each "discovery" is twisted into an insinuation that PSEC management are greedy, stupid frauds with intractable business problems.

    So here's my question: WHAT IF all the problems are exaggerated and PSEC is perfectly able to operate their business successfully as they have for the last decade? What if there turns out to be plenty of ways in their 6 or 8 lines of business to make up for a few missed origination fees? What if the SEC thing is just a lot of bs? What if PSEC has made some mistakes and learned from them??? Apparently PSEC thinks that it can pay the current div level just fine and I will make the following prediction: within the next month we'll learn that PSEC insiders have been buying.

    I think a lot of folks are gonna feel real dumb about buying high and selling low.

    Personally I like PSEC down here at a steep discount to book cuz I figure that IF any of the supposed problems are real PSEC has all year to make adjustments and work it out while I collect their big fat sub-NAV priced divs. So I guess you might say that I'm not buyin' the "greedy, stupid frauds" thesis as I've seen it all before a zillion times and have noticed that when you buy down here? that's when you make money.

    I could be wrong but I am squatting on my position, adding as i can, and the shorts won't be covering from me on the cheap... me not becoming "Supply".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    So let me get this straight . . .

    by sigallbenjamin May 12, 2014 5:40 PM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 May 12, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    I agree. The bears and shorts are gonna have to work a lot harder to convince me that PSEC management are incompetents and frauds. That is the constant subtext to their critiques which I find more and more ludicrous and contradictory to the announcement of divs thru the end of 2014 and the buying and holding of insiders.

    We're now at a discount of as much as $0.65 to NAV and have $0.77 divs in the pipeline. I'll be buying more, not selling.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • You guys can debate how many accountants can stand on the head of a pin if you like... I'll just keep buying as much PSEC as I can while the price is stupid cheap and the shorts are arranging for us all to have the opportunity to scoop up some free sub-NAV money... will also buy BIZD because as much fun as this has been for shorts and as much as its been all the rage to bang these companies down? it'll be the same opportunists who will not be able to get enough of them within a few days or weeks.

    The notion that SEC is first going to get them kicked out of all the index/etf related funds and then pile on with ruinous regulation and enforcement is just a lot of bull... you have to believe that the SEC is in the business of making it hard for middle market companies to function and trying to reduce that part of the economy to third world status, it all strikes me as extremely implausible.

    I accept at face value management's assertion that 2/3's of the 3rd qtr deals closed too late to add to earnings and that they will add in future quarters.

    The PSEC chart looks exactly like they all do before they "miraculously" recover... if you bought good companies when they look like this? you'd be right 95% of the time and the 5% you'd be wrong? wouldn't matter, you'd be enjoying life on your yacht too much to care.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    looks like "short 'r toast day" ...

    by viewfinder4 May 8, 2014 12:19 PM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 May 8, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    remember the last big sell off to 9.80? how PSEC ground it out that day trading millions and millions of shares in a narrow price band around 9.80? i am guessing the end is near... what the catalyst will be this time who knows? could be the SEC say ok... forget the new accounting rules for all bdc's that are tanking it out of etf/s and indices. maybe the SEC gets their consolidated accounting and it turns out PSEC looks even better. could be insider buying makes folks feel safe enough not to be bullied lower by the rabid short interest... could just be a general market with a better tone or rising interest rates that benefit floating rate loans... who knows... my guess... the reversal is near. do people want to sell it lower? ok... fine... sell me more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    looks like "short 'r toast day" ...

    by viewfinder4 May 8, 2014 12:19 PM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 May 8, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    you might be right but i think this is just yet another bear raid on PSEC.

    in re your caution on their accounting... if you do an apples to apples comparison then the 10.68 NAV/Price is ridiculous. if you prefer to worry about what the comparisons may be from their previous metrics to any new accounting regime SEC imposes then the implication is that PSEC was cheating on their accounting for a decade? my answer is: i don't know of any other frauds that have paid out more in divs than the price of the stock so i have hard time with the concept that this is a bunch of guys out to bilk the public.

    plus, regardless of how the accounting is done, PSEC apparently feels that they made the money and have the bucks to commit to paying out 7 divs thru year end... that strikes me as really odd behavior for a bunch of frauds who might wish to stay out of jail and be able to go home to their cocker spaniels at night.

    now we've got yet another genius from motley fool (aptly named) saying that he sees declining yields on PSEC debt.

    my problem with this kind of pot shot is that it is contrary to what, ok i ADMIT IT, is a simplistic view of PSEC. my view of the company is that its a bunch of people who go to work every morning and do their best to optimize returns and who beat the #$%$ out of almost every other bdc out there, and who, in any case recognize and devise inventive solutions to observations like the motley fool's latest complainer (who i assume is also going to miss out on not only the 13% divs but also the 5 to 10% quick capital gains in share price that i foresee once the bottom is in and shorts see fit to start covering in droves as they always do).

    so... maybe i will be wrong but... if i really strain i can see the index/etf selling continuing to pressure PSEC for another few weeks but you know what? i feel real comfortable betting big that the same goofs who are shorting it now will be bidding it up up up after june 15, at the latest.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • above 10.20 shorts start to play "give-back + a div" ... don't think they'll fancy that too much when they sober to the new reality.

    maybe they'll say prayers for a couple of weak general market days but the smart ones will simply switch sides... and for sure the hft's will detect the inflection point in supply/demand balance if we have reached it.

    maybe i'll be wrong but the way i look at it, first there's nothing wrong with psec, second short interest has gone up and up, third with 10 to maybe as much as 12m shares short, they'll soon be paying $1.3m in month end divs for the privilege of losing money. i guess its possible that there might be a contingent that has bet so heavily on puts that its worth it to them to attempt to hold down stock price thru the 3rd friday but... am guessing that'll be a losing battle... should trade up into month end even with the index selling, if there's any of that left (but i think the index selling has been totally exaggerated/anticipated by now).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Only fools will try to time the bottom

    by alta1056bc May 8, 2014 9:18 AM
    viewfinder4 viewfinder4 May 8, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    so, lemme see now... you geniuses won't buy at 10.10 but you'll buy when it gets back to 10.20? 10.35? 10.95? where do geniuses buy??? ha ha ha! psec is stupid cheap... if it gets cheaper that's even better. personally i don't think there's a single thing wrong with this company... there's no reason not to use their normal accounting as a benchmark of value... and if they are confident they can pay the next 7 months of divs then why in the world would you be scared by the nuances of accounting junk? shorts have banged the bdc's to death and psec has been a special target of silliness to nth degree... just my opinion... but as i said... as soon as insiders start buying and their buying gets published? or even before... watch out... is all upside.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

Z
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